I think he should make it as a reserve.
His stats: 21/7/5 44/40/88
Fred has become the leader of the Raptors team that has stormed into a tie for the 8th seed in the East. He brings all NBA level defence, is one of the best 3 point shooters in the NBA (5th in 3pt makes), and far more efficient while playing a hefty amount of minutes. His net +/- is an outstanding +18.1 and the Raptors are 6 points better when he's on the court. He's everything an all-star point guard is, hard-nosed elite defence, playmaking, rebounding, elite and efficient shooting, impact on the team is beyond good, excellent advanced stats including being the 4th in WAR in all of the NBA, and even his team is starting to hit its stride as they have finally been healthy the last 3 games and are now sitting tied with the 8th seed at 17-17.
Like many players, there are some reasons why he may not make it. Such as his style of play not being as flashy as his counterparts and just the competition is very heated and not the best on-ball shot-creator like the others.
But regardless, he still gets the job done, flashy or not and his great off-ball movement makes up for some lack of consistent good on-ball creation