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Roleplayers for a potential star - Suns move for Collins - Hawks get Crowder


SUCCESS

Hawks

Hawks

+3 players ($28.9m) +2 picks,
Cap Impact - $1.8M
  • Jae Crowder
    Jae Crowder
    SF, 6' 6", 1.43 LEBRON
    Stationary Shooter

    $10.1M

    1yr

    24
  • Dario Saric
    Dario Saric
    PF, 6' 10", 0.65 LEBRON
    Versatile Big

    $9.2M

    1yr

    24
  • Landry Shamet
    Landry Shamet
    SG, 6' 4", -1.02 LEBRON
    Movement Shooter

    $9.5M

    4yrs

    24
  • draft-pick-player

    2023 - Round 2

    24
  • draft-pick-player

    2023 - Round 1

    24

+2  Wins

+66.38  MPG

+0.48  Off.

+0.52  Def.

Suns

Suns

+3 players ($29.8m),
Cap Impact + $868K
  • Justin Holiday
    Justin Holiday
    SG, 6' 6", -1.08 LEBRON
    Movement Shooter

    $6.2M

    1yr

    1
  • John Collins
    John Collins
    PF, 6' 9", 1.14 LEBRON
    Versatile Big

    $23.5M

    4yrs

    1
  • Tyrese Martin
    Tyrese Martin
    SG, 6' 6"

    $1.0M

    2yrs

    1

-2  Wins

-66.38  MPG

-0.48  Off.

-0.52  Def.

Hi All,

A fairly simple trade today, looking to solve the Jae Crowder conundrum and finally move Collins out of Atlanta. Let me break down why each team does this and how they end up:

Hawks: This is a clear win for the Hawks, they make a move for 3 Suns roleplayers, strengthening their 3 point shooting in the process. Collins isn't a perfect fit on this team anymore, he and Capela are most effective in screen and role actions and for the Hawks he's largely been relegated to spotting up and closing out this year. Instead the Hawks bring in Crowder to fill that starting PF role, A wily veteran, everyone knows what Crowder's about, he's a competent spot up shooter, has a high defensive IQ and a slightly above average 3 point shooter on good volume. The Hawks look decent by their record this year, boasting a 10-6 record having played a tough schedule but there are some clear positions in whcih they can improve this year. They rank 29th in 3PA and 28th in 3P%, this trade helps to fix that. Crowder for his career has shot double the 3's Collins has in the same minutes, same goes for Saric, both boasting career high's of 6.4 per game, Shamet when he's scaled to 36 mins per game get's all the way up to 8.1 3PA. All of this see's the Hawks sell low on Collins on the face of things but really round out the qualities of their roster. With Capela and Okongwu they maintain rim protection on the floor at all times, allowing them to keep their defensive identity for 48 minutes of the game and continue to rebound well (currently 3rd in the league). Saric provides a 5 out option in stretches where you might want to supercharge the offence, providing Trae with some of the 3 point shot making they traded away this offseason. Saric can also come in to provide secondary rim protection next to a Capela or Okongwu providing that he doesn't have a tough perimeter assignment. Shamet can provide high volume 3 point shooting in bench minutes for the Hawks aswell, he's also a low usage guard who'd compliment both Trae and Dejounte (Murray in particular in my opinion) when the other one is off the floor. They also recoup a 1st from this meaning that if one of Crowder or Saric doesn't seem to work out they can seek to fill that hole in the roster in the draft with a pick in the 20's.

All in all I see the Hawks maintaining their identity and optimising the talents of their two stars, Young and Murray with this trade. Their 3 point shooting numbers should improve in both volume and efficiency and suddenly you could see the Hawks jumping from a 0.3+ net rating to closer to that 2.5+-3.5+ range. I think it'd be good enough ot maintain their strong start to the season and have them vie for home court advantage in the East.

Suns: This is a trade that gives the Suns a higher ceiling in my opinion and increases their chances at a championship. They sacrafice Crowder (not playing this year), Saric (returning from injury) and Shamet (currently playing 16 mins per game despite their guard injuries) for a potential star in Collins who at this moment in time is at his lowest value in his career. I see Collins being utilised as a 30 minute per game guy, starting at the 4 for most games in a lineup of Paul, Booker, Bridges, Collins and Ayton. That lineup see's their rim protection fortified with the addition of Collins and would probably see their rebounding increase. That being said much of the reason Collins' value is nullified in Atlanta is the presence of two starting level centres. The Suns massively upgrade their backup 5 spot with the additon of Collins, they could choose to close games, going 5 out (as the Mavs did so brilliantly against them last year and would be truly devestating on offence. Paul and Collins in the PNR could be one of teh most effective duo's in the league, and playing a closing 5 of Paul, Booker, Bridges, Johnson and Collins allows Williams to seek to explout the maths more so than the Suns have in recent years having lived in the midrange with assassins like Paul and Booker handling the ball so much. The third benefit of signing Collins is the chance he plays as a 6th man. Maybe a hard sell for the Baptist but in theory he gets more post touches in 2nd string lineups, something he's requested in recent years, and is still playing 30 minytes a game. This stops the likes of Biyombo playing heavy minutes in the playoffs. The last benefit of bringing in Collins is that it opens the door for the departure of Deandre Ayton. If Collins can prove to be an effective pnr scorer the Suns could move Ayton who may still be unhappy in Phoenix and bring in a 3rd perimter star or wing, bringing in a roleplayer 5 and looking to go with Collins long term in the starting lineup. This is absolutely worth doing for the Suns, they move two expiring guys and a 1st which the franchise have admitted they don't value and get back a strong starting player and a rolepayer in Holiday who can play rotation minutes.

I see the Suns finishing 1st/2nd in the West with this roster and having a better chance at making a conference finals appearence this year due to the added talent and flexibility they get from teh Collins acquisition.


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