The Indiana Pacers far exceeded expectations this year and now they have good problems.
The good problem is the bill for success is coming due. It’s a good problem that your budding all star made all-pro, but now he’s getting $7.1 million more next year and more in future years.
It’s a good problem that you traded a minimal amount for Pascal Siakam, but now you have to pay him a hefty contract to keep him. I don’t know if the Pacers will do the max contract, but rather a contract just below the bird rights max and above what other teams can offer. I’d prefer a $40, $43, $46, $49, $52 (millions) five-year deal. Total of $230 million. No other team can put that on the table and few states can beat Indiana taxes, so it’s the happy medium of what both sides will want.
It’s good that the Suns matched the Ayton deal and the Pacers have Turner who works well beside Siakam, but he’s heading into the last year of his contract and needs an extension. I’ll bet the Pacers do what they did last time, give Turner a raise this offseason that cuts into the total of future years. Say Turner is viewed as a $30 million per year Center. Give him a $3 million raise for next season, up to nearly $23 million, then put on two more years at $28.5 million a piece.
Lastly, Nembhard is on too cheap of a deal for him to not hold out if he doesn’t see more money. Pacers have him at $4.1 million over the next two years. I’d happily give him an extra year above the MLE, at $14 million, but infuse that into the current contract. Make it $6 million per year over the next three years. Reasonable for both sides.
Also, Jalen Smith opts out of the last year of his contract at $5.4 million, freeing up that money and signing elsewhere for a bit more with more minutes available.
All of these moves leave the Pacers at just $14.5 million below the luxury tax line. This brings us to the biggest question of the offseason after maintaining this team’s core — Will Herb Simon be willing to pay the luxury tax?
Let me answer that. No.
One thing to always know about Simon is that he views the Pacers first as an investment, and his passion for winning is somewhere down the list below that. He is happiest when he is making the most money he can off this team, which means not paying the tax and being competitive. That’s where they are, and that’s where they’re going to be. Sorry to the fans hopeful for a big move that makes them true title contenders.
With $14.5 million to play with, I see them filling three more roster spots to bring the total count to 14.
Trade up into the back of the first round with a high priced team. Most teams above the tax line would rather take multiple shots at 2nd round non-guaranteed contract players than one guaranteed 1st round contract.
Sign one player at a vet minimum.
Gordon Hayward.
Yep, it is time and the stars are aligning for the Butler faithful. Hayward and the Pacers are now a strong match this offseason. For the Pacers, they can’t really afford Toppin’s market value after the solid year he’s had (great sign and trade candidate for a 2nd rounder) but Hayward’s current value, I wouldn’t doubt a 2-year $20 million total contract gets it done. Hayward gets to control the final chapter of his career in his home market, on a playoff contender, serving as a veteran who could push for starter minutes or even the starting SF role if there’s enough gas in the tank. The Pacers get the role player they’re looking for in a flex Forward who shoots the ball well, good in transition, and provides eager to win veteran leadership for a young team. Again, best-case scenario is Hayward’s length and shooting makes him the starting SF with Nesmith as a defensive specialist and strong 2nd unit player.
Pacers lineups
1st unit - Turner, Siakam, Hayward, Mathurin, Haliburton
2nd unit - Jackson, Walker, Nesmith, Nembhard, McConnell