WARNING: These predictions were made before Week Zero
Welcome to the Big 12 where there is a leading man, but it is a rotational door for the conference champion. Since 2021, there has been a different Big 12 champion. 2021 was Baylor (beat Oklahoma State), 2022 was Kansas State (beat CFP runner ups TCU), 2023 was Texas (beat Oklahoma State), 2024 was Arizona State (beat Iowa State), and 2025 was Texas Tech (beat BYU). Not only is it a different champion, but different matchups from the previous seasons. It is a weird era of Big 12 football (sponsored by Monster Energy) that there is an obvious frontrunner heading into the season with Texas Tech, but it isn't a clear cut favorite and it is mostly a four way race at the moment with enough room for someone like West Virginia to have a Arizona State or TCU moment. Eventually, a team will stand out and control the conference for years to come, whether it starts this year or not is yet to be seen.
1. Houston (CFP)
Houston is bringing back most of their starters and bringing in a new RB to replace Dean Connors with RB Makhi Hughes who Fritz recruited to Tulane and went on to have an outstanding career for the Green Wave then transferred to Oregon and was RB4 is now reunited with Fritz at Houston after two seasons separated. Either way, they are a really stacked team this year and will be hard to beat.
2. Utah
You lose a good chunk of your players, staff, and your HC but you elevate your DC to HC and keep your QB and RB, it's usually a 50/50 but I think the Utes will be just fine. 8 starters back, but able to retain QB Devon Dampier and RB Wayshawn Parker and HC Morgan Scalley's ability to get the best out of his defensive players is what I am banking on for them to make the Big 12 Championship Game.
3. BYU
Tiebreaker with the Utes win at home is the reason why I have BYU missing the Big 12 Championship. They are getting older, they have QB Bear Bachmeier back for a sophomore year, RB LJ Martin is preparing to build upon his draft stock this year. If the CFP adds two Big 12 schools, BYU should be at the top of the list this season.
4. Texas Tech
It has nothing to do with their QB saga even though they just recently signed Tommy Castellanos, it has everything to do with focusing heavily on transfers and not as much on homegrown talent, though they have a few. They succeeded last year constructing one of the best front sevens in the country, and are now doing it again by getting Edges Adam Trick (Miami (OH)), Jamond Mathis (Kent State), and Trey White (San Diego State) and DT Julien Laventure (Akron). Eventually, cracks will show and will crumble if there is no contingency plan.
5. Kansas State
Not only do I like HC and former QB and OC Collin Klein, but he already has experienced weapons to work with in QB Avery Johnson and RB Joe Jackson. He has a team that is able to just enough get them back into relevancy, but not enough to put them in the Big 12 title conversation just yet.
6. Oklahoma State
Going from 1-11 to top 6 in the Big 12, HC Eric Morris in his first season will have his North Texas squad in Oklahoma State competing right away. What will hold the Cowboys back the most will be OL as they have a pocket passer in QB Drew Mestemaker and they will struggle to establish the run against Oregon, Texas Tech, and other teams with a deep edge room.
7. Arizona
They will fall to right in the middle just because everyone else around them started to improve and they will still be the same level they were last season. It's a HC Brent Brennan specialty and why he never won more than 7 games at San Jose State.
8. UCF
Speaking of improving, UCF sure did improve with QB Alonza Barnett at the forefront. HC Scott Frost, in his second stint, has an underrated team that could shock people and be much higher than I have them.
9. West Virginia
Rich Rod at it again. RB Cam Cook was a second team All American for a reason and HC Rich Rodriguez replace Jaheim White for the Jacksonville State transfer. Not only that, but I have high hopes for QB Michael Hawkins after Oklahoma not working out for him. He also has DC Zac Alley in year two and he always has had a positive sign in his other DC positions.
10. Arizona State
Just missing a bowl game will be Arizona State, who I have in a slight decline year after year after losing Cam Skattebo last year and now losing Sam Leavitt and Jordyn Tyson, which the Sun Devils will realize were the heartbeat of the team. HC Kenny Dillingham is trying to do it again by bringing in a Leavitt like QB who struggled all season as a starter for a team not good enough for a bowl game, which is QB Cutter Boley. Yes, it happened once, but I think fans and staff are banking on Dillingham being this generational HC when in reality he is middle of the pact when he doesn't have players that carry him.
11. TCU
Present day Corey coming in to change my description of TCU. It was going to hint about the brawl, but that situation seems to be something monumental and potentially career altering for Sonny Dykes. If you don't know, a S and a WR got into it in practice and apparently got into a fight that had the cops called on the S. That is where we thought it left off, but the records show that the WR was hospitalized with injuries that caused a brain bleed and the S was charged with aggravated assault. Locker room fights are normal, getting cops involved are not. Now, we will have to just sit and wait to find out what comes out of it. I did have TCU at 7, but this will effect the team and may get Dykes suspended or fired depending on the investigation, so therefore I moved them to 11.
12. Colorado
I expect an improvement, but not enough to make a bowl game. Julien Lewis is going to be fantastic as the QB1 for the Buffaloes, but will still have the same OL issues and the run game is going to kill them. The defense is going to be improved as I am a Chris Marve believer, but offense will be the main concern.
13. Baylor
If QB DJ Lagway could had went somewhere where he had no pressure to succeed in, had a good offensive minded coach around him, and a good OC, then we will see a totally different Lagway. He has a good OC, probably one of the best in the Big 12, but he has a defensive minded HC Dave Aranda that is basically at one loss and you are gone territory. This is not healthy for Lagway and at this point, he did it to himself.
14. Cincinnati
What else can you say? HC Scott Satterfield isn't as strong of a HC as anticipated and will just have the Bearcats on a downward spiral this season. The good part is that they may do so bad that they fire Satterfield and re-hire Luke Fickell, if he can go back to the spread option rather than the air raid then he will win 10 games in the Big 12.
15. Kansas
Back in 2022 and 2023, we saw the high of the highs in Kansas football, but now that disappeared. It appears that the magic dust HC Lance Leipold had has ran out and we are now watching the Jayhawks slowly return to their normal position.
16. Iowa State
This sucks for Cyclone fans, not only does Indiana overshadow you with them now known has the historic dumpster fire turned Cinderella story, but you are now looking at the return of being a dumpster fire. It's a really sucky position, but I am hoping this leads to a turnaround in 2027.
All Big 12 First Team
QB - Connor Weigman, Houston
RB - LJ Martin, BYU
RB - Wayshawn Parker, Utah
WR - Danny Scudero, Colorado
WR - Amare Thomas, Houston
WR - Wyatt Young, Oklahoma State
TE - Terrance Carter, Texas Tech
C - Sheridan Wilson, Texas Tech
G - Alexander Doost, Arizona
G - Amare Grayson, West Virginia
T - John Pastore, Kansas State
T - Jacob Ponton, Texas Tech
DE - Wendell Gregory, Kansas State
DT - AJ Holmes, Texas Tech
DT - Hosea Wheeler, Baylor
DE - Lance Holtzclaw, Utah
LB - Sione Fotu, Houston
LB - Trey Lathan, Kansas
LB - Ben Roberts, Texas Tech
LB - Ben Uluave, BYU
CB - Will James, Houston
CB - Evan Johnson, BYU
S - Christian Bodnar, Oklahoma State
S - Jamel Johnson, TCU
K - Stone Harrington, Texas Tech
P - Max Fletcher, Cincinnati
LS - Eli Stein, Cincinnati
KR - J'Koby Williams, Texas Tech
PR - Mana Carvalho, Utah
Offensive Player of the Year - Connor Weigman, QB, Houston
Defensive Player of the Year - Ben Roberts, LB, Texas Tech
Coach of the Year - Willie Fritz, Houston