I think a Thunder trade is probably unlikely, but I have seen a bunch of Siakam to the Thunder trades on here, so I think this would probably be a realistic basis for one. The deal couldn't close until September, when the salary filler pieces are legal to be traded, but that's still well before training camp.

For the Raptors, if a Siakam trade happens there will be a high value young player highlighting the package. If not, a deal just won't happen. Masai refused to trade OG for three firsts at the deadline, reportedly saying a deal would have to include a high value youngster, so there's no way Masai trades his All-NBA'er for random future picks. The Raps aren't looking to do a long term rebuild, they are looking to build around Scottie, and random future picks that will become rookies when Scottie is on his second contract don't accomplish that goal.

Of course, the Raps lost their starting PG, and are all about size, so a jumbo playmaker like Giddey is exactly the piece Masai would be asking for. Theoretically, guys like Chet or Jalen Williams could substitute for Giddey here, but neither seems like as good a fit (Chet is unproven and just missed his whole rookie season with injury, while Williams would just increase the Raps' overabundance of wings, with OG and Scottie still being there). Giddey's three point shooting isn't great, so the fit alongside Scottie isn't ideal, but he has shown improvement, and he's good enough to be worth overlooking and working around that.

From the Thunder side, SGA is a First Team All-NBA'er, and they have good supporting pieces around him. They overperformed this past year, and I think they will be looking to start winning for real this year. This might be too aggressive a trade for them, but you aren't going to find a better second option in the NBA than Pascal. He's already won a title as a #2 guy, and is much better now than he was then. SGA plus Pascal would be an amazing 1-2 punch, and as long as the rest of the guys show growth around those two, that's the basis for a true contender.

Will this happen? Probably not. Pascal doesn't want to leave Toronto, and it would be super risky for the Thunder to deal Giddey without some level of assurance that Pascal will re-sign. Still, the on-court fit is exceptional, and this is the sort of deal where the Thunder would be giving themselves a legit championship level 1-2 punch, while still having a ton of assets left to fill any remaining gaps. Windows in the NBA tend to close much quicker than teams think. The "OKC dynasty that never was" is proof of that. So, there's an argument to just go for it. There's no guarantee Pascal re-signs, but the Thunder have a hell of a pitch for him to re-sign, and would have the ability to offer him more than any other team. There aren't likely to be any better options available in free agency than what the Thunder can offer, so it might be a risk worth taking.