Thunder beat the Pacers in five games. While this could be a bit disrespectful to Indiana, this is more of just praising the Thunder. I think they match up well and I’ve learned to never doubt them. Both teams are 12-4 in the playoffs so far, so this should be great basketball, despite the ratings probably not being great. Let’s break this down.

Obviously, the Thunder defense vs. the Pacers offense is what everyone will look forward to. Indiana likes to run in transition, just like the Thunder, but they have great shooting and athletic guys who can finish at the rim. Oklahoma City plays very physical, so Indiana will have to take care of the ball or else the Thunder will get out in transition where they are at their best. The Pacers have averaged just 12.7 turnovers per game, which is fifth in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City has forced an insane 18.0 turnovers per game. If this is happening, Indiana will lose the series. Not to mention, this has led to 25.3 transition points per game, but that is second in these playoffs behind you guessed it, the Pacers. In the half court, I’d imagine the matchups to start the series are Jalen Williams on Tyrese Haliburton, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on Andrew Nembhard, Lu Dort on Aaron Nesmith, Chet Holmgren on Pascal Siakam, and Myles Turner on Isaiah Hartenstein. The problem with this is that Hartenstein will get spaced out by Turner, so I wouldn’t be shocked if the Thunder close/start with Cason Wallace or Alex Caruso instead of Hartenstein later in the series. In that case, Wallace/Caruso will be on Haliburton, SGA on Nembhard, Dort on Nesmith, JDub on Siakam, and Chet on Turner. OKC could switch everything here as they are a very quick and versatile team. Off the bench, the main guy I’m looking at is Benedict Mathurin. If he isn’t hitting shots which will be hard as he is already an inconsistent shooter and this Thunder defense is great at defending the perimeter, he will be unplayable in this series as he does not have the defense to make up for it. Obi Toppin, TJ McConnell, and Ben Sheppard will have to be impactful on both sides of the ball in this series.

While the Pacers have been a solid defensive team this year, they really struggled against New York with a defensive rating of 116.6. Considering the Thunder are the best defensive team in the league and one of the greatest defensive teams ever in my opinion, the Pacers could go through some rough stretches offensively. Therefore, Indiana will have to slow down this Thunder offense to win this series. Indiana will probably put Nembhard on SGA, Hali on Dort, Nesmith on JDub, Siakam on Chet, and Turner on Hartenstein. Maybe it will be Turner on Chet and Siakam on Hartenstein. I would not be surprised if we see that. If the Thunder go small, it’ll be Nembhard on SGA, Hali on Wallace/Caruso, Nesmith on Dort, Siakam on JDub, and Turner on Chet. The good thing for Indiana is that they do not have any bad defenders starting or playing key minutes outside of Mathurin, so they might switch everything considering Turner is super versatile. If they do end up switching everything, Chet will have to take advantage of smaller defenders and look to score. SGA will obviously be the main factor here. Nembhard is a great defender, but guarding SGA is a very tough task. I expect to see Ben Sheppard get a lot of minutes on him and the same goes for Nesmith. Overall, I do think SGA will have a monster series and could get some Pacers in foul trouble as he is elite at drawing fouls. Lu Dort is a big x-factor here. He’s gonna have to hit shots, which he simply has not done in these playoffs, shooting just 30.4% from three and 34.5% from the field. There could be a game or two where the Thunder shooters go ice cold, especially on the road as a lot of role players play better at home, but I do think there will be a game where it seems like they cannot miss from three.

Game 1: The Thunder dominate the first half, going up by as much as eighteen points. In the third quarter, Indiana cuts the lead to eleven, but a 15-2 Thunder run allows them to pull away. Indiana does not really make things close at all as the Thunder win 112-85.

Game 2: Rick Carslile and the Pacers do make some adjustments and go up by as much as twelve points in the first quarter, but the Thunder storm back and cut the lead to three at halftime. In the third quarter, Oklahoma City pulls away and while Indiana does make a run, they fall 109-101.

Game 3: In a must win game, the Gainbridge Fieldhouse is rocking. The Pacers are up for most of the first half, but the Thunder are still in it. Both teams cannot hit a shot. However, in the third quarter, the Pacers hit seven threes and that results in a 116-103 win for them.

Game 4: The first half is back and forth in a pretty high scoring half and the Pacers are up four. The third quarter is close, but when Tyrese Haliburton subs out, the Thunder go on a 12-0 run and go up by as much as seventeen points early in the fourth. Indiana gets some momentum, but the Thunder still get a huge win on the road, 107-96.

Game 5: Oklahoma City dominates the first quarter, going up by fourteen points. This dominance continues as they go up by as much as twenty-five in the first half. It is looking like a Thunder blowout, but Indiana cuts the lead to seven late in the third. After all, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and this Thunder team is just inevitable, winning 102-89. SGA wins Finals MVP.