Breaking Down the QB Market
This offseason will see many teams look to improve at quarterback as the position continues to become more and more talented. The QB position has drastically imporved over the years to the point where very solid NFL QBs who could be MVPs a few decades ago are losing their starting jobs. Every team just wants to get their franchise guy and it seems like if your not that, your not enough. Even if your a very solid top 20-30 NFL QB, you could very well end up losing your job. So let’s look at who the best QBs on the market, whether that be through free agency, trades, or the draft, are and which teams should target them.
First, Let’s rate teams by their need at the position. We’ll rate them on a 1-5 scale:
5 - You have your franchise QB for the next 5-10 Years
4 - You have an above average QB
3 - You have a top 20-30 QB but have a chance to improve or you have a young, unproven starter
2 - You don’t have a starting caliber QB
1 - You need a QB ASAP
5: Bills, Bengals, Jaguars, Chiefs, Chargers, Eagles, Bears
4: Dolphins, Browns, Cowboys, Packers, Vikings, Cardinals
3: Patriots, Broncos, Raiders, Lions, Steelers, Falcons, 49ers, Rams, Titans
2: Jets, Saints, Commanders
1: Texans, Colts, Ravens, Panthers, Seahawks, Buccaneers, Giants
Note: If Player is in FA, he’s not considered a part of that team’s QB Room. For example, Lamar is not considered the QB of the Ravens until he resigns so that explains their low ranking.
So by our check, there are 7 teams that absolutely need a QB, 3 that should probably try and get one, and 9 more that might make a move if they find a guy they’re very high on for a fair price. That is 19 teams that could make a move this offseason. This will be a fun offseason for QBs.
The Draft:
There are 4 QBs who will likely hear their name called on Day 1 of the NFL Draft. 2 of these guys will liekly be picks 1 and 2, one will go later in the top 10, and the final guy would be very suprised if he fell outside of the top 20. All 4 of these guys have very high ceilings and have the potential to alter a franchise’s future. Let’s talk about these guys and their potential landing spots.
Bryce Young - Alabama
Bryce Young seemed like a lock to go #1 to the Texans but all of a sudden due to a Hail Mary and a 2 Point Conversion, the Texans don’t own the #1 Overall Pick. The Bears now have it but htey don’t need a QB. Now, all of these QB needy teams are going to have a “bidding war” to see who wants Bryce the most. There are many QB needy teams that will want the former Heisman winning QB who could end up changing their franchise’s future. It will be intersting to see which teams trades for him and how much they give up for him.
Best Fits: Panthers, Texans, Colts
CJ Stroud - Ohio State
CJ Strou dwill likely end up going #2 to the Texans unless they trade up to get Bryce Young. He played great at Ohio State, finsihing as a Heisman finalist in back to back years. He led Ohio State to back to back 2 loss seasons and played very well top to bottom. He’s definitely not a bad consolation prize for whichever teams gets that second team that misses out on Bryce.
Best Fits: Texans, Panthers, Colts
Will Levis - Kentucky
Levis struggled in his final year at Kentucky but very likely will en dup going top 10 strictly on potential. He balled out in previous years and it seemed early on that he might put together a Heisman season but things took a turn for the worse as he struggled against SEC defenses commiting many turnovers. I’m not sure how his game will translate to the NFL level, but it seems that many teams believe they can juice out all his potential so it should be interesting to see which team decides to pull the trigger and take him.
Best Fits: Raiders, Panthers, Colts
Anthony Richardson - Florida
RIchardson may be the most intriguing prospect of the draft class. He played horribly in his final year at Florida yet still, there are rumors that he may go top 10. He seems like a lock to go in the first round. Why is this? His physical attributes. He’s a strong physical runner with a ton of talent. He has the things you can’t teach and teams are teaching they can teach him the stuff that you can. Teams believe that he may be the next Josh Allen, raw but talented. It should be interesting to see which front office decides that they can fix him up.
Best Fits: Buccaneers, Commanders, Lions
There are also a few dark horse QB prospects who may end up starting someday, but likely not this year. You have Tanner McKee out of Stanford who will liekly be a 2nd round pick. And then there’s Hendon Hooker, who balled out and seemed like he might just be a first round pick, but suffered an injury which will make teams shy away. He’s talented and smart, but also old and hurt which will kill his draft stock.
Free Agency:
Many teams will lose their starting QB to free agency this year, including the Ravens, Seahawks, Giants, and Buccaneers. There a few big free agent QBs who I want to go into.
Lamar Jackson - Ravens
Lamar is the prize free agent that almost every team wants if he doesn’t get a contract done with the Ravens. He’s teh greatest rushing quarterback ever, but has dealt with injuries over the past couple of seasons. He has an MVP to his name and is a top 10 QB when on the field. If no long term contract is reached, he will likely be franchise tagged by the Ravens, but if he’s uncontent with that, we could see him in a different uniform next year.
Best Fits: Ravens, Giants, Falcons
Geno Smith - Seahawks
Geno Smith enjoyed a career year this year with Seattle, leading them to the playoffs when no one thought they’d make it. He was one of the best statistical passers. His contractis up but we’re still not sure how much his amrket value will be. Will teams think about how he struggled in previous years or just focus on a one year sample? How much money will Seattle be willing to give him, especially considering that they may have a chance at Bryce Young or CJ Stroud thanks to the Denver Broncos. Geno is one of the most interesting QB Free Agents and it will be very intersting to see where he goes.
Best Fits: Seahawks, Giants, Buccaneers
Tom Brady - Buccaneers
If the GOAT decides he still wants to keep playing, he very well might do it in a new uniform. The Buccaneers offense looked out of sync for most of the season and Brady finally showed signs of age. The market might not be very big and he’ll likely end up on a team that has enough pieces around him to win ASAP. The only way he likely runs it back with the Buccaneers is if they make a deep playoff run so we will likely see the GOAT in his 3rd NFL uniform.
Best Fits: Raiders, Commanders, Buccaneers
Daniel Jones - Giants
Daniel Jones may not be on the same level as these 3 previous guys, but he just proved that he’s good enough to take an extremely untalented team tot he playoffs. He could definitely end up with a starting job next year, bu tif not, he’ll likely take the role as a career backup. He would be one of the better backup QBs in the league in this scenaro. He’s not gonna wow you, but he’ll do enough to win if the team around him is good enough. He could be a good option for a team that sturggles with cap space.
Best Fits: Giants, Jets, Saints
Jimmy Garoppolo - 49ers
The only reason why Jimmy G isn’t above Danny is because of injuries. He’s proven that he can start for a legit contender when he’s on the field. However, that isn’t as often as you’d like from your starting QB. He struggles to stay on the field, but when on the field, he is one of the best game managers in the legaue. he has taken the 49ers to 2 NFC Champiosnhip games and a Super Bowl in the past 3 seasons. Things were looking up again until he went down with an injury. He may return in time for th end of the playoffs but it seems unlikely that he’ll get his job back from the undefeated Brock Purdy. He will be a good option for many teams looking to win now with a good roster.
Best Fits: Buccaneers, Jets, Commanders
These are the 5 QBs who I believe will end up with a week 1 Starting Job somewhere. However, there are many bridge QBs in FA that could be high end backups or short term starters for teams with a QB crisis. THese guys include, but are not limited to, Jacoby Brissett, Andy Dalton, Taylor Heinicke, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Mike White, Gardner Minshew, Teddy Bridgewater, Joe Flacco, and Tyler Huntley. The backup QB market might not get as much press ast eh starters, but there are a ton of them here in FA as well.
Trades:
The trade market is always fun. This year there are many QBs who might request a trade or be shopped agains their will. Many of these QBs are in bad systems, aren’t making enough money, or aren’t getting playing time. All of them either aren’t wanted or don’t want to be where they are. So here are some guys that teams should try to target via trade.
Aaron Rodgers - Packers
After missing the playoffs with the Packers and failing to win a Super Bowl yet again, it seems as if Rodgers might be done in Green Bay. There have been rumors of him wanting out for about 2 years now but it’s different as he got paid last year. This may affect his tradabilty but if he asks out, there may be nothing Green Bay can do about it. However, I believe he will choose to run it back due to thte strength of the team to close the season. They really seemed to be in form and Rodgers may believe that this will carry over to next season.
Best Fits: Packers, Raiders, Buccaneers
Derek Carr
Derek Carr recently released what was essentially a farewell letter to Raiders fans. He is done in Vegas. He was benched for the final 2 weeks of the season and was very inconsistent all year. He can ball but this organization was just dysfunctional all year. You can’t really blame it on Derek and hopefully he finds the right place to settle down.
Best Fits: Commanders, Buccaneers, Jets
Mac Jones
Mac is unlikely to get traded, especially if Matt Patricia is fired but he was very frustrated at points in the seaosn. The Patriots failed to reach the playoffs and play calling was horrible all season. The offense couldn’t find their rhythm and relied heavily on short gains. It was a bad season but he will likely be back as the Patirots don’t really have a better option and have a lot of other holes to fix before QB.
Best Fits: Patriots, Jets, Panthers
Ryan Tannehill - Titans
The Titans’ starting QB job is completely up for grabs as all three fo Ryan Tannehill, Malik Willis, and Josh Dobbs struggled mightily. There is not guarantee that Tannehill goes into next season as the week 1 starter so he may request a trade. He is a game manager at best but could probably take a team to the playoffs with a good system around him. Look to see him on a team like the Bucs or Saints that might get desperate for a QB.
Best Fits: Buccaneers, Saints, Commanders
Zach Wilson - Jets
The recent number 2 overall pick lost his starting job to Mike White. White is a Free Agent and the Jets have stated that they will not decommit to Zach Wilson so there is still a chance that he may be their starting QB Next year. However, it seems like they will try to get a new QB like Jimmy G. A team may try to get younger at the QB room and make a trade for Wilson, hoping he can live up to his potential.
Best Fits: Jets, Panthers, Giants
Trey Lance - 49ers
Maybe the most intriguing trade target, we have yet to see anything from Trey Lance in his NFL Career. He sat on the bench for his rookie year, starting just 2 games. He started another 2 games in his sophomore year before going down with an injury. Brock Purdy came in to replace him and Jimmy G and hasn’t lost a game yet. He seems like a lock to win the starting job as long as he doesn’t melt down in th eplayoffs. That will leave th eformer number 3 overall pick on the bench and likely asking for a trade.
Best Fits: Jets, Panthers, Saints
Trey Lance
Final Predictions:
I have given you a full analysis of the QB market, so now it’s time to predict the starting QB for every team.
Bills - Josh Allen
Dolphins - Tua Tagovailoa
Patriots - Mac Jones
Jets - Jimmy Garoppolo
Ravens - Lamar Jackson
Bengals - Joe Burrow
Browns - Deshaun Watson
Steelers - Kenny Pickett
Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence
Texans - CJ Stroud
Colts - Bryce Young
Titans - Malik Willis
Chiefs - Patrick Mahomes
Chargers - Justin Herbert
Broncos - Russell Wilson
Raiders - Tom Brady
Eagles - Jalen Hurts
Cowboys - Dak Prescott
Giants - Daniel Jones
Commanders - Derek Carr
Packers - Aaron Rodgers
Vikings - Kirk Cousins
Lions - Jared Goff
Bears - Justin Fields
Buccaneers - Ryan Tannehill
Panthers - Sam Darnold
Falcons - Desmond Ridder
Saints - Andy Dalton
49ers - Brock Purdy
Seahawks - Geno Smith
Cardinals - Kyler Murray
Rams - Matt Stafford