There's been some real casual commentary on the Minnesota Timberwolves defense to start out this Western Conference Finals, and I just can't sit back and watch it any longer. The discussions around the way these first two games have unfolded have been so dumb, I thought it'd be worth it to write about what strategies Minnesota is employing, to what degree they're working, and why/why not.
Game 1 misconception: "Drop coverage? What am I, an idiot?"
The more you study basketball, the more you become a Drop Coverage truther. There is a reason it has become employed this frequently at such a high-level. Across thousands of NBA games, it can clearly force offenses into taking low percentage twos, and, for some worse shooting ball-handlers, open threes that the defense is willing to live with. The biggest change in narrative about this coverage was in 2022, when drop coverage came under fanbase wide scrutiny during the NBA Finals, where the Warriors beat the Celtics. If you were online at all during that, you'll know the whole world was talking about Udoka's instruction to play "drop coverage" on Stephen Curry. I'll admit, for a second, even I was in on this mindset. But it has become so, so abundantly clear ever since- what Boston was doing in that game was nowhere near drop coverage. Horford and the other C's bigs were often three to four steps above the three-point line. No reasonable basketball coach or player can call that drop coverage by any stretch of the imagination- Stephen Curry is just THE outlier for three point shooting range in history. So already, we've been dealing with this really shallow criticism of drop coverage that has swept NBA fans. How does this relate to this series?
First and foremost, as we discuss these games, you have to understand that the Timberwolves are far, FAR from being "outclassed," even as they go down 0-2. Both losses were precipitated in short, but intense Dallas runs down the wire. The Wolves' offense has been very inefficient, but of course, the context of this match up really puts Gobert's defense in the spotlight, despite their offensive woes being way, way more relevant.
In Game 1 of this WCF series, the Timberwolves used a somewhat mild form of drop coverage. Their screen defenders sometimes stepped up a couple feet, which is a bit tighter. They led nearly the whole game. The Mavs shot 24% from deep, but outrebounded Minnesota, and nearly doubled their points in the paint. And believe it or not, we had people on the internet saying, "Haha! Told ya, drop coverage is a recipe for disaster!" Just not how that works, man. You're suggesting the Wolves stop guarding the rim, when they lost a game to 24% perimeter shooting and a huge discrepancy in paint scoring?
Game 2 misconception: "Gobert on the perimeter with the game on the line?"
In the second game, Minnesota went back to blitzing Luka on the screen, which is what they did in the regular season. Throughout the game, this was a fairly effective approach. As we saw, Minnesota had an even stronger lead, this time leading by 18, before unfolding in the fourth quarter.
Now, let's talk about that Luka game-winner. On the inbound, Jaden McDaniels picks up Luka at halfcourt. Dereck Lively comes up to screen, and Rudy, still on Lively, blitzes. McDaniels attempts to stay connected to Luka, but Lively does an EXCELLENT job of muscling him out of the play, blocking downcourt. In those two seconds, McDaniels is iced out of the blitz, and Rudy is forced to commit to a full on switch. In the next few seconds, as Luka dances, Rudy actually does a great job in space. In the 26-30 feet mark, Gobert is on him tight. As Luka gets more aggressive, Rudy opens his hips up to the sidelines. He understands they are only up by 2, and is encouraging Luka to blow by him and attack the basket for a tie. At the three-point line Rudy bites a little too hard on a jab dribble, and Luka steps back for the three.
Obviously, ideally, they wanted a straight jacket on Luka, preferably trapping him on the initial blitz, either getting him to pass, or, even better, pick up the ball. Lively's incredible screen did not allow for this. Out of sorts, the Wolves decided to let Gobert go 1v1 with Luka. And guess what, man. He did fine. Luka is just magic. How are we even debating this. How are we having these conversations. You can count on your hands the number of people who can successfully guard that, and Gobert is one of them. Luka hit a step-back three over a multiple time DPOY 7 footer. But the Wolves led by 18, their two best players are 33% and 27% on the series, and the conversations we're having are about Minnesota's errant defense?
Come on, man.