I’d only do this trade if the first part of the season goes a certain way.

If Houston realizes after 20–30 games that the KD experiment isn’t really working and they still don’t have enough to compete with the top teams in the West, I could see them moving him instead of wasting another season. Toppin, Nesmith, Jarace + 2 firsts and 2 Kings seconds is a nice package, but Houston could flip those pieces again and go all-in for someone like Booker, who I think would be a really good fit there.

For Indiana, it’s basically the same thing. If they’re good but realize they don’t have enough firepower to actually compete with the best teams in the East, KD would be perfect. KD next to Hali would be insane, and adding Siakam too would give them crazy offensive firepower.

For Sacramento, it’s basically just a way to get Sheppard and Furphy without giving up anything too important.

So I wouldn’t do this trade right now. But if Houston and Indiana both realize they need to make a big move, this could actually make a lot of sense.