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The March Madness Champion Will Be…


March Madness is just three months away. It’s the best time of year (until your champion loses to the 14 seed). I just get consumed by March Madness all of March, but the worst feeling in the world during March Madness is when the team you chose to win it all is losing at valid time to a team not favored to win at all. About 90% of brackets most years do not get the champion correct, however this will show you how to choose the correct champion.

I have gotten the past three champions correct in March madness using a formula that has worked to tell you who will win. Obviously I can’t tell you who will win the championship rn, but this is what the stats say if the season ended now. March Madness isn’t as unpredictable as people think. First, you take the top 7-10 teams in the country, then record these stats. You record PPG, OPPG, 3P%, FT%, FG%, and RPG. This year, the top 7 teams in the country according to the latest poll is Baylor, Duke, Purdue, Gonzaga, UCLA, Kansas, and USC. These are the teams I used.


TeamPPGOPPG3p%FT%FG% & RPG
Baylor83.356.835.865.848.8 & 41.1
Duke85.364.436.875.949.4 & 37.7
Purdue87.26641.173.851.6 & 41.7
TeamPPGOPPG3P%FT%FG% & RPG
Gonzaga85.662.534.669.252.1 & 42.3
UCLA81.165.63970.445.4 & 41.2
Kansas8666.937.769.352.1 & 35.9
USC75.960.735.258.448.8 & 42.2

This is an example of the things I used. The amount you needed to qualify for each is 77 PPG, less than 70 OPPG, more than 35% 3P (fun fact: a team has never won below 32.9% 3p%), more than 70% FT%, more than 46% FG%, and finally, more than 38 RPG. The formula is so accurate I don’t even want to hear, “stats don’t tell the whole story”. As you may be able to tell, Purdue has qualified for all of them. While this could be due to small sample size, Purdue as of now is for sure the contender to be the March Madness Champion. I would like to make something clear. THIS WILL CHANGE BEFORE MARCH MADNESS, I COULD COMPLETELY CHANGE MY MIND! However, the Boilermakers are the favorites to win March Madness as they are the perfectly built team to win it.

Last year, the Baylor Bears fit every single category, some easily. They were the prototype of a March Madness champion. They were easy to predict. They were a great shooting and rebounding team. They were also good on both ends.

Now, Purdue fit every category. How many did the other team’s fit? Baylor just lost FT%, by about 4%. Duke lost RPG, Gonzaga lost 3P% and FT%. UCLA lost just FG%. They could be an enticing team to watch soon. They could easily go on a long run with their superb three point shooting and solid rebounding. Kansas lost FT% and rebounding. USC lost 3 categories, and only won 3P% by 0.2%. They are one team that will lose really early in March Madness. I predict they will lose in the first or second round.

Baylor: Elite 8 or Final 4

Duke: Final Four or Championship L

Purdue: March Madness Champion

Gonzaga: Elite 8

UCLA: not sure, gonna predict Sweet 16 L

Kansas: Sweet 16 or Elite 8

USC: L in 1st or 2nd round

Keep in mind we are over 3 months away from March Madness, and things are very very likely to change. Thanks for reading! Good luck making March Madness brackets!

Also, one more thing: no team has ever won March Madness if their coach had a beard.


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