This past season was the 10th and last edition of the 4 team college football playoff. Starting next season, we will now see 12 teams in the college football playoff. I'm going to look at who would've made a 12 team CFP for the past 10 years (outside of COVID year cuz that was weird) to try and find trends and predict who will make it next year. I've divided every team that would've made the CFP into 3 categories (Bye/Conference Champ/At Large) and then sorted them by conference and record.
Format
The top 7 conference champions will receive automatic bids to the CFP
The next 5 at large teams make up the final 6 spots
The top 4 tea,s will receive an automatic bye to the quarterfinals
The first round matchups will be as follows: 12 @ 5, 11 @ 6, 10 @ 7, and 9 @ 8
The quarterfinals will be 1 vs 8/9, 2 vs 7/10, 3 v 6/11, and 4 v 5/12
The semifinals will be 1/8/9 vs 4/5/12 and 2/7/10 vs 3/6/11 with the winners of each game advancing to the final
The quarterfinals and semifinals will take the place of the old NY6 bowl games (Fiesta, Peach, Rose, Sugar, Cotton, and Orange)
For example, the 2023/24 CFP would've been the following (IMO):
First Round:
12 Liberty (5th autobid - C-USA) @ 5 FSU (1st at large)
11 Ole Miss (7th at large) @ 6 Georgia (2nd at large)
10 Penn State (6th at large) @ 7 Ohio State (3rd at large)
9 Missouri (5th at large) @ 8 Oregon (4th at large)
Quarterfinals:
1 Michigan (1st autobid - Big 10) vs Oregon
2 Washington (2nd autobid - Pac 12) vs Ohio State
3 Texas (3rd autobid - Big 12) vs Georgia
4 Alabama (4th autobid - SEC) vs FSU
Semifinals:
1 Michigan vs 4 Alabama
2 Washington vs 6 Georgia
Final:
1 Michigan vs 6 Georgia
Byes
4 - 13-0 ACC
4 - 13-0 SEC
3 - 13-0 BIG 10
1 - 13-0 AAC
1 - 13-0 PAC
5 - 12-1 SEC
5 - 12-1 BIG 12
4 - 12-1 BIG 10
2 - 12-1 PAC 12
2 - 12-1 ACC
2 - 11-2 BIG 10
1- 11-2 BIG 12
1 - 11-2 ACC
1 - 10-3 PAC 12
Trends:
Only once would a 3 loss team have gotten a bye, that being Utah in 2022 as TCU, Ohio State, Alabama, and Tennessee who were all ranked above them failed to win their conference.
The only time that a Group of 5 team would've gotten a bye was 2021 Cincinnati.
Takeaways:
These byes will almost always be going to the SEC, BIG 10, BIG 12, and ACC champions with the PAC 12 essentially dead. Almost all of these champions will end up with at most 2 losses.
Conference Champions
2 - 13-0 AAC
1 - 13-0 C-USA
1 - 13-0 ACC
1 - 13-0 C-USA
2 - 12-1 AAC
1 - 12-1 BIG 12
3 - 11-2 PAC 12
1 - 11-2 MWC
1 - 11-2 BIG 12
1 - 11-2 ACC
1 - 11-2 AAC
2 - 10-3 PAC 12
1 - 10-3 BIG 12
Trends:
For the most part, these spots go to 2 loss teams.
The AAC dominate this list in terms of Group of 5 teams, with C-USA and MWC also getting teams
Takeaways:
The death of the PAC 12 complicates things a bit. Oregon State and Washington State are technically still in the conference but they are playing a MWC schedule, sort of like Notre Dame with the ACC. They aren't eligible for an autobid, so there will be 1 Group of 5 team that makes it. Most likely, one of those would be the champion of the AAC, but they did recently lose UCF, Cincinnati, and Houston to the BIG 12, so we'll see how that affects things.
At Large
1 - 12-0 Independent
2 - 12-1 BIG 10
2 - 12-1 SEC
1 - 12-1 PAC 12
4 - 11-1 BIG 10
1 - 11-1 SEC
1 - 11-1 Independent
3 - 11-2 BIG 12
3 - 11-2 PAC 12
2 - 11-2 SEC
1 - 11-2 ACC
9 - 10-2 BIG 10
7 - 10-2 SEC
2 - 10-2 ACC
1 - 10-2 Independent
1 - 10-2 PAC 12
2 - 10-3 PAC 12
2 - 10-3 BIG 10
1 - 10-3 BIG 12
1 - 10-3 SEC
3 - 9-3 SEC
1 - 9-3 BIG 12
1 - 9-3 PAC 12
1 - 9-3 ACC
1 - 9-3 BIG 10
The worst teams that would've gotten in would be 9-3 teams, and outside of the SEC, no conference would've had multiple 9 win teams make it.
The exact distribution by conference is: 18 BIG 10, 16 SEC, 8 PAC 12, 5 BIG 12, 4 ACC, 3 Independent. This means that BIG 10 and SEC would usually end up with about 3 total teams in the CFP, with the remaining 3 at large spots usually going to some mix of PAC 12, BIG 12, ACC, and Notre Dame.
Because Notre Dame aren't in a conference, they cannot get a bye even if they go undefeated. That exact scenario would've happened in 2018 when they went 12-0.
Takeaways:
We're usually going to end up seeing 3 BIG 10 and SEC teams in the CFP. Many of the PAC 12's teams have moved to other conferences so their at large spots will be absorbed, meaning we very will could see 4 BIG 10 or SEC teams, as well as 3 ACC or BIG 12 teams. Notre Dame will always be in conversations for this spot until they find a conference.
Way Too Early Prediction
Using these trends that I've mentioned, here are my way-too-early predictions for the 2024/25 CFB season
Georgia (1st Autobid - SEC)
Oregon (2nd Autobid - BIG 10)
FSU (3rd Autobid - ACC)
Kansas State (4th Autobid - BIG 12)
Texas (1st At Large)
Ohio State (2nd At Large)
Michigan (3rd At Large)
Alabama (4th At Large)
Ole Miss (5th At Large)
Penn State (6th At Large)
Notre Dame (7th At Large)
Liberty (5th Autobid - Conference USA)
First Round:
12 Liberty @ 5 Texas
11 Notre Dame @ 6 Ohio State
10 Penn State @ 7 Michigan
9 Ole Miss @ 8 Alabama
Quarterfinals:
8 Alabama vs 1 Georgia
7 Michigan vs 2 Oregon
6 Ohio State vs 3 FSU
5 Texas vs 4 Kansas State
Semifinals:
5 Texas vs 1 Georgia
6 Ohio State vs 2 Oregon
National Championship Game:
6 Ohio State vs 1 Georgia