QB: Tier 1 - Projected NFL Starters

Desmond Ridder

Malik Willis

Tier 2 - QBs that will be serviceable but unimpressive as starters

Kenny Pickett

Matt Corral

Sam Howell

Tier 3 - If things break right they could start

Carson Strong

Bailey Zappe

Tier 4 - High Floor, low ceiling backup QBs

Brock Purdy

Cole Kelley

Dustin Krum

Kaleb Elleby

Jack Coan

Analysis: Arguably the biggest storyline of this year’s draft is the lack of top tier QBs. Every single guy has at least one big time issue in the top 5 (Ridder’s inaccuracy, Willis’ sacks, Pickett’s inability to play in the pocket, Corral’s basic offense, Howell’s bad 2021 season). I see Ridder and Willis as the top two guys as both are smart and very athletic. While neither are P5 quarterback’s, I do think both’s athleticism can and will translate to the next level. In last year’s draft, Ridder and Willis both likely end up below Fields but around Mac Jones level of prospect (for context Mac Jones was the 5th QB picked last year). Our tier 2 features a trio of bigger school QBs. I think Pickett is a lot more raw than advertised for the basic reason that almost all his plays are made outside the pocket, and while he has solid athleticism, it isn’t good enough to consistently beat defense’s. As for Corral, I am concerned about him only having ~80 actual dropbacks last year that weren’t RPOs. With Howell, I think his running ability and arm talent gives him a solid floor, but his inaccuracy and sporadic decision making limit his ceiling. In Tier 3 I believe both Zappe and Strong COULD start but also very easily could not. Both have really solid arm strength but are lacking in most every other category as a prospect. I could see these guys going to Tennessee or New Orleans or somewhere like that as a break-glass-if-needed option. With Tier 4, I expect one of these five to be called to action at some point in their careers and play fairly well. They all should have at least 2-3 years of an NFL career for one reason or another. Overall, the best value in this draft is in my opinion in tier 3 as I do think both Strong and Zappe could be a Davis Mills type that performs well enough to get a real chance as a pro QB. The worst value is at the top since there is no Trevor Lawrence or even a Justin Fields in this year’s draft class.