It took me a lot of work, so please read the whole thing, like,flame and comment.
Tier 2: Pretenders 🎭
They are legit. They are elite. They could lift the cup if the top teams relax for a minute.
Australia 🇦🇺🦘
Projected lineup:
Josh Giddey, Dante Exum, Dyson Daniels, Josh Green, Jock Landale
A really solid team. Their guard rotation is legit. Giddey, Patty, Dyson, Exum... they are all good performers on offense, and some are really good on defense. It's their centers that don't convince me. Jock Landale isn't bad, and Duop Reath can be decent, but they're far from that Wemby-Gobert who is going to dominate. To sum up, the youngsters are going to have to step up and fill the older ones shoes.
Turkey 🇹🇷🌯
Projected lineup:
Shane Larkin, Tarik Biberobic, Cedi Osman, Ercan Osmani, Alperen Sengun
Another team with a star that goes wild on a FIBA court. On the EuroBasket, Sengun went off for 22+10+7+1+1 and 29.3 of PIR to lead them to the 2nd place. Unlike other great teams, their power forwards and centers are very deep and solid: Osman, Osmani, Sengun, Bona, Yurtseven, Sanli... it's world-level rebounding and rim protection, which can make the difference in even games. Also, their guard rotation is nice, with Larkin, Hazer, Sipahi and Korkmaz, but aging. If Alperen is at his best level, they really have a chance at the cup.
Finland 🇫🇮☃️
Projected lineup:
Miro Little, Elias Valtonen, Olivier Nkamhoua, Lauri Markkanen, Mikael Jantunen
Their cinderella run they did last year in the EuroBasket is just a sneak peak of their future: Markkanen (29), Jantunen (26), Valtonen (27), Nkamhoua (26), Little (22), Maxhuni (28), Grandison (28), Gustavson (27) and Muurinen (19) are all under 30 players in the roster that finnished in 4th place. If they end up in some easy group, we could see them in the knockouts... but they will have to deliver far from home too.
Greece 🇬🇷🦖
Projected lineup:
Vasileios Toliopoulos, Tyler Dorsey, Kostas Papanikolau, Giannis Antrtokoumpo, Konstantinos Mitoglu
I don't think I need to explain how good Giannis is, and he is surrounded by good 3 pt shooters: Dorsey (47.4%), Sloukas (44%) Toliopoulos (38.9%), Mitoglu (44.4%) and Larentzakis (42.9%) were great from behind the arc on the EuroBasket. But this team is VERY Giannis-dependant, and there will be players that lock him, so Spanoulis will need a plan B, or they won't go far.
Spain 🇪🇦🫂
Projected lineup:
Sergio de Larrea, Hugo González, Juancho Hernangómez, Santi Aldama, Willy Hernangómez.
This is probably the biggest generational transition in this ranking. Name by name, this team isn't that good, but chemistry has always been great in Spain. The thing, good or bad, is that they're young, with Hugo, Larry, Baba Miller, Aday Mara, Mario Saint-Supery and Álvaro Cárdenas most likely on the squad, and that will be fun to watch, but it's an experiment that could go wrong, or really good. Aldama is ready to be a star in a squad where no one shines too bright, and they are going to make noise.
Lithuania 🇱🇹❄️
Projected lineup:
Rokas Jokubaitis, Kasparas Jakucionis, Matas Buzelis, Azoulas Tubelis, Domantas Sabonis
This Lithuania team is always the same. Their twin towers in Domantas- Valanciunas are top 10 in the World, but their chemistry is below zero. Jokubaitis is doing great and then his knee strikes back. It's a nice roster, but they never deliver. Now they added Kasper and Matas, which is exciting. So far, Jakucionis has been great (he posted 12 PTS, 10 AST in his national team debut), and Buzelis has had trouble to adapt to FIBA. Shoutout to Tubelis "the right man for the job", who is a silent killer that goes off for 18 and 7 in the World Cup Qualifiers. They know how to put up a fight, and they will try with all they have to not miss the tournament.
Italy 🇮🇹🍕
Projected lineup:
Darius Thompson, Alessandro Pajola, Saliou Niang, Simone Fontecchio, Mouhamet Diouf
This team is a perfect combo of athleticism with all those players born in Africa, Procida and Fontecchio; and old dog mentality with Thompson, Melli or Ricci. Even though they're missing a star, they are the perfect ballance between run-and-gun style and veteran experience. They have to fill a big hole on scoring, assists and rebounds, but they have a lot of potential. Don't sleep on this Italy side.