So it seems like every year when the draft comes around there’s always a top 2-3 that are “guaranteed” not to fail, and then the rest are just kind of a crap shoot. Which got me thinking… How well does each draft spot actually pan out in the NBA? Well I found an article that I wanted to share with everyone that estimated the average Win Shares of every draft spot since the ABA merger. Now the article is pretty lengthy so I’m just going to give an abbreviated version and let you take from it what you will.
First… Let’s define what a Win Share actually is (for anyone who doesn’t know). So Win Shares are based on the combination of both Offensive and Defensive productivity. Offensive Win Shares are calculated by taking a players points produced over a season and their offensive possessions and dividing it by their points produced in wins during that season and their offensive possessions in those wins. Defensive Win Shares are calculated by taking a players Defensive rating (or points allowed per 100 defensive possessions) throughout the season, and dividing it by their Defensive rating in their wins. These two scores are then added together to determine a players estimated Win Shares for that particular season. (if you’re still not 100% sure what this means I can try to explain further).
But with that… Let’s take a look at how each draft position has averaged since the ABA merger. (We’ll just take a look at the Lottery picks). The Average Win Shares are the average of the estimated wins added by each player selected at that position throughout the course of their career. (Study was conducted prior to the 2021 season).
The #1 pick HAS in fact produced the highest average win share at 73.9. The highest being…. You guessed it…. LeBron James at 236.4 estimated wins produced over the course of his career. The lowest… Also a Cleveland pick, Anthony Bennett who added just half a win in his VERY short career.
The #2 pick drops SIGNIFICANTLY down to only 49.7 average Win Shares. The highest being The Glove Gary Payton.
The #3 pick actually averages the second highest Win Shares at 60.9. The highest being Michael Jordan. The Boston Celtics have made a living at the 3rd overall pick taking guys like Kevin McHale, Jaylen Brown, and Jayson Tatum. Other Notable guys here at #3, Dominique Wilkins, Chauncey Billups, Pau Gasol, and James Harden.
The #4 pick has produced just below the #2 pick with 49.4 estimated Win Shares on average. The highest being the Point God himself, Chris Paul.
The #5 pick comes with one of the biggest surprise as it hold the 3rd best average Win Shares at 53. The Highest being Kevin Garnett.
The #6 picks; however, takes the cake as the biggest shock. This pick’s average Win Shares is only 28. Almost half as many wins as the pick just before it. The highest here is the great Larry Bird (hmm… another Celtic).
The #7 jumps back up to 36.9 Win Shares with Steph Curry holding the highest (and still going).
The #8 has an average of 31.8 Win Shares (still more than #6), with Jack Sikma of the Sonics holding the top spot here.
The #9 holds another big surprise as this spot averages out to 46 Win Shares. If you’re keeping track that’s only 3.7 fewer win shares than the #2 overall pick, and the 4th best on the board, and almost 13 wins better than the pick just before.
Let’s pause here to look at some examples of the difference a pick can make 1998 #8 Larry Hughes, #9 Dirk Nowitzki. 1999 #8 Andre Miller, #9 Shawn Marion. 1997 #8 Adonal Foyle, #9 Tracy McGrady. 2002 #8 Chris Wilcox, #9 Amar’e Stoudemire. 2004 #8 Rafael Araujo, #9 Andre Iguodala. 2007 #8 Brandon Wright, #9 Joakim Noah. 2009 #8 Jordan Hill, #9 DeMar DeRozan. 2011 #8 Brandon Knight, #9 Kemba Walker. Yikes! Okay, let’s get back to it if you’re still following.
The #10 comes in at an average of 35 Win Shares, with The Truth himself Paul Pierce holding the top spot (another Celtic).
The #11 has an average of 32.3 Win Shares, with Reggie Miller at the top (still better than #6).
The #12 plummets down to 23.4 Win Shares, with (yet another Celtic) Cedric Maxwell at the top.
The #13 pops back up to 31.7 Win Shares JUST below the #8 pick and still above pick #6, with The Mailman Karl Malone holding the top spot.
The #14 drops back down to 24.4 win Shares with Clyde The Glyde Drexler at the top.
And the last pick of the Lottery #15 stands at 23.1 Win Shares, with Steve Nash on top.
So what does this tell us? Well… For one… The Boston Celtics REALLY know how to draft. If you have the 6th overall pick, TRADE IT! And for all you Chet fans out there…. Be wary…. The Curse of the #2 pick seems to have already started. As for the rest… Maybe the draft isn’t the biggest crap shoot after all. After the 5th pick there is a trending decline (with the exception of #9).
Thank you for anyone who made it this far and I hope you enjoyed the post.
Please like and follow!