It took me a lot of work, so please read the whole thing, like, flame and comment.
Tier 3: Underdogs 🐶
Not candidates... on the paper. But no one would like to face them in a single-game knockout.
Slovenia 🇸🇮🎩
Projected lineup:
Aleksej Nikolic, Luka Doncic, Klemen Prepelic, Edo Muric, Jaxon Hayes.
Luka and 4 more. He led the team in points, rebounds, assists, blocks (❓️), steals and efficiency the last EuroBasket. Just having him makes them a tough opponent. He went off for 34.7 PTS (ranked 1st), 7.1 AST (2nd), 8.6 REB (8th), 2. 7 STL (1st) and 36.6 PIR (1st). Surrounding him, the players are mediocre, altough, God knows how, they managed to be 2nd in PPG. In the paint, Hayes gives them a very decent rim protection and athleticism, but you never know how he's going to adapt to FIBAbasketball. If they really want to be big in Qatar, Luka can't be alone.
Poland 🇵🇱💎
Projected lineup:
Andrzej Pluta, Jordan Loyd, Mateusz Ponitka, Jeremy Sochan, Olek Barcelowski
Don't sleep on Poland either. Last year in the EuroBasket, Jordan Loyd carried them to the quarter-finals averaging 22.4 PPG, and Sochan wasn't there. Even though he isn't in the same level as the NBA stars, his 32 point performance vs Slovenia is a masterpiece for a team like his. Outside of that, Pluta dished 3.7 assists per game. Pontika had 18 PPG. Olek shot 72% from 2. In general, it's a dangerous team, not likely that they're going all the way, but they could make one of the contenders drop an important win.
Latvia 🇦🇹🎯
Projected lineup:
Arturs Zagars, Rihards Lomazs, Davis Bertans, Rolands Smits, Kristaps Porzingis
After a great performance in the Philippines World Cup, but since then they have been going like Luis Henrique, downhill and without a break (ifykyk). They choked at home in the Olympic Qualifiers, and then choked again at home in the EuroBasket. So to this point they've just proven they're good at choking at home. On a more positive note, Kristaps posted 20+9+2 blocks on "just" 27 minutes, so he could play well with less risk of injuries. Lomazs had 6 assists per game, which is quite good too. In general, their 2-pt percentage was quite good for most of them. They ranked 4th in less turnovers. The point is, they will have to learn how to perform when they aren't the underdogs
Dominican Republic 🇩🇴🐈
Projected lineup:
Andrés Feliz, Jean Montero, Lester Quiñones, Tyson Pérez, Karl-Anthony Towns
NBA fans probably won't consider this a great squad, but the truth is KAT isn't alone. Their guard rotation is really solid, maybe even better than other higher ranked teams: Montero just had a breakout season posting 14 PTS and 5 AST, and David Jones-García was averaging 25.5 points in the G-League, while Quiñones had 23.3. It's the center position what is pulling them back, with Joel Soriano as the backup for Karl and Tyson Pérez (7.6 and 6.1 in 17 mins in the spanish league) as the starting PF. It wouldn't surprise me if they played 4 of their guards together like Montero, Jones-García, Chris Duarte, Quiñones and Towns, and it wouldn't surprise me if they upset one of the contenders or pretenders.
Israel 🇮🇱🕎
Projected lineup:
Tamir Blatt, Khadeen Carrington, Deni Avdija, Roman Sorkin, Tomer Ginat
Its a solid team. In the last EuroBasket, Deni went off for 24 ppg, including 34 against Slovenia in the group fase, and they finnished 3-2 in the toughest group, even beating France by 13 points. They will most likely be playing small ball with Ginat as the 5, but Yam Madar could enter the starting 5 for Blatt or Carrington, since he is a very intelligent player, who ranked 6th in assists (6.3) and 1st in steals (2.7). Even though their shooting could be better and they are in a tricky situation in the Qualifiers, they got potential.
Croatia 🇭🇷🥊
Projected lineup:
Jaleen Smith, Mario Hezonja, Michael Ruzic, Dario Saric, Ivica Zubac
This team is elite name by name. Their numbers on the Qualifiers are: Hezonja 19+8+5, Saric 18+9+4 and Zubac 21+1. They are being great. But in the Olympic Qualifiers 2 years ago Zubac and Saric punched each other, which obviously isn't a high level of chemistry. That apart, they have a talented, tall team and they will compete in every game if they put their diferences aside and play like the profesionals they are.
Argentina 🇦🇷🌅
Projected lineup:
Facundo Campazzo, Gonzalo Corbalán, Gabriel Deck, Leandro Bolmaro, Juan Fernández
Solid team, but aging. After missing on the 23 World Cup, they have already granted their pressence, but in a year, the team will be quite old. By 2027 Nico Brussino (34), Deck (32), Facu (36), Nico Laprovittola (37) and Luca Vildoza (32) will be over 30, some very old. The season in Europe is long and has many games, and the Cup is nonstop, so injuries might strike. They aren't specially physical either, so they will have to get advantage of their smart players (Campazzo, Vildoza, Lapro...) if they want to be competitive.
Brazil 🇧🇷📉
Projected lineup:
Yago dos Santos, Alexey Borges, Marcio Santos, Gui Santos, Bruno Caboclo
The reigning champs of America. Brazil has never missed a World Cup. But this team isn't exciting. Dos Santos' stint in Europe came to an end really early, Caboclo hasn't been playing big minutes since he left Venezia. Marcio wasn't very good with Maccabi last year. Gui plays very little with the Warriors. Most of the players are in their local league. I'm sure they can surprise me, but I honestly don't see them through the group fase. The good thing for them is that they rank high because they play in America, so they'll get an easier group.