First 4
San Diego State(W) vs North Carolina
Texas(W) vs Xavier
Alabama State(W) vs St Francis
American(W) vs Mount St Mary's
South(Atlanta)
Round of 64
#1 Auburn(W) vs #16 Alabama State
There isn’t any #1 vs #16 game that could get super chaotic this year in my opinion. Auburn should handle this game easily.
#2 Michigan State(W) vs #15 Bryant
This one should be an easy win for Michigan State. Bryant has been playing from behind down the stretch and narrowly winning games, so they shouldn’t be that much trouble for the Spartans.
#3 Iowa State vs #14 Lipscomb(W)
My first upset pick. I feel like if Lipscomb can come out and make tough shots, then they stand a good chance at beating Iowa State, who may not have the offensive firepower necessary to keep up, and losing Keshon Gilbert is a big blow for them.
#4 Texas A & M vs #13 Yale(W)
Texas A & M has not inspired confidence down the stretch at all outside of a fluke win over Auburn that feels more like a trap game. Yale seems to be coming in hot and can easily stun a reeling Aggies team.
#5 Michigan vs #12 UC San Diego(W)
Michigan, despite winning the Big 10 tournament, does seem to be reeling and has gotten incredibly lucky. UC San Diego is coming in red hot, looks incredibly well balanced, and should be expected to catch a Michigan team that seems to feel like the prototype upset team.
#6 Ole Miss(W) vs #11 San Diego State
I don’t think San Diego State has any of the tools needed to upset Ole Miss at all. I feel confident in picking the Rebels here.
#7 Marquette vs #10 New Mexico(W)
I feel like overall, New Mexico is the better shooting team, and history doesn’t favor Shaka Smart well in March.
#8 Louisville(W) vs #9 Creighton
I feel like overall, this game is going to come down to who is better defensively. And that would be Louisville.
Round of 32
#1 Auburn(W) vs #8 Louisville
Louisville could pull off the upset here, but overall, if Auburn can play up to potential, then they win this game. Louisville’s 3 point shooting also hurts them here.
#2 Michigan State(W) vs #10 New Mexico
Here, I just think Michigan State is the better all around team. New Mexico could pull off the upset if Michigan State plays down to competition like they did in the Big 10 tournament, however.
#6 Ole Miss vs #14 Lipscomb(W)
Here, the Bison strike again, using their deadly shooting to take care of a Rebels team that simply doesn’t have the shooters necessary to outshoot them.
#12 UC San Diego(W) vs #13 Yale
In a rare battle of Cinderellas, I am going to go with who I feel is the better Cinderella here: UC San Diego.
Sweet 16
#1 Auburn(W) vs #12 UC San Diego
UC San Diego could easily upset Auburn, but overall, I feel like Auburn is the better team and should take care of them.
#2 Michigan State(W) vs #14 Lipscomb
Here, the Bisons Cinderella run ends, as they fall to simply a much better Michigan State team.
Elite 8
#1 Auburn(W) vs #2 Michigan State
This could easily be a game that could go either way. However, I feel like Michigan State does play down to competition more, and Auburn talent wise is simply the better team.
East(Newark)
Round of 64
#1 Duke(W) vs #16 American
Nothing to see here. Just another typical #1 vs #16 game.
#2 Alabama(W) vs #15 Robert Morris
Alabama is simply the much, much better team. And that gets proven here.
#3 Wisconsin(W) vs #14 Montana
This could be a potential upset, given how Wisconsin’s barely scraped by teams such as Minnesota, Penn State, and Northwestern, but overall, I don’t think Montana has the defense necessary enough to contain Wisconsin.
#4 Arizona(W) vs #13 Akron
Arizona seems to be the much better team here, and that should be on full display here.
#5 Oregon vs #12 Liberty(W)
Overall, Oregon’s analytics scream a potential upset, and they have also played down to competition a lot. Liberty gets the upset here.
#6 BYU vs #11 VCU(W)
VCU seems like the most likely Cinderella this year, and here, they take advantage of BYU’s porous defense and get the upset here.
#7 St Mary's(W) vs #10 Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt is skidding, and St Mary’s seems like the better team overall right now. Hence, they get the win.
#8 Mississippi State(W) vs #9 Baylor
Overall, Mississippi State has been the better overall team this year, and Baylor hasn’t inspired confidence at all.
Round of 32
#1 Duke(W) vs #8 Mississippi State
Duke’s simply a dominant force right now, and that should continue over Mississippi State.
#2 Alabama(W) vs #7 St Mary's
While St Mary’s is much better defensively, Alabama overall is simply a machine offensively, and they have much more firepower than the Gaels do.
#3 Wisconsin vs #11 VCU(W)
Here, another upset. Wisconsin has played down to competition a ton this year, and VCU is simply red-hot right now. As a result, VCU gets the upset over Wisconsin.
#4 Arizona(W) vs #12 Liberty
Here, Liberty’s Cinderella dreams fall to a much better Arizona team.
Sweet 16
#1 Duke(W) vs #4 Arizona
This is the true regional final here. However, Duke is simply the much better team, and they are clicking and on a roll, and Arizona doesn’t stand much of a chance.
#2 Alabama vs #11 VCU(W)
Here, defense wins. VCU will likely be extremely red-hot, and they get an upset win on their way to a Cinderella Elite 8 run.
Elite 8
#1 Duke(W) vs #11 VCU
Here, the Rams’ Cinderella run strikes midnight to the best team in the country. Duke punches their ticket to the Final 4.
West(San Francisco)
Round of 64
#1 Florida(W) vs #16 Norfolk State
Florida might be the hottest team in the country, so Norfolk State should be a cakewalk for them.
#2 St John's(W) vs #15 Omaha
Omaha does have the shooters to potentially give St John’s trouble, but St John’s has the stingy defense and I doubt Rick Pitino bows out this early.
#3 Texas Tech(W) vs #14 UNC Wilmington
Texas Tech is simply the much better team here.
#4 Maryland(W) vs #13 Grand Canyon
This could be a potential upset, but overall, I feel like Maryland’s the better team, and they have more efficient shooting and better defense, so they get the nod here.
#5 Memphis vs #12 Colorado State(W)
Upset here. Colorado State seems to be getting hot at the right time, and Memphis has seemed shaky at times this year. As a result, Colorado State gets the upset here.
#6 Missouri vs #11 Drake(W)
Missouri has not looked good at all recently, and Drake’s red hot and looking good. I feel like Drake gets the upset here.
#7 Kansas(W) vs #10 Arkansas
Kansas I feel just has more veterans here, and should make easy work of a young, inexperienced Arkansas team.
#8 UConn(W) vs #9 Oklahoma
UConn has the much better offense and better team overall. Oklahoma might challenge them offensively, but overall, UConn’s ambitions are too big for them to go out Round 1.
Round of 32
#1 Florida(W) vs #8 UConn
Florida is the much more balanced and better team and simply clicking at the right time. Can’t say the same about UConn.
#2 St John's(W) vs #7 Kansas
The tiebreaker here is simply how the teams have been playing recently. St John’s has been on a roll, while Kansas has faltered down the stretch. Give me St John’s.
#3 Texas Tech(W) vs #11 Drake
Texas Tech is simply too balanced right now. And Drake isn’t shooting the 3s well, which Texas Tech excels at. Red Raiders win.
#4 Maryland vs #12 Colorado State(W)
Colorado State simply seems to be getting hot at the right time. And here, they catch an off-guard Terrapins team and stake their Cinderella claim with a Sweet 16 run.
Sweet 16
#1 Florida(W) vs #12 Colorado State
The clock strikes midnight for Colorado State here, as Florida is simply too balanced, too red hot, and clicking at the right time to go down this early.
#2 St John's vs #3 Texas Tech(W)
Here, The Johnnies’ abysmal 3 pt shooting catches up with them, as Texas Tech will simply outshoot them from beyond the arc here, and St John’s will be unable to keep up.
Elite 8
#1 Florida(W) vs #3 Texas Tech
Florida is simply a machine. Texas Tech will make it a battle, but more likely than not, the Gators will prove to be the much better team, and advance to the Final 4.
Midwest(Indianapolis)
Round of 64
#1 Houston(W) vs #16 SIU Edwardsville
Another #1 vs #16 game. Nothing to see here.
#2 Tennessee(W) vs #15 Wofford
Tennessee is just simply the much better team here.
#3 Kentucky(W) vs #14 Troy
Kentucky is simply the much better team here.
#4 Purdue vs #13 High Point(W)
High Point is clicking at the right time, while Purdue is reeling, and this year seems like another expected Matt Painter choke, and it will come at the hands of the Panthers’ dazzling offense.
#5 Clemson(W) vs #12 McNeese
Here, this matchup is simply going to come down to who has the better defense. And that’s Clemson.
#6 Illinois(W) vs #11 Texas
Illinois is the much better team here. Texas has rattled off some wins to save it’s season, but they have a coach on his way out and Illinois has bigger expectations.
#7 UCLA(W) vs #10 Utah State
This feels like a game that truly go either way, but I will go with UCLA because I feel like they have looked more impressive lately.
#8 Gonzaga(W) vs #9 Georgia
Gonzaga is the better team, is clicking at the right time, and is coming into this matchup as simply the hotter team.
Round of 32
#1 Houston(W) vs #8 Gonzaga
This could very well be the de facto Regional Final. Right now, I am going to go with Houston simply because they have looked more dominant.
#2 Tennessee(W) vs #7 UCLA
Tennessee here is the better team. That’s all that there is to it.
#3 Kentucky vs #6 Illinois(W)
Kentucky has looked not as impressive recently, whereas Illinois seems to be clicking at the right time. Illinois gets the upset here.
#5 Clemson(W) vs #13 High Point
This will come down to the better defensive team, which is Clemson.
Sweet 16
#1 Houston(W) vs #5 Clemson
Clemson’s run ends here, Houston is simply a dominant force and that will be proven here.
#2 Tennessee(W) vs #6 Illinois
The tiebreaker here is better shooting. Tennessee has that. As a result, they advance to the Elite 8.
Elite 8
#1 Houston(W) vs #2 Tennessee
Houston has looked more dominant, and overall, they are simply the better team. And they have the much better offense. Due to those factors, the Cougars are the ones who get their Final 4 tickets punched.
Final 4
Auburn vs Florida(W)
Florida is clicking at the right time and balanced. Auburn seems to be coasting off of luck. As a result, Florida wins this Final 4 matchup.
Duke(W) vs Houston
Duke, in my opinion, has the better overall roster. That is simply what this game is going to come down to. Who has the better team. And Duke has that.
National Championship
Duke(W) vs Florida
Duke has the better overall roster here. And that is what gives them the edge over Florida. Duke wins this tournament, adding another title to their storied program, and Cooper Flagg wins MOP.
