I'll be going in order by team name discussing my general pulse for each team's direction with some quick thoughts on them. At the end, I'll tier the teams on what I think their title contention ability is going forward.
76'ers
Yao Ming in Houston 2.0, hope the big fella stays healthy. If he can, the team can quickly retool itself for one last shot to contend. If he can't (very likely), Daryl has a history of keeping his teams competitive until an opportunistic trade/FA signing shows up in times where most would say blow it up. The viability of this strategy through FA signing is much lower now given the current CBA and the contracts on the books. However, trade is much more feasible and Daryl has done this with James Harden before in 2012. The 76'ers are a team that has a fighters punch to compete for a championship if Embiid is fully healthy. If not, it'll be one ugly rebuild until his contract expires with a non-zero chance of moving Maxey during that stretch as his contracts expires then too (2029 off-season).
Bucks
Giannis and a wasteland around him with little flexability. He's a MVP level player still, but he's at the tailend of his peak (early 30's). Ideally, they'd keep Giannis and see if its possible to pull a 2021 -> 2022 Warriors style retool. However, the chances of a successful retool are extremely low with the lack of talent and picks available to them. Next year will be essentially a one year deal for Giannis with his player option coming up in the 2027 off-season, so there's less trade leverage to work with by them. Because of those factors, I'd trade Giannis right now to maximize the chances of winning in the future and enter a long, grueling rebuild. (July 16th edit) After the incredibly bold and creative move of waiving Dame to bring in Myles Turner, I don't view the Bucks as a team with zero hope anymore. It's still quite a long shot, but they can compete for a championship again with a little bit of luck.
Bulls
What the hell are they doing LOL. They need to commit even more to the future and start getting some real star talent in the draft. There's no Jordan, Pippen or Rose type of player for them yet. Trading Coby White (and Vucevic if he has any trade value) makes sense as he's a quality veteran on an expiring contract and the Bulls need to rebuild. That Patrick Williams contract is not a massive anchor on the franchise, but it's not a great contract either and limits their flexability a bit. He'll be most useful in 2028 off-season as an expiring contract salary filler to move for better players once the Bulls are done rebuilding going into the 28-29 season.
Cavs
64 win team, solid playoff experience now, continuity adding up and still have youth on their side. While there are a lot of questions on the margins for this group, the main determining factor is Evan Mobley. He must take another jump in his game offensively and dominate consistently, 1B to Mitchell's 1A on offense. If that happens, the Cavs will finally be a real contender to win it all. It's the bet the Cavs made with the D-Mitch trade in the first place, Mobley becoming a superstar. Overall, I like where the Cavs are at, basically keep at it with D-Mitch+Mobley and hope for the best.
Celtics
Tatum injury derails next season, however, they still got some talent on the team to make the plaoffs. For them, they can retool next year and pull a 2021 -> 2022 Warriors type scenario. I like the trades Brad has made to get them away from the 2nd apron of death, it's all about making the 2027 Celtics as good as possible now.
Hawks
The day they built around Trae Young successfully has finally come, loving the moves they've made recently (s/o to Joe Dumbass for gifting them a top 10 pick next year). They are positioned to be a good team with roster continuity, elite coaching, salary flexability, young upside and quality draft picks available all in one. Now they can go into the next few years making playoff runs, continue developing their identity and positioning themselves to be one move away from contention. They can do this by trade, nailing that Pelicans pick and/or someone on the team makes that top 10 player jump to become a contending team.
Heat
I'm conflicted with this team. On one hand, they're the Miami Heat, a team that has set a never-tank culture like no other, have the madman genius in coach Spo and have contended often too in the last 15 years. They have a Ware/Jovic/Bam bigman trio that looks very promising for the next half decade. Tyler Herro has turned himself into a legit low level all-star and still in his mid 20's. On the other hand, their ability to land a legit top 10 talent is questionable at best given the chances they've let slip through in the Jimmy era and lack of assets in general. To justify keeping this core together and not bottom out, they need to build continuity and position themselves for a top 10 talent. One option is to heavily invest into young talent for at least a year, land a top 10 pick and then retool. After that, remain a good team and stay alert for any stars that come up on the market. Their aggression for top 10 talent must be unhinged though, it's not worth being a mediocre team with OK talent at best year after year. The viability of that strategy is questionable though, their trade assets and salary flexability is lesser compared to many other teams. Another option is trading Bam and Herro and getting as much as possible. After that, it'll be trying to draft the next Bam and Herro, but theyll be on rookie scale contracts instead of max deals. With that and the pick abundance built up through those star trades, they can target FAs and quickly build up again. I prefer the that plan depending on the return for Bam and how bad Miami can be to deliberately tank. That strategy would only be worth it with a clear pick abundance after trades. Otherwise, they'd be sucking just to end up in likely the same situation as now but with less continuity.
Hornets
I like what they got. LaMelo is already a star player and proven when healthy to be around top 30 (see 2022 for that one). Brandon Miller is at least intriguing enough so far and has the prospect pedigree to turn into a star wing in the future. With another top 5 pick talent being added, all they need is a star big talent to shape a core that can position themselves to at least knock at the door of contention. They also do have a draft pick surplus, that helps add fexability to make roster moves going forward. So far, not bad, but still quite a climb up for the Hornets to reach contention. By next off-season, they should shift to being more deliberate in their attempts at making the playoffs as it'll be time for this team show what they got.
Knicks
The Thibs firing was a little weird, although if they bring in someone with more creative flair on offense, I'd get it. Their core has the makings of a contender with Brunson being a top 10 player and a lot of quality players with him. That bench though, it needs major upgrades and adding another on-ball attacker wouldnt hurt. Moving Josh to 6th man role is also probably for the best and let KAT run next to Mitch more. Overall, they've done excellent in the Leon Rose era, they should continue their overall process.
Magic
Identity, coaching, depth, young talent and some playoff experience is there. Bane trade in that context is a great trade, he's a top 5 shooter in the NBA who can be a capable on-ball playmaker and fits their physicality identity super well. They've clearly gone all-in on Banchero becoming that top 10 player, quite risky but not too unreasonable to bank on. I like what they've done overall, I'm excited to see what is next for them going forward as they continue their plan.
Nets
They should full commit to tanking next season, they need a top 5 pick talent desperately. There's no reason to not move Cam and Clax too, the current roster would have a very difficult time quickly retooling itself into a contender overnight even with their picks. They're very well positioned to commit to a full rebuild though with all those picks they got at least. I like their coach too, Jordi is a keeper.
Pacers
Haliburton injury is heartbreaking and derailed a realisitic back-to-back finals team next year. This next year should be to better position some of the other players to grow their game without Haliburton. Hopefully Pascal Siakam can remain a legit star at 33, not improbable but that's always an age where volatility exist for performance. Another hope is that they'll be willing to bring back Myles Turner, he's the ideal partner next to Siakam and nearly impossible to replace. I'd go as far as salary dumping someone to make it happen. Continuing the path already built is their only way, loved what they've done up to this point and unfair that they're in this situation.
Pistons
I'm liking their direction a lot. Cade has a shot of becoming a top 10 talent and is surrounded with 3 other athletic top 5 pick talents. They got good role players, an identity that's developing and made the playoffs to then play a competitive series. Their ability to contend depends on the development of the other 3 prospects surrounding Cade as he continues to develop. Their lack of a pick surplus hurts their flexability a bit, but they make up for it with talent already on the roster. I'd continue what they're currently doing as theyre putting themselves on a path to sustained success.
Raptors
I'm very confused by their direction. Lots of good players, but their upside seems to be a competitive yet underwhelming playoff team. No player seems like they can reach top 10 status, no pick abundance, not a desired market for most players. I might not completely hit reset, but I'd trade out some of their veteran talent for a clear pick abundance and get at least another top 10 pick in next years draft. At that point, they can be an OK team with no clear superstar, but they can build up continuity and identity without costing themselves the chance of obtaining a top 10 talent via trade.
Wizards
Interesting strategy they're deploying with all the expiring contracts lining up. This has the Travis Schlenk smell to it, using free agency to help out a young core while on rookie scale deals aggressively like he did in 2020. The Wizards have made a few top 5 and top 10 selections recently, have another one coming up next season as they tank yet again and have a clear pick surplus. This is fundamentally sound team building, now it's about finding what the identity of the team will be going forward. Overall, I love what the Wizards have done so far and is a similar strategy I'd utilize myself if I were rebuilding a team.
Clear Positive
Cavs
Celtics (assumes Tatum comes back as a top 10 player)
Hawks
Knicks
Magic
Pacers (assumes Haliburton comes back as a top 10 player)
Pistons
Small Positive
Bucks (was negative before the Myles Turner addition)
Heat
Hornets
Nets
Wizards
Negative
76'ers (assumes Embiid is cooked)
Bulls
Raptors
https://fanspo.com/nba/s/general/trades/gYow0t8yOopIo6/contender-viability-western-conference (West)