My plan was to release a first round mock draft a few days before the draft, so I started to type the descriptions for each pick. However as I got to around mid to late lottery I started to struggle, there’s just no clear prospect who should be off the board to me. A lot of questions on different prospects started to swarm my brain, and I just could not continue my mock draft.
Therefore, I decided to swiftly change my plan, and instead raise my concerns out on all possible first round picks, hopefully to have discussions with yall on different prospects and help me continue my mock draft. (I’ve sorted everyone into different categories, no particular pattern on doing so, hopefully it won’t be too messy for yall lol)
Remarks: None of these prospects I detaily scouted (I do not have the time), so I cannot be sure on basically everything, just tell me your thoughts on the prospects and it’ll be much appreciated
Top talents:
Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper: The far best talents in this draft class, you build the team around them, no doubts needed
Khaman Maluach: Sensational defensive force who showed upside offensively, these big man are incredibly valuable in modern basketball
Ace Bailey, Tre Johnson: Both project to be great scorers, but raise concerns defensively, more because of their awareness, but they are rookies and this commonly happens, shouldn’t be a huge concern in draft process. Bit concerned for Bailey falling out top 5 considering that he rejected every private workout
Egor Demin: Natural playmaker at 6'9 who has decent shooting (splits don't look great but I trust em Combine clips), could handle the ball, effective offball as well, fits in teams easily
Overhyped prospects:
VJ Edgecombe: Could not see much ceiling, great athleticism doesn’t mean much. A decent shooter who attack the rim well and plays good defense. He will be a great role player to have thats for sure, not top 5...
Kon Knueppel: Great role player, good shooting, got the footwork, high IQ, great feel for the game, nothing that takes him beyond a great role player tho, bro can only shoot spot ups
Noa Essengue: Most overhyped one to me. I did the same to Salaun last year, and I’ve learnt my lesson. What I’ve seen is dude with great frame and could defend multiple positions. That doesn’t imply that he’s doing that at an elite level. Only great offensive skillset is pushing the quick break, others are super mid, and yet people are saying he has a tremendous ceiling. Just like VJ, having great physical tools (and a great frame) doesn’t imply ceiling
Concerning guards:
Kasparas Jakucionis: Great frame, ball dominant PG, which is fine if you could do it at a high level, not for Kasparas. He has playmaking, but that AST/TO ratio is just concerning. Basically could not play offball at all, so whoever drafts him has to give him the keys on offense. That is a tough ask for most NBA teams
Ben Saraf: Scoring upside is there. But what else? Worse than Kasparas, he could not play floor general. Never shown decent ability to shoot too, both on ball or off ball. Fitting a ball dominant non-PG into a lineup would be super tough
Jeremiah Fears, Nolan Traore: Both are quite similar to me, explosive PGs who always drive to the bucket. Decent playmaking ability, but again, what else? Shooting is below average, ball dominant and cannot play offball. Fears turn the ball over a lot as well. A lot of questions could be raised for both of them, and same issue, very tough to fit them into NBA teams. One more thing that I’ll raise, Traore really is not far off Fears.
Jase Richardson, Mark Sears: Issue here is very obvious. Undersized. Sears’ concern isn’t that big, great offensive player, could really do it all as a PG, just undersized, not sure if this is real but he’s below 6 foot barefoot according to some reports. Troubles for Jase. 6 feet and cannot play PG, that’s all I have to say. I could see him dropping to the 2nd round tbh
Concerning bigs:
Collin Murray-Boyles: Offensive concerns. Elite defender already, but barely can do anything on offense. Undersized to be a post threat, cannot shoot, average playmaking. At least Draymond Green can play as a ball handler and sometimes shoot (comparison here is an undersized big, CMB can hardly be Draymond)
Derik Queen: Defensive concerns. A month ago I bought into the Sabonis comparisons, now I just can't. His post-up games are not even that good tbh, Passing is above average, not Sabonis. It's all about offense for Queen, defense has never been good, and my stance on his offense is it’s overrated and will hardly translate to the league. I believe how he muscles his way into the paint and using his body to fight for rebounds will be way harder
Danny Wolf: Defensive concerns, also too slow and chunky. I don't have a concern about his offensive game tho, crazy how he can play like a SF/PF at 7 foot, super skilled
Role players for now (sorted by position):
(Role players are on lower usage rate so weaknesses won’t be too big of a problem imo)
Walter Clayton JR: This guy has real shooting upside, it is quite rare to find great movement shooters. Could really be a top 5 shooter in the league. I did say the same for Reed Sheppard last year tho…
Tyrese Proctor, Kam Jones: Love these 2 PG/SG. Both are part time PG, full time offball guard. Proctor the better shooter, had an impressive NCAA tournament. Last year Kam Jones played with Kolek, more offball resulted in better shooting splits. This year without Kolek he upped his assist number by over double. Very positive signs on capable on ball and offball
Nique Clifford: Probably one of the more underrated guys in this draft class. He’s more than a wing to me. He showed that he can really score the ball, kinda classifying as a 3-level scorer. He is 23 but depending on how much teams trust his development, he could be a huge steal
Carter Bryant, Cedric Coward: High level role player. Great defender, high volume shooter. Exactly what NBA teams need for their wing position
Drake Powell, Will Riley: Slightly worse than Bryant and Coward, but also very decent role players
Adou Thiero, Noah Penda: Could not shoot well but elite defenders, see if late first teams need more hustle and energy to their team. Its easier to work on someone's offensive game than defensive
Liam McNeeley, Bogoldub Markovic: Both have the shooting but defending is weak. McNeeley the better shooter but Markovic not far worse at a 6’11 frame. That frame should cover up the fact that he’s a below average defender. Expect Markovic to go before McNeeley for me
Rasheer Fleming, Asa Newell: PFs who could service teams well. Fleming is a perfect role playing PF, good defender and shooter. Newell could play PF/C, versatile defender and good rebounder
Thomas Sorber, Joan Beringer: The Mitchell Robinsons, great rim protector, could be useful in many teams
Maxime Raynaud, Ryan Kalkbrenner: The Edeys and Clingans. Dominant college bigs who should be able to find a role in the NBA. Raynaud should be off the board earlier than Kalkbrenner given that he can shoot, shooting bigs are just that valuable
After typing my thoughts on everyone here’s the conclusion that I’ve drawn:
Starting from Washington at 6 I just do not know anymore. My top 5 picks are DAL: Cooper Flagg, SAS: Dylan Harper, PHI: Khaman Maluach, CHA: Ace Bailey, UTA: Tre Johnson
It is really on whether teams swing for upside or play it safe and draft a good role player. If you go for upside, you really need to have the room for him to grow, and allow more time with the ball to the rookie. If you go for the safe pick, then do not expect that your guy could exceed being a role player lol
A game of risk management, and I found catching the balance between risk and safety super tough, definitely the toughest among recent drafts (maybe it's just me getting more experienced watching prospects)
I still expect lottery teams all to take the risk, a lot of them don’t have a clear 1st option/star on their team. Teams like DC, Brooklyn, Spurs with their 2nd pick, maybe Pels too with Zion’s future unclear
Then comes the issue on how to fit them into their current squad… my brain hurts so bad
Therefore please leave your thoughts and comments down below, genuinely very very intrigued. If you like the effort please leave a ❤️ as well. Thank you all