This post is about ranking the teams with the best chance to take home the Larry O'Brien trophy. It is NOT an outright ranking of the teams. There are teams lower on the list who might be better than a team higher on the list but they rank lower because I don't see the potential for that extra gear to go on a title run. (That's not 100% true. Teams 17-30 are a ranking of the teams because I rate all of their title shots as 0).
Bona Fide Contenders
Golden State Warriors
Milwaukee Bucks
Denver Nuggets
Boston Celtics
Los Angeles Clippers
These 5 teams are head and shoulders above the rest of the league. Golden State and Milwaukee are the two presumptive title favorites based on recent history and have lived up to that billing thus far this year. Milwaukee has impressed despite nearly every wing on their roster being injured, and Golden State picked up right where they left off last season (a loss to Phoenix notwithstanding). Denver is my favorite team after those two because they are finally healthy and Jokic is arguably the best player in the league, but we can't count out Boston. The Clippers are fifth because I have such little confidence in who will be healthy and available when it matters.
On the Brink
New Orleans Pelicans
Philadelphia 76ers
Phoenix Suns
Brooklyn Nets
These teams are here for different reasons. The Pelicans are "on the brink" of contending in that they might be ahead of schedule and might be way better than we realize. The 76ers, Suns, & Nets theoretically should be title contenders, but just don't seem to have quite enough to get to the finals. For the 76ers it seems to be related to effort, for the Suns it has to do with their stars aging and not quite being on the level of the stars for the top 5 teams, and for the Nets... there are a lot of reasons. Even if Simmons, KD, and Kyrie are all miraculously healthy and available for the playoffs this team doesn't seem to have enough will to win or enough interior defense.
The Longshots
Memphis Grizzlies
Dallas Mavericks
Both of these teams could go on a run to win the title, but I'd be shocked if it happened. Memphis and Dallas would only be winning on the back of Ja or Luka going nuclear in the playoffs and establishing themselves as the league's best player - a possibility for sure, but an unlikely one.
Will Make Noise, but Won't Win the Title
Cleveland Cavaliers
Atlanta Hawks
Portland Trail Blazers
Toronto Raptors
Teams 12-16 are quality playoff teams that could easily leapfrog the teams above them in terms of where they actually finish the season. But they rank lower on my list because I just don't see the path for the team to win a title. Atlanta is the most exciting of the bunch; now that Trae is moving off-ball they are a real threat. Portland is fast and exciting, and Dame is back. Cleveland clearly has the best title odds of the group though - when Garland returns to the lineup expect this team to really start making noise.
From this point down, this is more of a ranking of the teams. These teams are too low to even consider their chances of winning a title (they are nonexistent).
Likely Play in Teams
Minnesota Timberwolves
Chicago Bulls
Miami Heat
Utah Jazz
New York Knicks
Is there a more dissapointing team this year than Minnesota? The Lakers are, but after them Minnesota has to be the biggest flop in the league. I still have faith that Ant can right the ship, but in a deep western conference that might only be enough for the play in. Chicago, Miami, & New York are quality teams but the league is the deepest it's been in years and they don't quite have enough to move up a tier. Utah is the surprise of the league this year, but unfortunately will likely plummet down these rankings when they decide to start tearing the team down to ensure they're in the Wembanyama sweepstakes.
Fighting for the Play In
Washington Wizards
Charlotte Hornets
Sacramento Kings
San Antonio Spurs
Indiana Pacers
All of these teams could make the play in if they really go for it. All of these teams should be angling themselves to get worse and hopefully land Scoot or Wembanyama.
Tanking or too Far Away
Oklahoma City Thunder
Los Angeles Lakers
Orlando Magic
Houston Rockets
Detroit Pistons
These teams are either right where they want to be (in the thick of the Wemby sweepstakes) or hopelessly stuck in the mire (sorry LA). Los Angeles is one of the 5 worst shooting teams in NBA history. Unless something major changes, the conversation around the Lakers will soon be about whether the Pelicans could luck into Wembanyama via the Lakers pick.