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Knicks overhaul roster and get two new starting guards


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Pacers

Pacers

+2 players ($26.1m),
Cap Impact + $3.5M

-1  Wins

+0.07  MPG

+0.30  Off.

+0.93  Def.

Knicks

Knicks

+4 players ($54.4m) +3 picks,
Cap Impact - $11.4M

-3  Wins

-0.03  MPG

+1.92  Off.

-1.35  Def.

76ers

76ers

+1 player ($10.0m),
Cap Impact + $12K

+3  Wins

+0.12  MPG

+0.61  Off.

-0.80  Def.

Cavaliers

Cavaliers

+2 players ($23.8m),
Cap Impact + $1.9M

+1  Wins

-0.16  MPG

-2.83  Off.

+1.22  Def.

This is mostly three separate deals rolled into one, so I’ll look at each separately.

Trade 1: Randle and Reddish for Brogdon and #31

The Knicks need a true point guard more than anything else, and Brogdon is the perfect type of player for them. He’s in his prime, he can seamlessly handle being on-ball or off-ball, he can set the table for Barrett and Quickley, he can play good defense, it’s all there. Randle had one year where he looked amazing, but their offense overall goes nowhere since no one on the team is a great playmaker, so this trade fixes that. It also opens up a starting spot for Obi Toppin, who has really earned a look as a full time starter. Moving Reddish is a bummer, but he didn’t play particularly well, and this means the Knicks essentially gave up a protected first and are getting back pick #31, which isn’t too bad.

The Pacers might have some initial hesitation about this move, as it seems to recreate the Sabonis-Turner logjam again. However, they’re pretty weak at forward. Isaiah Jackson has shown some interesting flashes, but Goga Bitadze is a pure center, T.J. Warren is injured and a free agent, and Oshae Brissett is far from a core piece. They get to add the only player in this deal who’s made an All-Star game in Randle, plus take a flyer on Reddish at SF. In the backcourt, Halliburton is obviously their PG of the future, so Brogdon likely would’ve been stuck playing off-ball anyway. Now Hield can continue to provide his spacing at the 2, T.J. McConnell will still be their bench PG, and Chris Duarte and a possibly re-signed Rubio give them even more depth. This deal definitely balances out the roster more, plus gives them the player who can theoretically be the best one in Randle.

Trade 2: Derrick Rose and Nerlens Noel for Collin Sexton and Lamar Stevens

The Cavs are in a weird spot with Sexton. They had a lot of success without him last year, and while much of that can be contributed to Mobley, Markkanen, and LeVert, it does still sorta feel like he’s the odd man out. Reportedly, the Cavs don’t want to pay him much more than $15 mil, and they don’t think he’ll be able to get that. In this deal, they get to profit off him leaving without letting him walk for nothing. Rose is exactly what they really needed with Sexton out; a dynamite scoring sixth man, who knows his role and fits in with the team. Upgrading from Stevens to Noel is a nice bonus, and will ensure that their massive lineups can continue to succeed even if one or two of their bigs are hurt.

For the Knicks, this is taking a gamble on Sexton. Here, I have them signing him to a 2+1 deal with a team option for the third year, at 20 mil a year (coincidentally, the exact same deal they originally signed Julius Randle to from New Orleans). The parallels run deeper too: both were glorified sixth men playing on poor teams, that put up good stats while having a reputation as a bit of an empty stats guy. As much as he gets ragged on, Sexton put up 24-3-4 on 57.3% true shooting in 2021 on a barren roster. For comparison, Jamal Murray put up 21-4-5 on 59.2% TS, with one of the best passers in the league feeding him the ball. Sexton might never end up on Murray’s level, but for a team that’s stuck in mediocrity, that’s the kind of guy you want to take a gamble on. At the worst, you’ve found a younger version of Derrick Rose, and you’re overpaying for him, but he’s gone in two years. High reward, not too much risk.

Trade 3: Burks to the 76ers for Green and 2 seconds

This is a pretty easy one. Burks was on the 76ers before he signed with the Knicks, and gave them good minutes. They’re desperate for any reliable depth at all, and a spark plug sixth man who can also play decent defense fits the bill. Danny Green unfortunately may never play in the NBA again, but his deal is entirely non-guaranteed. The Knicks would definitely waive him, saving 10 million, while also getting them two future picks and clearing up a roster spot in the backcourt that they’ll need after adding Brogdon and Sexton. At the end of all these deals, the Knicks would have a hefty 21.3 million to play with in free agency, and could either throw that money at a young guy like Miles Bridges, see if they can sign and trade Mitchell Robinson for DeAndre Ayton, or try and add some veteran depth at forward like T.J. Warren or Thaddeus Young.

Final roster for the Knicks If I’m the Knicks, I’m obviously starting Brogdon, and I’d go with Sexton at the 2 spot. Quickley is best as a slashing 2 in my opinion, and ideally he’d get the opportunity to start. However, the Knicks are banking on Sexton being possibly a star, and he does have a track record of actually putting up great volume on solid efficiency. Give him an actual point guard in Brogdon and an actual complimentary scorer in Barrett (and Brogdon as well), and he might have a career renaissance like a poor man’s Booker. And if he flops, he can always switch roles with Quickley, and let him have his chance to shine.

Barrett is obviously going to be the starting 3, and as mentioned before, Toppin will get the nod at the 4 here. I’m excited to see what he can do in bigger minutes, as he really was pretty dependable for them. At the 5, I’m just going to assume Mitchell Robinson resigns with them for the sake of this exercise, so we’ll pencil him in there.

On the wings, the still have great depth in Quickley, Fournier, and Duarte. Again, I don’t know if Quickley really is a true PG who can run a unit by himself, even a bench squad. But similar things were said about his Kentucky compatriot Tyrese Maxey, and him getting a lot of primary ballhandler reps in bench units or when Simmons sat out did wonders for his development. Fournier struggled last year to an extent, and ran hot and cold at times. Yet he still shot 39% from deep on nearly 8 attempts a night, so he’s clearly still a high-level marksman. Against backups, Fournier should only do better. Him and Grimes should form an effective 3-D wing tandem off the bench, and maybe Deuce McBride even gets the occasional run.

There’s really no backup bigs on the roster with Noel gone, other than Taj Gibson (who always feels a year from retirement, but is somehow still playing decent minutes). Lamar Stevens is a competent fifth or sixth big in a rotation, but ideally not a primary backup. However, the Knicks would still have all that cap space mentioned (or at least whatever wasn’t used on Robinson), plus picks #11, #31, and #42. I ran a mock here on FanSpo, and ended up with Jalen Duren (tough pick over Sochan, Branham, and Dieng, but I like Duren as a potential Mitch replacement), Jalen Williams, and David Roddy. I’d say that pretty much solves our 4-5 depth, no problem.

All in all, this has the makings of a balanced team. Brogdon is a dependable playmaking PG, all 3 of the starting perimeter players are capable of averaging 20 ppg, all four players other than Robinson can shoot threes, and all four players other than Sexton are plus defenders (and I believe even he can be a good one if he plays on a decent team). Similar arguments can be made for the bench, which is as deep as ever, if not moreso. This team is younger, more athletic, and finally would have a cohesive unit that wasn’t just based on Julius Randle 18 foot iso jumpers, while still being solid across the board defensively. The Knicks are currently stuck with no clear direction, but an overhaul like this would really give them one.

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