I hope you like VERY thorough analysis.

Disclaimer: The Blazers have a top-10 player in Dame, and should probably never trade him until he specifically asks to leave. Don’t get your knickers in a twist “bUt hE WanTs tO sTaY,” I know that he’s said that for now. And I also know this trade might lead to some other roster turnover elsewhere for the Blazers, but I didn’t wanna distract from the main focus by trying to find a home for McCollum elsewhere for example. If you’re really curious what a true “blow it up” Lillard & McCollum deal would look like, feel free to check this trade of mine out (which does not involve Simmons): https://fanspo.com/nba/s/general/trades/x9CwAFmaj5rGlw/wizards-finally-contend-celtics-power-up-and-blazers-completely-rebuild

With that said I created this trade on the following premise: what is the most we could possibly offer the Blazers, and would that deal still be reasonable?

If I’m the Blazers, I’m asking for everything not nailed down. Simmons, two firsts, and four swaps is just the starting point (technically we can’t offer some of the swaps because of our protected 2025 pick owed to OKC, but I’m sure they’d be more than happy to lift those protections if we tossed them a second rounder). But anyway, if I’m Portland, I’m asking for all the young talent on the team too; Thybulle, Maxey, AND Springer. Sending back Snell and Zeller (two more old minimum guys) to balance the rosters is no loss. However, if I’m feeling REALLY greedy I’m saying “we want your third best player too, hand over Tobias.” As Portland, I’m rebuilding if Dame is gone, so losing Covington (who’s expiring) and Nance (a solid vet, but unspectacular) for a younger 20 ppg scorer on a long deal is a real nice add for me.

When the dust settles, the Blazers are actually still left with a pretty decent roster, and one that fits Simmons (and McCollum) really well. I’d assume they’d start CJ, Powell, Harris, Simmons, and Nurkic. CJ would finally get to be the true lead guy, and he did averaged a gaudy 27-5-6 per-36 when playing without Lillard, so it may be that there’s a true lead guard in there. However, he’d also have Simmons to handle some playmaking, and both Norm and Tobi can create their own shot, so he wouldn’t be put in a position where he HAS to create everything, because I frankly don’t think he’s a Lillard or Harden who IS capable of that, and that’s okay. Similarly, Simmons could be running around, pick and rolling, setting off ball screens, and cutting in a more free-flowing offense where everyone on the floor other than him (and Nurkic) are capable of creating something. No more chilling in the dunker’s spot while his center posts up on the other block. If the Blazers want, they could even swap out Maxey for Nurk in some lineups, and play a 5-ballhandler setup that would be sure to stress the defense everywhere, and provide spacing for some of the easy layups and dunks that will get Simmons’s head on right. Since they’re trading Nurk’s backup in Zeller, they might be forced to experiment with Simmons at center mode anyway. But the last time Simmons played center, he dropped 42-9-12 on Rudy Gobert’s head, so maybe it’s something worth an extended look.

Off the bench, the Blazers backcourt will be stacked with young talent. Maxey and Anfernee Simons can light it up. Thybulle is already a defensive chaos agent with a burgeoning offensive game. Springer is a solid but raw prospect who spend a year developing in the G League. They don’t really have much in the way of young bigs outside of potentially Nassir Little, but oh well; can’t fix a team with one trade. And indeed, there are other trades they might want to make. They are trading 5 relatively old players (Nance is the youngest at 28, and Lillard is the oldest at 31) for four guys who are 25 and under, with 29 year old Harris being the oldest of the bunch. Norm is 28, and on his long term deal, they could reasonably consider him a part of the future. But Nurkic is expiring and has an iffy fit with Simmons, and McCollum is on the wrong side of thirty and may not want to sit through a rebuild. I would imagine both would be candidates to be moved, but of course, that just means more assets for the Blazers! I would personally swap Nurk for a lower wattage version of himself (maybe a Derrick Favors type) and pick up some draft capital, and ideally see if you can find a cheap stretch big to complement Simmons as a backup, even if it’s just a minimum guy like Gorgui Dieng. I’d probably hold onto McCollum and see if his value goes up once I hand him the keys to the offense, because if he actually averaged 27-5-6 over a full season, he’d have no shortage of suitors. But if they want to embrace the tank, they could move him - or even Harris - sooner rather than later to a team that feels like it’s a piece away from contention.

Now onto the 76ers. They’re getting a lot older and losing some upside, but they’re also losing only two starters and getting three back, which isn’t a bad piece of work. And since Embiid is in his prime and was the front runner for MVP (at least according to Vegas) before his injury, it does make sense to go all-in now. That’s especially true when factoring in his injury history which makes the length of his championship window a bit of a mystery. Dame would be easily the best player Embiid has ever played with, and this would give the front office to rectify their mistake of not trading Simmons for Harden, though perhaps the Rockets never would’ve traded him back to Morey anyway. Two top ten players immediately vaunts you into the title contending conversation. Only the Nets and Lakers really can claim that, and they’re arguably the two teams most favored to win the title.

However, the fit is a bit murky. We’ve never seen Dame play off a post-up center before, and we’ve never seen Embiid run a heavy dose of pick and rolls. Is that due to preference/ability, or just personnel? I’d say a little bit of both; at least for Embiid, he DID have a point guard who didn’t shoot outside of 5 feet, which makes pick and rolls tough. Yet even with other players in the game that do enjoy it, he seems to prefer wrestling for post position, or fading to the three point line when he does set screens. Maybe that’s a conditioning thing, maybe it’s a “I don’t want to hurt myself coming down after a lob thing,” I don’t know. He does occasionally roll hard after running a DHO with Curry or Redick before him, so he’s certainly capable, but currently it’s a rarity. And Lillard would be going from having two guys he can trust to generate a decent shot in Norm and CJ to really none, if Curry is coming off the bench (which I’ll get to later). That could be a lot to ask of a guy whose load was already pretty high, and he’s not a super high-level passer either on the level of Bron or Harden. Embiid can create his own offense too of course, but it’s definitely different and could take some adjusting, especially since he’s not an assisting savant either. My money would be on them figuring it out, but it’s not quite a seamless fit.

Yet the problems really come down to the lineups you put around them. The 76ers keeping Curry is a huge steal here. Off the top of my head, I can’t name another player who can average 20 ppg in the playoffs that are making less than 10 million on a non-rookie deal. He doesn’t fit the timeline in Portland at all, so I think we’d be able to hold onto him given everything else we’re giving up, but I digress. Anyway, let’s assume Curry, Green, and Covington start. That is a reallllly small lineup outside of Embiid. Curry and Lillard is far from the best defensive backcourt I’ve ever seen. Green is a pretty good perimeter defender in his own right, but he doesn’t have the size to match up with the bigger perimeter players like Jimmy Butler, Jayson Tatum, Giannis, KD, LeBron, etc. Covington is an amazing defender, but he’s more of a help side rotation and passing lane guy, not a 1-on-1 lockdown guy. With his thin frame, he has no chance of even really slowing down anyone on that list other than maybe KD, and even that is a huge ask. I think Nance has to start. He’s got the size to guard bigger dudes, has experience playing anywhere from the 3 to the 5, can hit the occasional 3, and has just developed into a really good all-around defender. He was near the top of the league in steals and deflections before his injury last year, and might’ve even made an All-Defense team if he’d stay healthy, though Cleveland was so bad overall that I wouldn’t be surprised if this is the first you’re hearing of it. But even if he starts, who else? As long as Curry is starting, you’ve got two undersized guys to hide in defense in him and Lillard, and I just don’t know if that’s sustainable in the playoffs. And if he does start, all-bench lineups (which you know Rivers will run, like, ALL THE TIME) will be relying on Shake Milton, or maybe occasionally Furkan/Drummond to be their primary playmaker. Try to read that last sentence without throwing up! This is where losing Maxey really hurts. So I would say Curry should be the one to come off the bench, at least in matchups against teams like the full-strength Nets that have 3 legit perimeter threats that we need 3 defenders to guard.

Yet even there, there are problems down the rotation. The starting lineup looks set with three 3-D guys next to Dame and Embiid, but the bench looks suspect. Curry’s shooting and decent ballhandling compared with Drummond’s putbacks and occasional dimes are enough to run a pretty damn good offensive bench unit, as both are borderline starters. Presumably they’d be joined by Shake, Furkan, and Niang, so we wouldn’t lack for spacing or scoring at all. But outside of Drummond’s rebounding, not a single one of those players is even remotely good at defense. Snell could be a good option on some nights, and it’s nice to have a guy that you can throw in alongside pretty much any group of guys and know you’ll get competent 3-D production, but he’s not good enough to supplant anyone I already listed on a regular basis. Zeller is a vastly overqualified third string center, and having him is huge on nights when Embiid is resting or hurt, but he’s exclusively a 5 and doesn’t provide any versatility or depth elsewhere. At least one of Isaiah Joe or Paul Reed could make a case for a spot in the regular rotation, and if the preseason is to be believed, Joe might not be far from being a better version of Shake Milton already. Maybe it WOULD be better to bring Green off the bench for just a little defense, or maybe to play Snell over Niang as a smaller 4, but regardless, there’s some question marks here. Trading 4 members of your projected rotation will do that.

At the end of the day, the 76ers would have to say this: we’ve got two top-10 guys, a solid starting lineup around them, and some interesting pieces off the bench… but we also are relatively shallow, don’t own any of our picks for the next 7 years, and have little to no cap space or other means of acquiring assets.

Can they afford to do so? Or, after missing out on Harden, can they afford NOT to?