Eastern Conference
Cleveland Cavaliers (57-25)
I'm not thinking that overall they will be the strongest playoff team, but the Cavaliers drew a bad matchup against the Knicks last season but remained patient, avoided the urge to blow it up or make a major change and actually fixed their weakness on the wing. Regular Season basketball is different than playoff basketball and I think the defense of Allen - Mobley - Strus down low with Garland and Mitchell as scorers along with an improved bench carries them through enough regular season matches to claim the top seed.
Boston Celtics (54-28)
I'd put them higher but I fully expect them to load manage heavily during the regular season, Porzingas especially. They still have depth (except at PG) and no one develops players better (many equal no one better) I just don't see those players on their bench at the moment though and while they added Porzingas they also added picks so I expect them to rebuild the bench over the next few seasons.
Milwaukee Bucks (53-29) - Not much depth here either, this team is is still Giannis - Holliday - Middleton if any of the 3 miss significant time the Bucks are the inverse of the Celtics and Heat , they develop well no one more or less. Still if they are relatively healthy they have the best 1-8 squad with Portis, Lopez and company, but would it really kill them to develop some young guys to load manage and preserve depth?
New York Knicks (46-36) - There is no one on the Knicks I would put on my All-NBA ballot; yet surprisingly this is one of the deepest NBA teams around. They basically have 2 guys at every position except PF that I could see as a starter on a different playoff team.
Philadelphia 76ers (45-37)
No Harden? Hmmm....a Center (even a great one) without a PG is like Boston Bar on St. Patty's Day without green beer. I mean sure your still a great bar but not this day or in this case not this season. 76ers need to retool and don't tell me Melton if he has more than 5 assists in a game one of them was supposed to be a shot and it was just a wild off-target shot that Embiid put down. I just predict Morley, as always overplays his hand and doesn't get the right pieces back because he's too busy trying to prove he's the smartest in the room.
Indiana Pacers (43-39) - Yeah I'm buying a Halliburton and I think they get an Ayton trade done. That plus Bruce Brown and Mauthrin this team sort of takes off. Ayton regular season is walking double-double more so when paired with a top distributor like Halliburton. Pairing that with solid defense all around them from Jalen Smith and company and it's just a nasty trip to Indiana for most teams that lack that size. That should pile up some wins when they dominate the glass.
Miami Heat (41-41) - The Heat have more holes than just Damian Lillard can fill. They finished just above .500 and 8th last season in the east and its not like it was an injury plagued year. Even if they deal for Lillard (Which I'm sure they will) who exactly is the starting PG here? Is it me? I don't know. Kyle Lowry is done, even if he wasn't about to be cap filler he'd likely have been bought out. IF you play fantasy basketball take a flyer on Jamaree Bouyea he was just 2nd team All-G League and he's the only other active PG on the roster. He has 5 career games your buddies will be telling you you were brilliant trust me. I just don't think this is going to be an easy road. Still it's Lillard, its Jimmy Buckets, its Bam I think they'll need at least another season after the Lillard trade to make this happen.
Brooklyn Nets(40-42) - Love me some front court here hate me some backcourt. Bridges - Johnson - and Claxton oh my! Don't get me wrong the Nets are doing the right thing this time (at least I hope so) building patiently rather than running around like a junky looking for a fix trying to fill the obvious holes on this roster. The backcourt is highly ho-hum.
Toronto Raptors (39-43)
Siakam - Anouby - Barnes , I hate to say they are going to learn something but I think losing VanVleet is actually a blessing in disguise for them. The Raptors really suffered from inefficiency the past couple of seasons , too many guys who want to shoot the ball not enough who want to pass the ball. Yeah I love 3 point shooting too but someone has to bury a 10 foot jumper, create a fast break chance or lay it in. Still its enough depth I'm good.
Atlanta Hawks (38-44)
Sometimes the wheels come off and you get everyone in the office fired. That's the feeling I get here. I still don't like the Young - Murray pairing I think it makes both players worse not better and I don't see the elite scoring big man that would support basically a double point guard lineup.
Orlando Magic(36-46)
I think the Magic don't take as big a step forward as they like this season. Primary reason last year they started 5-20 not necessarily due to youth but because vitually every PG was injured at the start of the year. This team is one Wendell Carter Jr. injury away from a complete disaster and I'm not predicting that but the backup center and PF options unless Johnny Isaac has been to the healing waters of lourdes just don't work. First stretch without Carter or Banchero for 4-5 games is a losing streak. I retract the statement if the Magic trade one of their 85 guards for big depth. With a new GM (Parker) taking over last week he sorta has his hands tied but a fix needs to be made.
Charlotte Hornets(33-49)
I'm buying the Hornets for a small improvement but this team has a long way to go. There is an ownership change coming and that should help but I feel like there are too many people who need someone else to create their shot and not enough shot creators plus some sloppy defense.
Chicago Bulls (33-49) - This is a dumpster fire waiting to happen. The most dangerous lies are the ones we tell ourselves. Lavine and DeRozan don't get along but they are a great wing combo and complimentary. Vuc is slowing down and when an offensive center starts to slow down it gets really ugly really fast. I love Jevon Carter as a backup PG total energy guy lights out shoorter and passer , I dont like him so much as an every day guy and the "ballad" of Colby White scares me to hear. To make matter worse the PF spot is still an absolute mess they didn't try to address it and its putting too much stress on the wings having weak interior defense.
Detroit Pistons (26-56)
The Pistons have done the right thing , Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey and even Ausaur Thompson have been player available; I also happen to think they don't work well together. I don't mean personality I mean skill set wise its a bit of redundancy and I think that causes some problems. I'm also not a buyer on that weird double center look they are running. They seriously need to find a stretch option. Lots of turnovers lots of bad spacing , it's another long winter in Detroit.
Washington Wizards(21-61)
Right where they want to be. I expect they'll flip Tyrus Jones at the trade deadline possibly even Gafford and Kuzma as well for picks to needy teams. I mean if you lose your starting center and your playoff team Gafford is the easiest buy ever. Kuzma strikes me as more of a buy if you think you are missing someone to get you over the top in the playoffs and Jones kinda could be both , PG needy team or someone looking to lead a second unit.
Western Conference
Denver Nuggets (56-26)
They still have the League MVP and another 4 really great players. That's tough to stop on any night. Too many good options too much all around talent for the Nuggets not to be the top seed or near the top seed. Safest bet of the bunch.
Memphis Grizzlies (55-27)
Memphis is a really dangerous team, especially now that they've added Marcus Smart. Add to that another year of development of Aldama and Tillman, plus they still have Jackson Jr and Bane and this is a really nasty team everytime you play them. No matter who the opponent is one of their big 3 is better than one of your big 3 and quite frankly on some nights all 3 of them. That's before you get to Steven Adams if they ever find an athletic low wing let me know I'll change my title prediction.
Los Angeles Lakers (50-32)
I love what the Lakers have done this offseason. Rather than try to add a "big 3rd" to Anthony Davis and LeBron James they've built depth and complimentary pieces around them. They still have some matchup problems in a few areas and could use a younger higher energy guy but I think this team is ready to compete.
Sacramento Kings (46-36)
Still the biggest surprise of 2023 the Kings have something good going with Sabonis and Fox. More than that Keegan Murray should be even better, Huerter is underrated, Harrison Barnes is back and Veznekov , Euroleague MVP, gets added as a stretch 4 off the bench. They could still use another true blue wing here but you play the hand dealt to you and the Kings have done that well.
Golden State Warriors (45-37)
They still have Steph Curry - Klay Thompson - Draymond Green. However with the new salary cap rules the Warriors need to downgrade their depth and that'll be ongoing. On nights their shooting is working they'll win on nights it isn't they'll lose.
Phoenix Suns (45-37)
Yeah this will be a big surprise for many and a big step back well short of expectations. It's a dreadful bench and quite frankly its not a very good defensive team. Is anyone afraid of Drew Eubanks or Chimeze Metu in the paint? This team to me is far more "playoff dangerous" than regular season. I imagine they expend just enough effort to avoid the play-in.
New Orleans Pelicans (45-37)
I'm buying the Zion is lean and mean story. Not permanently just enoguh for this year. I like McCollum - Ingram - Williamson but I think they still need to find a guard who is a pass first type but Try Murphy the III and Hawkins add enough perimeter shooting here I like the Pelicans this season, I like them a little more if it's not McCollum running the offense everytime.
Minnesota Timberwolves (40-42)
Yeah they still have Anthony Edwards, Towns is likely more healthy, Jaden, Naz Reid and Gobert. I don't think this team is consistent enough but I also know they lack the tools to rebuild it properly. Maybe they get one more year out of the Gobert/Towns pairing and then redesign.
Houston Rockets (40-42) - This is mostly about Jabari Smith Jr. perhaps no player improved in the 2nd half o the season as much as Smith Jr and I kinda always knew he was going to be a longer term development. It's also not so much about Senguin who I'm not sold on because he defends terribly, but between Landale and veteran Jeff Green with Dillon Brooks on the wing I like the lower D. VanVleet adds some leadership as well and the Rockets cling to a playin spot.
Los Angeles Clippers (39-43) - The Clippers are super deep but not deep enough. If Harden lands here I'd revise upwards but this show is going to come to an end in the next two years and they do need to start getting worried about that 2nd tax apron (repeat violators get hammered). I smell a mini fire sale at some point if the team doesn't get it.
San Antonio Spurs (37-45) - Yeah I buy Wemby as well, I buy Popovich , I even like Vassell I just don't see the experience and depth elsewhere to get it done.
Dallas Mavericks(36-46)
I think Dallas is "mostly" headed in the right direction but I gotta be honest with you two words Kyrie Irving. He's always a time bomb waiting to blow up and maybe he's on his best behavior this year maybe he isn't. I really like what Dallas is doing with their change on the interior but they are still a wing short and a dominating center short.
Oklahoma City Thunder (34-48) - This would be a step back, but the team is too soft in the middle. I wasn't a buyer in Holmgren when he was drafted and even if you are he's a rookie big in a conference that's unforgiving of that distinction.
Utah Jazz (33-49)
Bitter pill for the Jazz but I think the clock has struck 12:01 for Cinderella. They did great with the Gobert and Mitchell trades, the deal for Lauri I even like the deal for Collins. I think last year teams underestimated them though until midway through the season. I even liked Taylor Hendricks as a potential darkhorse 2nd place ROY candidate - I'm still trying to see how 3 natural PFs can work as your best players. I like the players individually I just don't see them working well together.
Portland Trailblazers (24-58)
This is gonna get really ugly really fast as the Trailblazers go full youth movement, on the plus side maybe they can give Chicago the finger as the go by them in the standings and go "you will never cash our pick while we are alive".
Playoff Picture
Playin 1st Games
Miami Heat Def Brooklyn Nets and Advance Atlanta Hawks def and eliminate Toronto Raptors New Orleans Pelicans def Minnesota Timberwolves and advance LA Clippers def and eliminate Houston Rockets
Playin 2nd Round
Atlanta Hawks defeat Brooklyn Nets Minnesota Timberwolves def LA Clippers
Round 1
Eastern Conference
(1) Cleveland Cavaliers down the (8) Atlanta Hawks (4-1) (2) Boston Celtics defeat (7)Miami Heat (4-3) (3) Milwaukee Bucks defeat (6) Indiana Pacers (4-2) (5) Philadelphia 76ers defeat (4) NY Knicks (4-2)
Western Conference
(1) Denver Nuggets defeat (8) Minnesota Timberwolves (4-0) (2) Memphis Grizzlies defeat (7) New Orleans Pelicans (4-1) (6) Phoenix Suns defeat (3) LA Lakers (4-3) (5) Golden State Warriors defeat (4) Sacramento Kings (4-3)
Round 2
Eastern (1) Cleveland Cavaliers defeat Philadelphia 76ers (4-2) (2) Boston Celtics defeat Milwaukee Bucks (4-1) Western (1) Denver Nuggets defeat (5) Golden State Warriors (4-2) (2) Memphis Grizzlies defeat (6) Phoenix Suns (4-0)
Conference Finals Boston Celtics defeat Cleveland Cavaliers (4-1) Memphis Grizzlies defeat Denver Nuggets (4-3)
NBA Finals Memphis Grizzlies defeat Boston Celtics (4-2) Marcus Smart credited with kudos for limiting Tatum but MVP award goes to Ja Morant who celebrates by idiotically making pistol symbols at the crowd.