Mavericks won´t offer AD the max extension so they gonna trade him this season. Especially with Kyrie being out until at least to the Deadline.
Explanation:
Pistons:
They really need a Big with spacing and shooting, Porzingis could be the missing peace with his defense and spacing. He would be a low minutes bench player to prevent him from injuries. (something like 15MPG) As well the Pistons lack shooting. Their wings can't shoot consistently and Duncan Robinson is the only real floor spreader. In regular season this is often no problem, but those Teams with good tough defense and bad spacing are always struggling in the Playoffs. Even if Porzingis is getting injured, Kennard would be a big improvement with shooting 45.8% on 3.1 3PA per Game.
Overall the Pistons don't loose a lot :
LeVert is having a bad season and Ivey never really came back from his inury. He was never a part of the Team, when they played consistent winning basketball, as well it looks like they don't want to give him an extension so a trade seems probable before the deadline.
Hawks:
The Hawks really want to add AD to their Team and build a defensive mindset (Yes they really said that and Nico Harrison is not he ATL GM). They. didn't get a pick for Trae Young and so I think they don't want to spent one trading for AD. All Mavs fans really want to have the Pels pick, but I'm pretty certain it is not available. So the 2nd best thing(Player) the Mavs want is Risacher and the Hawks have to trade him for AD, you can't trade for a Top Player and not sacrifice anything.
Overall the Hawks try something with AD, but as well as the Pistons it is a low risk move. Yes Risacher is a young prospect and 1st overall pick in his 2nd Year, but everybody knows he will never live up to 1st overall expectations. It looks like he could end up being solid third/fourth Option like a Tobias Harris or Brandon Ingram. But the Hawks young core is looking promising and they keep the Pels Pick which is huge for them.
Mavs:
The Mavs close the Book on Nico Harrisons "Legacy" and move on with Cooper Flagg and Kyrie. The fit between the current Roster an AD is very bad, especially Offensively. He moves very slow is not anymore a reliable first option on a team with ambitions to be a Play-Off Team. He is averaging career low 20.4 PPG (excluded Rookie Season) and his lowest FG% since 2016, despite leading the NBA in second Chance points. He really needs a Team build around him, spacing and a real PG feeding him in the low post. All that the Mavs just don't have right now.
With adding Jaden Ivey and Risacher the Mavs are getting young talent on the Wing and shot creation at the 2. They can give Ivey the chance to prove them he is still capable of being a high scoring guard and the decide if they want to extend his contract this summer. As well this gives them the chance to trade Klay Thompson to a contender for a SRP and expiring contract.
Overall the Mavs could form a really talented Young core with Flagg, Christie, Lively, Risacher and Ivey + 26 FRP. And this is the point the Mavs trade AD + rest Kyrie the rest of the Year for signaling to the Team, that they want to tank and get the best possible Player in the upcoming draft. To attack for a Championship in 2-3 Years built around Cooper Flagg and a Veteran Kyrie.
--- The biggest Question is why would the Atlanta Hawks trade for AD if you can get Giannis? The answer they want to keep their picks and have 2 chances.
Team around JJ and AD
Team around JJ and their new young core when AD is done
The clear winner in this trade are the Detroit Pistons. The can add the last missing pieces to their team, while the Mavericks end up Trading Luka Doncic for
Max Christie
Zac Risacher
Jaden Ivey
2029 Lakers Unprotected FRP
Maybe in 5 Years we look back and the Luka trade turns out to be the best thing ever happened to the Mavs, but you could at least got 3 more picks from the Lakers.
--- Let me know what you think about this idea!