Houston Rockets (#2) Vs Golden State Warriors (#7)
Introduction: Stephen Curry, Steve Kerr, and Draymond Green are set to face off against a familiar opponent in the Houston Rockets—an organisation they've had numerous intense battles with over the years. The Warriors ' history with Houston is rich with drama from the clashes with James Harden, Mike D'Antoni, Chris Paul, Clint Capela, Dwight Howard, and Eric Gordon. Fast forward to today, and the Rockets have transformed into a team that’s exceeded expectations by leaps and bounds. The Warriors also know this new-look Rockets team well. Ime Udoka, Dillon Brooks, Steven Adams, and Fred VanVleet bring a wealth of experience to this series, each having played pivotal roles in past meaningful series. This season for the Warriors has felt like two distinct journeys. To put it bluntly, Jimmy Butler saved this season. The Warriors finished the regular season as the 7th seed, with a 23-8 record since Butler’s arrival. An intense play-in battle with the Memphis Grizzlies secured a spot in the postseason, setting up a rematch with a familiar rival, this time with fresh faces on the court.
Season Matchups: The Warriors and Rockets met five times during the regular season. Before the in-season tournament, Golden State had won 15 straight matchups against Houston. But the real story is the 1-1 record with Butler in the lineup. The Warriors won a hard-fought game on February 13, but the April 6 matchup is a major red flag for Golden State. In that game, Curry was limited to just 3 points on 1-of-10 shooting, with Amen Thompson and Dillon Brooks playing key roles in frustrating him. This performance raises concerns about how the Rockets' defense could stifle Curry, and by extension, the Warriors.
Defensive Dominance: Ime Udoka, a Coach of the Year candidate, has his young squad playing a physical, tough brand of defense. The Rockets’ use of length and aggression has propelled them to the fourth-best defense in the NBA (110.8 points allowed per 100 possessions, excluding garbage time). They’ve also been exceptional in half-court defense, allowing just 94.9 points per 100 half-court possessions—good for 4th in the league. This defensive setup will present significant challenges for Golden State, particularly their offensive rhythm.
In the final 31 games of the season with Butler in tow, the Warriors have been: • Seventh in offense (119.4 points per 100 possessions) • Thirteenth in half-court offense (100.3 points per 100 half-court possessions) • First in defense (109.9 points allowed per 100 possessions) • Fifth in half-court defense (95.0 points allowed per 100 half-court possessions) • Third in point differential (plus-9.5)
Our starting 5 has been really stable since the inauguration of the group (Curry, Podziemski, Moody, Butler, Green) • Scored 120.3 points per 100 possessions. • Allowed 103.1 points per 100 possessions. • Has outscored opponents by nearly 18 points per 100 possessions.
Relevant regular season team stats Stat Warriors Rockets
Offensive Rating 114.9 (17th) 116.3 (12th) Half-Court Offensive Rating 97.3 (20th) 93.2 (22nd) Defensive Rating 111.9 (7th) 110.8 (4th) Half-Court Defensive Rating 96.0 (8th) 94.9 (4th) Effective Field-Goal Percentage 53.8% (20th) 52.6% (24th) Pace 99.37 (17th) 99.03 (18th) Assist Percentage 71.4% (1st) 54.9% (30th) Turnover Percentage 14.3% (16th) 13.8% (8th) Free-Throw Attempts Per 100 Possessions 22.3 (12th) 22.8 (7th) Free-Throw Percentage 76.4% (25th) 73.8% (30th) Three-Point-Attempt Rate 46.9% (2nd) 38.4% (27th) Three-Point Percentage 36.4% (16th) 35.3% (21st) Offensive Rebound Percentage 29.9% (7th) 35.4% (1st)
A key question heading into the series is: who comes off the bench for the Warriors? We know what to expect from Houston—they’ll likely stick with the same 8- or 9-man rotation that’s gotten them this far: VanVleet, Green, Brooks, Thompson, and Sengun as starters, with Eason, Jabari Smith Jr., Steven Adams, and potentially Aaron Holiday filling out the bench. For Golden State, it’s less clear. Gary Payton II is a lock for playoff minutes, but the rotation is in flux beyond him. Jonathon Kuminga, for example, was phased out in the regular season finale and didn’t play in the play-in game. Could he still have a role? I think Steve Kerr should use Game 1 as a feel-out opportunity—give Kuminga meaningful minutes and see if he can contribute to the non-Butler stretches. His athleticism could be helpful against Houston’s young wings. Gui Santos and Quentin Post offer interesting wrinkles offensively. Post is a legit floor spacer at 7 feet tall, capable of knocking down threes and dragging defenders out of the paint. Santos brings the energy and hustle that Warriors fans love—he crashes the glass, connects plays, and actively looks for Steph on his off-ball relocations. Then there’s Buddy Hield. Known for his streaky shooting and not much else, he’ll be a critical zone breaker in this series. The Rockets will throw different defensive looks, and Hield needs to hit shots to punish those schemes and create spacing for Steph and the core. Hield infuriates me and will continue to do so as long as he is here. Finally, Kevon Looney. Does he get a significant run to combat Steven Adams on the glass? Adams brings physicality, IQ, and elite rebounding… something the Warriors can’t afford to overlook. Looney may not be what he was a few years ago, but his positioning and toughness could be vital in key stretches, especially when the game slows down.
Keys to the Series – Warriors:
Limit turnovers: Controlling the ball will reduce transition opportunities for the Rockets and allow Golden State to dictate the pace.
Lean on the uncs: Running the offense through our established trio ensures stability and consistent scoring.
Capitalise on open looks: With defensive attention on the stars, role players, specifically Moody, Podziemski, and Post, must convert uncontested shots to punish defensive lapses.
Keys to the Series – Rockets:
Maintain composure: Ignoring Draymond Green’s emotional tactics will be crucial for maintaining focus and avoiding unnecessary fouls or technicals.
Win the rebounding battle: Dominating the glass, especially on the offensive end, will create second-chance opportunities and slow the Warriors’ tempo. This lets the rockets play their own game.
Execute in the half-court: Consistent production in structured sets is essential, especially when transition opportunities are limited.
Player Focus: Amen Thompson vs. Stephen Curry:
Amen Thompson, a 6'7" defensive force with elite athleticism and Defensive Player of the Year potential, displayed in the last matchup that he might have the physical tools to challenge Curry in ways few can. His length, lateral quickness, and ability to fight through screens make him well-equipped to disrupt Curry’s off-ball movement and limit his clean looks. While no one can completely shut down Steph, Amen’s presence gives Houston a real chance to make things difficult for him across the series. Series Prediction: I’m not the most positive fan, I’ve been told. But I do think the Warriors possess a significant advantage regarding playoff experience, team chemistry, and recent momentum, which positions them favourably against the youthful and untested Rockets.
With a clear edge in top-tier talent, including the two best players in the series and a somewhat reliable supporting cast, I project the Warriors to win the series in six games.
"If you have any questions or thoughts based on what I’ve said—or if there’s something I missed—feel free to share!"