Tier 1: Contenders🏅
The real candidates to go all the way. The top 5 in the World by far.
🥇1. USA 🇺🇲🦅
Projected lineup:
Cade Cunningham, Anthony Edwards, Scottie Barnes, Evan Mobley, Bam Adebayo
It's the only country who's squad I can't guess, and still I'm sure they will be the favourites. I just took a guess with that lineup, so don't come at me, but my point is that in the Qatar World Cup they are going to complete the generational transition that they started in Manila. Squad apart, they got the most powerfull team in the World by far, so the names are going to be great, but they usually choke in this tournament, so you never know. It will be Spoelstra's job to avoid another fumble.
🥈2. France 🇨🇵🥐
Projected lineup:
Sylvain Francisco, Evan Fournier, Bilal Coulibaly, Guerschon Yabusele, Victor Wembanyama.
The depth on this France roster is insane, specially in the center position. Wemby, Gobert, Alex Sarr, Mathias Lessort, Vincent Poirier, Mustapha Fall... almost every national team would like to have the centers they don't even consider calling. No one will want to face them, but after a great performance in the olympics, they will have to deliver far from home.
🥉3. Canada 🇨🇦🫎
Projected lineup:
SGA, Lu Dort, Dillon Brooks, RJ Barrett, Zach Edey
The depth here is crazy too. The only reason Murray is coming off the bench is that he didn't deliver in the olympics, but their guard rotation is stacked with Shai, Dort, Barrett, Brooks, Nembhard, Nickeil, and of course Jamal. Even though I'm missing a bit of punch inside the paint, Edey's 7 feet 4 should be enough against most of the rivals they face. Kelly Ollynyk, Dwight Powell and Trey Lyles should complete a more than decent Center rotation.
Serbia 🇷🇸🃏
Projected lineup:
Vasilije Misic, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Nikola Jovic, Filip Petrusev, Nikola Jokic
Like all the other contenders, this team's strength (other than having Jokic) is depth. Maybe they aren't as deep as other teams, and most of their players are Euroleague rather than NBA, but they've got their star, their leader and basically their everything, surrounded by good shooters like Bogdan or Marko Guduric. And the motivation will be there, since they almost beat USA in the semifinal of the olympics, and were knocked out of the EuroBasket in the round of 16 by an underdog like Finland, and lost to Germany in the last World Cup final... and it goes on and on. So don't sleep on Serbia cause revenge is what they want.
Germany 🇩🇪🏆
Projected lineup:
Dennis Schroder, Andreas Obst, Isaac Bonga, Franz Wagner, Daniel Theis
The reigning champs of the World and Europe know how to put up a fight. Even though their squad isn't as good as others, their chemistry does it for them. Franz is already a star, Mo, Voigtmann, Theimann... are always solid, Bonga is one of the best perimeter defenders in FIBA basketball, Tristan da Silva keeps developing, Obst might as well be the best shooter outside of the NBA, and Theis' pick and roll with Dennis is elite. And then there's Schroder. In the NBA he's like top 150, but when he is wearing a Germany jersey, he becomes a top 5 monster. It wouldn't surprise me if they go back to back.
Tier 2: Pretenders 🎭
They are legit. They are elite. They could lift the cup if the top teams relax for a minute.
Australia 🇦🇺🦘
Projected lineup:
Josh Giddey, Dante Exum, Dyson Daniels, Josh Green, Jock Landale
A really solid team. Their guard rotation is legit. Giddey, Patty, Dyson, Exum... they are all good performers on offense, and some are really good on defense. It's their centers that don't convince me. Jock Landale isn't bad, and Duop Reath can be decent, but they're far from that Wemby-Gobert who is going to dominate. To sum up, the youngsters are going to have to step up and fill the older ones shoes.
Turkey 🇹🇷🌯
Projected lineup:
Shane Larkin, Tarik Biberobic, Cedi Osman, Ercan Osmani, Alperen Sengun
Another team with a star that goes wild on a FIBA court. On the EuroBasket, Sengun went off for 22+10+7+1+1 and 29.3 of PIR to lead them to the 2nd place. Unlike other great teams, their power forwards and centers are very deep and solid: Osman, Osmani, Sengun, Bona, Yurtseven, Sanli... it's world-level rebounding and rim protection, which can make the difference in even games. Also, their guard rotation is nice, with Larkin, Hazer, Sipahi and Korkmaz, but aging. If Alperen is at his best level, they really have a chance at the cup.
Finland 🇫🇮☃️
Projected lineup:
Miro Little, Elias Valtonen, Olivier Nkamhoua, Lauri Markkanen, Mikael Jantunen
Their cinderella run they did last year in the EuroBasket is just a sneak peak of their future: Markkanen (29), Jantunen (26), Valtonen (27), Nkamhoua (26), Little (22), Maxhuni (28), Grandison (28), Gustavson (27) and Muurinen (19) are all under 30 players in the roster that finnished in 4th place. If they end up in some easy group, we could see them in the knockouts... but they will have to deliver far from home too.
Greece 🇬🇷🦖
Projected lineup:
Vasileios Toliopoulos, Tyler Dorsey, Kostas Papanikolau, Giannis Antrtokoumpo, Konstantinos Mitoglu
I don't think I need to explain how good Giannis is, and he is surrounded by good 3 pt shooters: Dorsey (47.4%), Sloukas (44%) Toliopoulos (38.9%), Mitoglu (44.4%) and Larentzakis (42.9%) were great from behind the arc on the EuroBasket. But this team is VERY Giannis-dependant, and there will be players that lock him, so Spanoulis will need a plan B, or they won't go far.
Spain 🇪🇦🫂
Projected lineup:
Sergio de Larrea, Hugo González, Juancho Hernangómez, Santi Aldama, Willy Hernangómez.
This is probably the biggest generational transition in this ranking. Name by name, this team isn't that good, but chemistry has always been great in Spain. The thing, good or bad, is that they're young, with Hugo, Larry, Baba Miller, Aday Mara, Mario Saint-Supery and Álvaro Cárdenas most likely on the squad, and that will be fun to watch, but it's an experiment that could go wrong, or really good. Aldama is ready to be a star in a squad where no one shines too bright, and they are going to make noise.
Lithuania 🇱🇹❄️
Projected lineup:
Rokas Jokubaitis, Kasparas Jakucionis, Matas Buzelis, Azoulas Tubelis, Domantas Sabonis
This Lithuania team is always the same. Their twin towers in Domantas- Valanciunas are top 10 in the World, but their chemistry is below zero. Jokubaitis is doing great and then his knee strikes back. It's a nice roster, but they never deliver. Now they added Kasper and Matas, which is exciting. So far, Jakucionis has been great (he posted 12 PTS, 10 AST in his national team debut), and Buzelis has had trouble to adapt to FIBA. Shoutout to Tubelis "the right man for the job", who is a silent killer that goes off for 18 and 7 in the World Cup Qualifiers. They know how to put up a fight, and they will try with all they have to not miss the tournament.
Italy 🇮🇹🍕
Projected lineup:
Darius Thompson, Alessandro Pajola, Saliou Niang, Simone Fontecchio, Mouhamet Diouf
This team is a perfect combo of athleticism with all those players born in Africa, Procida and Fontecchio; and old dog mentality with Thompson, Melli or Ricci. Even though they're missing a star, they are the perfect ballance between run-and-gun style and veteran experience. They have to fill a big hole on scoring, assists and rebounds, but they have a lot of potential. Don't sleep on this Italy side.
Tier 3: Underdogs 🐶
Not candidates... on the paper. But no one would like to face them in a single-game knockout.
Slovenia 🇸🇮🎩
Projected lineup:
Aleksej Nikolic, Luka Doncic, Klemen Prepelic, Edo Muric, Jaxon Hayes.
Luka and 4 more. He led the team in points, rebounds, assists, blocks (❓️), steals and efficiency the last EuroBasket. Just having him makes them a tough opponent. He went off for 34.7 PTS (ranked 1st), 7.1 AST (2nd), 8.6 REB (8th), 2. 7 STL (1st) and 36.6 PIR (1st). Surrounding him, the players are mediocre, altough, God knows how, they managed to be 2nd in PPG. In the paint, Hayes gives them a very decent rim protection and athleticism, but you never know how he's going to adapt to FIBAbasketball. If they really want to be big in Qatar, Luka can't be alone.
Poland 🇵🇱💎
Projected lineup:
Andrzej Pluta, Jordan Loyd, Mateusz Ponitka, Jeremy Sochan, Olek Barcelowski
Don't sleep on Poland either. Last year in the EuroBasket, Jordan Loyd carried them to the quarter-finals averaging 22.4 PPG, and Sochan wasn't there. Even though he isn't in the same level as the NBA stars, his 32 point performance vs Slovenia is a masterpiece for a team like his. Outside of that, Pluta dished 3.7 assists per game. Pontika had 18 PPG. Olek shot 72% from 2. In general, it's a dangerous team, not likely that they're going all the way, but they could make one of the contenders drop an important win.
Latvia 🇦🇹🎯
Projected lineup:
Arturs Zagars, Rihards Lomazs, Davis Bertans, Rolands Smits, Kristaps Porzingis
After a great performance in the Philippines World Cup, but since then they have been going like Luis Henrique, downhill and without a break (ifykyk). They choked at home in the Olympic Qualifiers, and then choked again at home in the EuroBasket. So to this point they've just proven they're good at choking at home. On a more positive note, Kristaps posted 20+9+2 blocks on "just" 27 minutes, so he could play well with less risk of injuries. Lomazs had 6 assists per game, which is quite good too. In general, their 2-pt percentage was quite good for most of them. They ranked 4th in less turnovers. The point is, they will have to learn how to perform when they aren't the underdogs
Dominican Republic 🇩🇴🐈
Projected lineup:
Andrés Feliz, Jean Montero, Lester Quiñones, Tyson Pérez, Karl-Anthony Towns
NBA fans probably won't consider this a great squad, but the truth is KAT isn't alone. Their guard rotation is really solid, maybe even better than other higher ranked teams: Montero just had a breakout season posting 14 PTS and 5 AST, and David Jones-García was averaging 25.5 points in the G-League, while Quiñones had 23.3. It's the center position what is pulling them back, with Joel Soriano as the backup for Karl and Tyson Pérez (7.6 and 6.1 in 17 mins in the spanish league) as the starting PF. It wouldn't surprise me if they played 4 of their guards together like Montero, Jones-García, Chris Duarte, Quiñones and Towns, and it wouldn't surprise me if they upset one of the contenders or pretenders.
Israel 🇮🇱🕎
Projected lineup:
Tamir Blatt, Khadeen Carrington, Deni Avdija, Roman Sorkin, Tomer Ginat
Its a solid team. In the last EuroBasket, Deni went off for 24 ppg, including 34 against Slovenia in the group fase, and they finnished 3-2 in the toughest group, even beating France by 13 points. They will most likely be playing small ball with Ginat as the 5, but Yam Madar could enter the starting 5 for Blatt or Carrington, since he is a very intelligent player, who ranked 6th in assists (6.3) and 1st in steals (2.7). Even though their shooting could be better and they are in a tricky situation in the Qualifiers, they got potential.
Croatia 🇭🇷🥊
Projected lineup:
Jaleen Smith, Mario Hezonja, Michael Ruzic, Dario Saric, Ivica Zubac
This team is elite name by name. Their numbers on the Qualifiers are: Hezonja 19+8+5, Saric 18+9+4 and Zubac 21+1. They are being great. But in the Olympic Qualifiers 2 years ago Zubac and Saric punched each other, which obviously isn't a high level of chemistry. That apart, they have a talented, tall team and they will compete in every game if they put their diferences aside and play like the profesionals they are.
Argentina 🇦🇷🌅
Projected lineup:
Facundo Campazzo, Gonzalo Corbalán, Gabriel Deck, Leandro Bolmaro, Juan Fernández
Solid team, but aging. After missing on the 23 World Cup, they have already granted their pressence, but in a year, the team will be quite old. By 2027 Nico Brussino (34), Deck (32), Facu (36), Nico Laprovittola (37) and Luca Vildoza (32) will be over 30, some very old. The season in Europe is long and has many games, and the Cup is nonstop, so injuries might strike. They aren't specially physical either, so they will have to get advantage of their smart players (Campazzo, Vildoza, Lapro...) if they want to be competitive.
Brazil 🇧🇷📉
Projected lineup:
Yago dos Santos, Alexey Borges, Marcio Santos, Gui Santos, Bruno Caboclo
The reigning champs of America. Brazil has never missed a World Cup. But this team isn't exciting. Dos Santos' stint in Europe came to an end really early, Caboclo hasn't been playing big minutes since he left Venezia. Marcio wasn't very good with Maccabi last year. Gui plays very little with the Warriors. Most of the players are in their local league. I'm sure they can surprise me, but I honestly don't see them through the group fase. The good thing for them is that they rank high because they play in America, so they'll get an easier group.
Tier 4: Watch out 👀
Not superteams at all, but they could surprise you
Ukraine 🇺🇦♠️
Projected lineup:
Oleksandr Kovilar, Svi Mykhailiuk, Ivan Tkachenko, Oleksandr Lypovyy, Artem Pustovyi
This team isn't bad. Svi is a different guy when he plays for Ukraine. At the moment of writing this, he leads the European World Cup Qualifiers in ppg, with 29, and is also posting 30.5 PIR. The rest, I'll be honest, I didn't know most of them. I know Pustovyi can be a great presence in the paint (7'1"), andthat they beat Georgia and Denmark twice, so they aren't bad.
Portugal 🇵🇹🌊
Travante Williams, Diogo Brito, Vladyslav Voytso, Candido Sa, Neemias Queta.
Last year in the EuroBasket they were close to knocking Germany, the eventual champs, out in the round of 16. But the truth is Queta carried them with 15+8+2 blocks. In general, they have o improve that 3 pt shot (just 24.7% in the EuroBasket) if they want a shot at the knockouts.
Puerto Rico 🇵🇷🐰
Projected lineup:
Jezreel de Jesús, José Alvarado, Chris Ortiz, Enrique Freeman, George Conditt IV.
This team has got some potential. They got into the olympics beating a strong team like Lithuania, but at home. Alvarado will have to be at his best (he had 18+5 in the AmeriCup), and Conditt will have to perform like he did last summer (9+8+2 blocks). Enrique Freeman is an elite addition (18+9 in the G-League), and they can make some noise.
Georgia 🇬🇪💪
Projected lineup:
Kamar Baldwin, Duda Sanadze, Sandro Mamukelashvili, Tornike Shengelia, Goga Bitzade.
Good starting 5. Elite rebounding. Toko just vroke teh record of most points in a Qualifiers game. But they will have to sort out some things if they want to advance to the World Cup.
Sweden 🇸🇪🔫
Projected lineup:
Ludvig Hakason, Melwin Pantzar, Bobi Klintman, Pelle Larsson, Simon Birgander.
Their starting 5 is strong. Birgander (7+5), Ludde (8 pts with 41% from deep) and Pantzar (11+4+4 with 43% from behind the arc) have been really solid in the Spanish league, and Larsson and Klintman played in the NBA. In the EuroBasket they managed to be in the knockouts, even though they had 1 win and 4 losses, which is not good, but the talent is there.
Bahamas 🇧🇸🏴☠️
Projected lineup:
Domnick Bridgewater, Buddy Hield, VJ Edgecombe, Isaiah Mobley, DeAndre Ayton
Name by name, they sound exciting. But I watched them live a few years ago, and it was a Buddy-shoots-100-threes shitshow. And their depth is uh... it is not deep. But we all can agree that they're talented. Other than the NBAs, Bridgewater was the top scorer of the AmeriCup (21), and Mobley had 17+8 with Delaware in the G-League. So the potential is there.
Senegal 🇸🇳🌠
Projected lineup:
Brancou Badio, Jean Jacques Boissy, Mbaye Ndiaye, Mustapha Diop, Ibrahima Faye.
It's for me the best team in Africa. 3d in last year's AfroBasket, their athleticism is elite, most of the squad is over 6'7", with Tacko Fall at 7'6". Then Brancou Badio has been averaging 20+6 assists in the Qualifiers. They could surprise us.
Japan 🇯🇵🐜
Projected lineup:
Yuki Kawamura, Hirotaka Yoshii, Yuta Watanabe, Rui Hachimura, Josh Hawkinson.
The first Asiatic team on this ranking. In the Olympics, they did a decent job, even though they went 0-3. They forced OT against the eventual silver medal France. Yuki was incredible, with 20.3 points and 7.7 assists. Rui had 22+7, and Hawkinson had 18+10 on 9/12 from three. But 78 out of their 83 ppg came from their starting 5, so they really lack depth, and short rotations don't get you anywhere.
South Sudan 🇸🇸✊️
Projected lineup:
Carlik Jones, Marial Shayok, Nuni Omot, Wenyen Gabriel, Khaman Maluach.
The youngest country in the world (they got independent from Sudan in 2014), and the #1 African team in the FIBA ranking. They surprised the basketball world 3 years ago by qualifying for the olympics, but now they could miss the World Cup because their stars don't play the Qualifiers. Carlik is a star in European basketball, and averaged 18+ 8 assists in the Olympics. Maluach will come off his second year and will provide even more to the already elite rebounding and rim protection Gabriel and JT Thor already granted. Nuni and Bul Kuol combined for 3.7 steals per game, so their perimeter defense is also good. And then of course they are very athletic. A very solid team
Angola 🇦🇴🌇
Projected lineup:
Childe Dundao, Selton Miguel, Kevin Kokila, Bruno Fernando, Jilson Bango
The champs of Africa. Bango and Fernando are a very good pair of centers, and Dundao was great with 16+6 ast in the AfroBasket. Kokila just signed for a Euroleague powerhouse like Dubai. They for sure can make noise.