The Future of the NBA: Exploring the Potential for Expansion

  The NBA has been dancing with the potential of an expansion for a few years now; the media and, as a fanbase, we have speculated when this may come and where they might be, but it really feels like we are reaching the boiling point. A lot of changes have happened in recent times under Adam Silver's reign as commissioner, but **it’s been over 20 years now** since the Charlotte Bobcats were added back in 2004, and since then, the NBA has seen incredible growth as a sport internationally. As someone who is from outside the USA, I can vouch for that.     

The NBA was at one point almost only made up of American prospects; the league was about 5% international players during the 90s. Today we see a lot of the world’s best players come from outside the US, with about 30% of the league being international players. Now this speaks tonnes on the international expansion of the NBA and its growth abroad. But it’s not that I want to focus on when talking about expansion. It’s the large quantity of NBA-level players we see around the world, whether that be in the EuroLeague, G League, elsewhere internationally, or coming in through college. And because the NBA hasn’t expanded in years, that quality isn’t always in the league and is heavily concentrated in our teams. And the easiest way to face that is through league expansion.

 

Why Now?

Well, the same points as earlier: we have an overabundance of talent around the world, and if you're the NBA, you want to be the hub of this talent so you can only find this talent in your league. From a selfish point of view and one trying to gain the most revenue as possible, the NBA should be willing to go out and bring this talent in. Obviously, everyone wants to play in the league, but there just aren't enough spots. G League affiliates aren’t properly used yet; I have an article on that if you're interested in my opinion on that, so it isn’t a reasonable path right now for older players to find an NBA contract. The NBA also has a viewership problem; maybe adding more talent through an expansion can help this problem.

 

Going back to the international expansion of the league, there is much more demand for basketball; increasing the number of teams can increase the number of games over a season, so there is now more quantity for the demand, which you can argue may help fix this issue as well. Also, the league is about to go into a new TV deal with various providers around the world being able to show NBA games, increasing these games is more enticing to these platforms to pay extra money for the rights and increase revenue for the league, its teams, staff, and players. Adam Silver has previously stated himself that the NBA will be talking expansion during meetings at some point this year, but it won't be coming until these deals are completed.

 

Another reason is I view many cities as viable options across the USA and elsewhere, where there is a high demand for NBA basketball. This means there is high demand for fresh teams, and local support won't be too hard to find; many cities have been advertising themselves to the league as potential spots for expansion.

 

Now what has prevented this in previous years?

    Previously it has been the $2.5 billion entry fee to the league; I think this isn’t the actual number, but it's closer to $5 billion, or at least that's what the league is trying to sell it at.     

This price is being advertised due to the sales of current NBA teams. The Boston Celtics first bid deadline was today, and the sale of the Celtics has been very important for the NBA; they are trying to use it to show the value of an NBA franchise and get high prices for the entry fee to give to the teams. Currently the sale is rumoured at around $8 billion.

Where?

One of the most interesting topics for the potential expansion has been where there are many cities that deserve to have NBA teams, but you can only add so many. Right now, we expect that 2 teams will be added during the next expansion, although I wouldn’t be surprised if we get more in quick succession or more during that same expansion. Here is my shortlist of cities with the potential of having NBA teams and why:

Seattle:

The obvious pick, home of the Sonics until they moved during the 2008 offseason, is a big city that has been wanting the return of their team to the NBA for years. Recently OKC seems willing to give back the history of the Sonics if they are added in an expansion. I would be surprised if this team isn’t added during the next expansion.

 

Las Vegas:

The NBA has been going to Las Vegas for the Summer League for a while now, as well as heading there for the in-season tournament for the last 2 years. Las Vegas has recently become home to various Major sports league teams, based off the success of these franchises, we could see Las Vegas become home to an NBA team.

 

Mexico City:

Mexico has seen basketball become one of the fastest-growing sports in the country. Mexico City has become home to the Capitanes in the G League and has been one of the most successful G League teams out there. So maybe the NBA has been testing the city to eventually get its own team one day.

 

Louisville:

Has the facilities and basketball interest to have its own team; the question is where the money is coming from. The city has been promoting itself for the NBA for a while; Kentucky is home to one of the biggest college basketball teams in the country, and Louisville has a big enough market. So, there's enough intrigue in the area for an NBA team.

 

Vancouver:

Another city abroad, another city with an old NBA team, they lost the Grizzlies a while back after having little success and a poor economic state in Canada, although Canada has its own troubles right now, which I'm not going to get into. I think Vancouver wouldn’t have the same problems nowadays.

 

Kansas City:

Kansas City is no stranger to success; the Chiefs have obviously been extremely successful recently. They have the fan base, as the Midwest really needs more teams to cheer for. They have a successful college team, and they will have the market for success. I just think they fall by the wayside compared to others.

 

Europe?

Adam Silver was questioned by Shaq on a podcast about the possibility of the NBA expanding over in Europe, outside the continent of North America; the response was interesting and something I would be more excited about, which is a sister league in Europe. Obviously, this would take time to set up and a lot of money, but it fits the international expansion of the league, and I think it would hugely benefit the league. Again, you're keeping the talent within your reach, and the revenue from the NBA can be used to expand this. Obciously it would be incredibly difficult to have European and American teams play against each other within a season without changing the schedule structure too much and reducing the game count drastically. But I really like the idea of a separate European league away from the NBA that has similar rules and structure.

How does a league expansion work?

 

Case Study: Charlotte Bobcats

Back in 2002, the Charlotte Hornets moved from their native city to New Orleans; this was due to various disagreements between the city and the owner, to no fault of the fans. Charlotte very much deserved a basketball team, so the NBA announced that same year that the expansion team, the Charlotte Bobcats, will start play in the 2004/05 season. The NBA charged a fee of $300 million to the purchasers, with majority ownership being bought by Robert L. Johnson, who was the founder of BET.

Speed up to 2004, the expansion draft came; each team could protect up to 8 players on their team. Nowadays, you would be able to get a lot of value from the expansion draft, including many potential players to build your franchise around. The Hornets only selected a couple of notable players. The most notable is Gerald Wallace, who became the team's first all-star. This shows that even during a period with much lower average quality compared to the modern day, you can hit big. One of the best things about the expansion draft is it gives players stuck in bad situations the chance to be free, get game time, prove themselves to the league, and get a big payday, as well as creating marketing opportunities for the league and its teams. The other notable pick, Zaza Pachulia, was traded on draft day for a 2nd round pick. The Bobcats were offered seconds and even firsts to take players off the hands of other teams in this draft, for example, Jahidi white from the Suns for a future first rounder.

The 2004 draft saw the Hornets receive the 4th overall pick by automation. The Hornets then packaged it in a deal where they agreed to take Predrag Drobnjak in the expansion draft from the Clippers and the 33rd pick in the draft for the 2nd overall pick. This pick was used to draft Omeka Okafor, who went on to win rookie of the year but had a painfully average career, not really progressing further.

How are the Bobcats today? Well, now they are the Hornets again after the New Orleans Hornets rebranded to the Pelicans, allowing the Bobcats to retake the original Charlotte Hornet name. Charlotte found it difficult to start to improve their brand; attendance was low as the team had a real struggle to be competitive. The Hornets were owned by Michael Jordan, who failed to run the team successfully and ended up selling the ownership of the team recently. But the team is now valued at around $3 billion, compared to the $300 million that was paid back in 2002 to open the team. This really shows the value of opening an NBA team; the rapid expansion of the league should be really enticing to potential bidders in the modern day.

Another case study: Raptors-Grizzlies expansion 1995

  As we have brought up the chance of international expansion, it would be a good idea to recap the last time this happened as well: back in 1993, the NBA announced the expansion of the league to two new teams in Canada, the Toronto Raptors and the Vancouver Grizzlies. John Bitove paid the fee for the Raptors, and Arthur Griffiths (at the time, owned the Vancouver Canucks) paid the fee for the Grizzlies to diversify his ownership of the city's sporting portfolio.   This expansion draft was way worse; I don't think I know any of these names. I'm quite young, but you could tell the average roster quality of the 90s was much lower than nowadays. The only one I know is BJ Armstrong, who was picked by Toronto but didn’t report to training and was then traded. The 1995 NBA draft saw the Grizzlies and Raptors were given the 6theand 7thepick, the only noticeable pick of the two was Damon Stoudemire for the Raptors, who ended up winning Rookie of the Year and had a 20 ppg season, but again wasn’t doing it on a winning team, fell off after a few years, and ended up having an average career. The worst thing about this was that these picks were only one pick away from NBA legend Kevin Garnett and two away from another big name in Rasheed Wallace. Past these two, the talent in the rest of the draft dropped off.   

Due to the poor level of talent, both teams tanked heavily and were incredibly poor in their inaugural season. It was initially obvious in Vancouver that there were problems with fan support, but we will get to that later.

One of the most interesting things about this expansion is how both teams had very different outcomes for their expansion. Toronto still has the Raptors; they were able to draft names such as Vince Carter and Tracy McGrady in their early existence and were successful early and were able to pick up a large fanbase and be very successful as a franchise due to that. They would go on to win the 2019 NBA championship after one of the biggest moments in NBA history. They are worth $4.5 billion today.

The Grizzlies became victims of low success, poor draft picks, and low attendance. This led to low revenue, mixed with a weak Canadian dollar. A deadly concoction for the team, in 2001 the team decided to move to Memphis, where they have found success today.

This is a great showcase for how an international expansion may go. The Toronto Raptors were huge for the international expansion of the game and have led to a boom in the number of Canadian basketball players in recent times. The Grizzlies show how poor team decisions and malpractice, as well as incorrect evaluation of demand in the area, cause a huge mark on this expansion. This is something to keep in mind for future international expansions.

How may it look today?

  Let's assume that two teams are added in the next expansion, with a cost of $4 billion dollars. I would expect the expansion draft to have a lot fewer trades where teams ask expansion teams to take certain players, as there is much more value to be found in using these picks to find valuable players rather than the picks that the Bobcats got, for example. 

I would predict that the NBA would give the teams two picks from 4-6, maybe ban them from the 1st pick the next year, but I doubt this would happen after viewing the results of some of the expansion teams mentioned earlier.

I also expect each team to find much more early success in their player names, marketing, and team success, just due to the value you can find in the expansion draft, the young potential that could be found, and the past ability to find all-star-level players hidden in these drafts. I would be surprised if these teams don't find one hidden gem each. And this just highlights the extreme need to dilute the league due to the high concentration of potential and ability in the league's current players.

I would also expect a league relocation, due to the NBA being heavily eastern concentrated and most cities rumoured to be part of an NBA expansion being on the west; this means that one of the teams in the western conference will have to move through to the eastern conference. The three teams that should be rumoured to make this move should be the Pelicans, Timberwolves, and Grizzlies. If it were up to me, I would pick the Pelicans and move them to the NBA Southeast Division, though I see an argument for the other teams.  I would be surprised if this expansion changed the playoffs at all, but if it was doubled, we could see another playoff game, maybe a bye for the first seed. There are many routes for how the NBA may change the playoffs, and as previously stated, Adam Silver is very open to expanding offseason play, changing the layout, and trying to maximise profits and is largely successful if it isn't anything to do with the All-Star Game.

I'd expect to see change is an extra two teams added to the lottery; we would see the draft be expanded to 64 total picks and 16 lottery picks in the 1st round.  The two cities I predict to be picked would be Seattle and Las Vegas; both teams make too much sense for how the NBA has been working towards this eventual expansion. This should help us predict how fanbases may be built. Seattle should be very easy to build; they have obviously already got the fanbase prepped and would immediately have interest in the team from a national perspective and probably an international perspective in terms of just pure nostalgia but also a large local support base. Vegas would and should try to harness the effects they've seen on their NHL team, the Golden Knights, who have been successful in their own sport and hope to build upon the foundation the Raiders may leave on the city. They hope that the rapidly expanding sports scene, as well as the already infamous city life, will serve as a destination for people outside the city to come in and splash some cash on tickets on their holidays.

Timeline?

 

2025: NBA TV deals and Boston Celtics ownership are sold; first expansion meetings are held.

We can pretty much expect that both will be complete either during the offseason or during the 2025/26 season; this means that past this point, the NBA will be fully focused on proposing an expansion of the NBA.

2026: Earliest point of expansion announcement; expected expansion fee released, and NBA shortlist cities.

 This is the earliest point at which the NBA could announce the expansion, but I would be extremely surprised if this were the year it happens; it would seem rushed by the NBA and seems overly optimistic that we get the rumoured expansion during this year. Would it be impossible? I wouldn't be totally caught off guard, though, if we get that at the end of that year.

2027: Announcement of expansion, start season and city, bidding for ownership.

I would expect us to get an announcement during this calendar year, after a good time for the NBA to investigate and find the most demand for a team. It would be worrying if we didn't have one by this point. Let's say we get the announcement this year. We would be expecting the teams to start during the 2028/29 season if they have the infrastructure implemented already as we expected, or 2029/30 if there are other circumstances we can’t see now.

And then we start the waiting game, waiting for the team's inaugural season, expansion draft, and opening games after a total of 4/5 years from the first expansion meetings at least. This gives you an idea; it just isn't coming very soon. Will we be getting information soon? Absolutely, but if we are waiting for that opening game, we could be waiting a half decade from today.

Conclusion and final points

  Well, that’s it, my entire overview of the potential NBA expansion that intrigues us all, a recap of the points 

-Why now?

-Where?

-How does it work?

-What may it look like today?

-My expected timeline

What I would love to see is you guys discussing the topics I brought up, whether that be the evaluations of the previous teams, my timeline and expectations, or the cities I bring up. I am not Adam Silver; I don’t know, but I've spent, I think, 10+ hours working on this over the last week, primarily reading articles and watching videos of Adam Silver repeatedly. Never will one man's voice be replayed in my head as much as this guy's. But I hope you enjoyed the 2nd article. Have some debates in the comments, disagree with me, educate me.

See you guys' next Thursday with the next one you vote for; voting opens tomorrow!!!!