I know, I know all the emotional appeals about Brown at the Championship rally, its a great feel good moment the one more year chant. I gotta tell you its not going to be Denver. I can't tell you where it will be but Denver is not his long term home.
A little Empathy
Bruce Brown Jr. entered the league as a 2nd round draft pick out of Miami. He's scrapped and clawed for everything. He's done, to me and you exceptionally well by outside metrics, he's earned 15 million over 5 seasons. However, step into his shoes for a moment , using your own salary and stability no you don't need to tell us what is but for comparisons:
If you are an hourly worker managing a Burger King for $32,000 a year and Subway offers you a job managing 10 subways as a regional manager for $140,000 a year including a $32,000 singing bonus as a sign for their commitment can you turn it down?
Let's say you are not an hourly worker, lets say you make 70,000 a year you do ok but you still budget your mortgage (if you have one for those of you under student loan debt these are things if you own a home you don't so just pretend with me); you try to save a little on 401K you manage to get decent health care you buy your cars serviceable and a year old; you get offered $350,000 plus relocation and college expenses to be an executive administrator for a well run company in another state? - How fast exactly does your family pickup?
You do a little better you make $130,000 a year as a software developer. Google Calls they want you to work on a four-year new pilot project and they are willing to pay $520,000 for the duration of the project, you really love your current company its cozy but really is that money you would turn down?
Who really is "out'
Denver. Right now Denver is actually in among the worst positions. The most Denver is allowed under the CBA rules to pay Bruce Brown Jr. is 7.7 Million dollars (that's it). They could sign him to a 2-year deal 7.7 this season and 8.5 (roughly) next season with that 2nd year a player option, but that's it nothing more just not allowed.
Denver could also move some high priced players by trading away future assets and lowering team value to get under the tax-payer line and offer Brown 12.2 million each year for the next two years but that's not likely Denver would need to move around significant assets and effect their team core in other ways to get under (and stay under) the tax-payer line at 169.5 (once you use the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception you are had capped at if for the year).
Who else is "out"
The Sign and trade market, mostly. There could be some exceptions however, for purposes of outgoing salary Brown is limited here as well. It's simply leaving way to much on the table because he's an Early Bird player with limited options.
Possible but not likely in my humble opinion
The new Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception(NTMLE) would be a possibility, for Brown Jr. though I think its a fall back rather than a primary option. This is looking like it will come in at $12,403,000 significantly more than Brown is making now but there is a catch - the contract length maxes out at 2 years.
That is a significant pay bump for Brown (double) and at the end of which he would be a free agent.
++Which Non-Tax Paying teams would be available++ New Orleans Pelicans, Minnesota , Memphis, Cleveland, TChicago, Milwaukee, Washington, Dallas, Los Angeles Lakers.
A couple more with caveats: Philadelphia 76ers - Believe it or not if Harden opts out they qualify Brooklyn Nets* - Though this could be not for long when Detroit makes a Cemeron Johnson offer. They could use it before but they'd be hardcapped if they used the NTMLE to 169.5 that sorta would give Detroit a bullseye on exactly how high to make the Johnson offer. [The Nets need to shave 17-22 million for absolute safety before using the NTMLE.] Portland - though this is highly unlikely to be used unless Lillard or Simons is moved due to the hard caping effects Toronto - Toronto is projected "just over" the cap in practical cap space. IF they lose VanVleet and deal out Siakam they may well fall into the next group being cap room teams.
Bottom Line Any of those teams can offer Brown 2 years fully guarantied 25.43 total. It doesn't really do him much good to take the 2nd year as player option except for strategy , he needs to get to 2 years somewhere to really maximizes his value. He could take that second player option and opt out again next season to re-sign at 175% of his salary or league average (whichever is lesser) but it's kinda dicey.
The age is a thing
Normally, he may decide to bet on himself take 2 years on the NTMLE and try to resign. I don't think that's in his financial best interests. Brown is 26 as I write this he turns 27 in July. 2 More years he's 29, will someone want to give him a 4 year deal at 29? Is he "that type of player?" I can't answer that but my gut says that's a huge risk, plus he can get "some" of those features from another team
Easiest and best financial option
By far the best and cleanest pathway to a new contract is with one of the cap space teams.
Brown Jr.'s next contract estimate from one of these teams ranges from 14-20 million per season but unlike the deals above could run years giving him essential security. 20 Million would be a little rich but I think 16 or 17 as a starting salary is highly likely. Those teams are Houston Rockets, Utah, San Antonio, Indiana , Detroit, Orlando , and Oklahoma City I'll examine each here.
Houston - Is heavily linked to James Harden who would basically "break the bank" with a max contract in the 40's eating most of Houston's 60 million in cap room. If the Rockets sign Harden they can likely squeeze room for Dillion Brooks (or Brown) but certainly not both. If Harden passes though and returns to the 76ers (or moves elsewhere on sign and trade) Houston could sign VanVleet - Brooks - and Bruce Brown Jr without many problems.
Utah Jazz - Utah is in a bit of flux still because they still have Horton-Tucker and Clarkson weighing player options. Brown would be a sure fire upgrade over either and in a relatively thing free agent market Brown Jr. would likely fit in exceptionally well with the Jazz.
San Antonio Spurs - The Spurs still need a PG that's not Brown. I'm not really sure what the Spurs direction will be with Wemby but they have about 37 million. Most expect them to be judicious in free agency and see the team develop around Wemby but you never know and they do need to sign some people to get to at least 90% of the cap, whether they want to give Brown 4 years right now with Vassell the target of their love is another matter. I don't see the fit here.
Indiana Pacers - I actually like the fit here especially if they move on from Buddy Heild. Halliburton - Brown Jr. and Mauthrin sounds a bit like a law firm but it wouldn't disrupt their build back and seems to fit.
Detroit Pistons - I'm not seeing the fit. The Pistons need help in the front court and with general maturity plus they going to take a run at Cam Johnson.
Orlando Magic - This really depends on how many PGs the Magic move out in the next week or so. They currently have 4 including combo guard Jalen Suggs. Brown directly addresses the Magic's need for 3 point shooting and their stated want of veteran playoff experience (Brown has both with Brooklyn and he just won a title) but this only makes sense if the Magic move on from either Suggs, Cole or Fultz and likely more than 1. However if they are dealt, Brown steps into a starting position next to Fultz with Jett Howard and Anthony Black respectively behind them in the order.
Summary: Brown honestly benefits all these teams, if I had to handicap it I would say: Houston then Utah then Orlando are likely landing spots 4 years starting at 17.2 Million with 5% escalation, the final year a team option and a 15% trade kicker.
How about you where do you see Brown Jr. Landing?