Under the new rules, the bottom 3 teams will have lower odds (5.4% chance) at the top pick than teams 4-10 (8.1% chance). Teams 11-14 will have equal odds to the bottom 3 teams (5.4% chance). And the losers of the 7/8 play-in game will also have a chance at the #1 pick (2.7% chance). A team cannot pick #1 in back-to-back years. No team can select in the Top 5 three years in a row. A bottom three team can fall no lower than pick #12. Picks #31-46 of the second round will be in reverse order of the lottery order.
Implications of these new rules include:
A 7-seed who loses their first play-in game, like Phoenix this year, had better odds at picking #1 than Dallas did when they moved up to get Cooper Flagg last offseason.
Since no team can select in the Top 5 three years in a row, and this applies even if the pick was traded, Memphis cannot get a Top 5 pick from Utah's pick next year that they received in the JJJ trade.
Rather than just picks 1-4, every pick from 1 to 16 will now be determined by the lottery. The worst 3 teams in the league will have a 47% chance at receiving pick 10, 11, or 12. Under the previous system, the lowest the team with the worst record would pick would be #5.
Let me know if I missed anything. Do you think this change will help or hurt the NBA as a whole?