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Breaking Down the 2024 QB Market!


The quarterback is hands down the most important position in football. Teams spend years, or even decades, just trying to hit on their franchise QB. This offseason will once again see many teams look to find that quarterback as the position continues to become more and more talented. The QB position has drastically improved over the years to the point where guys who are arguably top 20 at the position can get moved. Every team just wants to get their franchise guy and it seems like if you’re not that, you’re not enough. Even if you’re a very solid top 20-30 NFL QB, you could very well end up losing your job. So let’s look at the best QBs on the market, whether that be through free agency, trades, or the draft, and which teams should target them.


First, Let’s rate teams by their need at the position. We’ll rate them on a 1-5 scale:

5 - You have your franchise QB for the next 5+ Years 4 - You have a (slightly above) average QB or a recent high draft pick that they’re still committed to 3 - You have a top 20-25ish QB or you have a young, unproven starter 2 - You have a high level backup or low level starting QB 1 - You need a QB ASAP

5: Chiefs, Ravens, Bills, Bengals, Chargers, Jaguars, Texans, Packers, Eagles 4: Rams, Cowboys, Cardinals, Dolphins, 49ers, Jets, Lions, Panthers, Colts, Titans 3: Browns, Saints, Broncos, Seahawks, Giants, Bears 2: Steelers, Patriots, Commanders, Falcons 1: Raiders, Buccaneers, Vikings

Note: If a player is in FA, he’s not considered a part of that team’s QB Room.

So based off this list, there are 3 teams that absolutely need a QB, 4 that should probably try and get one, and 6 more that could maybe be in the move for a QB. That is 13 teams that could potentially make a move this offseason.


The Draft

This is probably the most exciting part of the QB market this year with the trade candidates and FAs for the most part, lackluster. There are about 6 different guys that could potentially hear their names called on Day 1 or early into Day 2.

Caleb Williams - USC

Labelled by many a generational talent, Caleb Williams is a lock to go #1. He’s a Heisman winner with dual threat ability. He’s got elite arm talent & good accuracy. He can escape the pocket and make plays with his legs when needed. He does occasionally make risky throws which will need to be ironed out. The only real question about where he ends up on draft night is if the Bears keep the pick and select him or if they listen to trade offers and trade down for a ton of draft capital. This decision will be huge for both the Bears and Williams so it will be interesting to see how this plays out.

Potential Landing Spots: Bears, Patriots, Commanders

Drake Maye - North Carolina

Just like Caleb Williams at 1, Drake Maye seems locked into the #2 pick. He’s good in the pocket & can make throws with his arm. He does tend to hold onto the ball for too long some times and can take risks. Once again, the only real question about Maye’s future is whether the Commanders try to trade up and get Williams, in which case the Bears would probably try a double trade down, or if the Commanders will keep the pick and select Maye.

Potential Landing Spots: Commanders, Patriots, Falcons

Jayden Daniels - LSU

Jayden Daniels had an electric year with LSU, ending the season with a Heisman trophy. He’s a dual threat QB with great athleticism. He’s also very accurate and can make plays on the run. His pocket passing abilities are questionable at times. There’ve been rumors that he could jump Drake Maye for the second overall pick should his combine go well, but in all likelihood, he’ll end up going 3rd.

Potential Landing Spots: Patriots, Commanders, Falcons

JJ McCarthy - Michigan

JJ McCarthy had a great year with Michigan, winning a national title. He’s got good arm talent and is a good athlete as well. He is a bit undersized and inconsistent as a passer and he tends to struggle with the deep ball. Reports say that he’s likely to land somewhere in the 10-15 range, and there a couple teams there that could be interested in him.

Potential Landing Spots: Raiders, Broncos, Seahawks

Michael Penix Jr - Washington

Michael Penix Jr lit it up this year with Washington, leading them to the national championship game where he ultimately fell short to Michigan. He finished as the Heisman runner up but he proved to scouts that he can be a high level prospect, going in the late first or early second. He can thread the needle with great accuracy in the pocket. He makes smart decisions and is very tough. He is injury prone, suffering 4 season ending injuries at Indiana. However, he should still be a coveted prospect by many NFL teams.

Potential Landing Spots: Seahawks, Broncos, Vikings

Bo Nix - Oregon

Bo Nix had a great season at Oregon, finishing as a Heisman finalist. He’s got good arm strength, is an above average athlete and can improvise with his legs if needed. He does tend to struggle when blitzed & under heavy pressure but he’s got plenty of experience at the college level. He’s likely to go somewhere in the early second or even potentially the late first.

Potential Landing Spots: Seahawks, Broncos, Patriots


Free Agency

This year’s QB free agency pool is relatively weak and the top guys will most likely end up resigning, but we could see some minor movement.

Kirk Cousins - Vikings

Kirk was one of the few bright spots on the Vikings in the first half of the season. He was putting up MVP caliber numbers before suffering an Achilles tear. He’ll be 36 by the time the season starts so wherever he signs, it’ll likely be a short term deal. It’s a risky move considering his age and the severity of the injury he suffered but if he returns to his pre injury form, he could be the starting quarterback on a highly competitive team.

Potential Landing Spots: Vikings, Falcons, Steelers

Baker Mayfield - Buccaneers

The only other QB in free agency who’ll likely end up with a starting job is Baker Mayfield. He had an amazing year with the Buccaneers, forming a great connection with Mike Evans. They won the NFC South and even took down the reigning NFC champions in the Eagles before narrowly losing to the Lions in the divisional round. Mike Evans’ free agency decision could greatly impact Mayfield’s decision, but the Buccaneers should definitely try to resign them both as they can run the NFC South at least for next year.

Potential Landing Spots: Seahawks, Giants, Buccaneers

These are the only 2 QBs who I believe will end up with a week 1 starting Job somewhere. However, there are many bridge QBs in FA that could be high end backups or short term starters in the case of an injury. These guys include, but are not limited to, Jimmy Garropolo, Ryan Tannehill, Gardner Minshew, Josh Dobbs, Jake Browning, Jacoby Brissett, Sam Darnold, Drew Lock, Tyler Huntley, Joe Flacco, and Mason Rudolph. The backup QB market might not get as much press as the starters, but there are a ton of them here in FA who could end up stepping in.


Trades

The trade market is always fun, and there are a few guys who could be on the move via trade. Both of these guys have a lot of questions surrounding their future, and there’s a lot riding on their GMs to make the right decision.

Justin Fields - Bears

By far the biggest question of the offseason is whether the Bears stick with Justin Fields or draft Caleb Williams. At the moment, it looks like they’re going to go with Caleb Williams, which means that Fields will have to be traded. He’s young and has shown great flashes with the Bears but has never really been able to consistently use his arm to make plays. There are many teams out there that could try and fix him, and the price will likely be around a 2nd round pick.

Potential Landing Spots: Steelers, Falcons, Raiders

Russell Wilson - Broncos

Currently, it looks like Wilson is more likely to be cut than traded but he is still technically on the Broncos roster. Assuming they draft a QB, he’s definitely going to end up being moved. He started off the season quietly performing very well but down the stretch he got benched so that the Broncos could save some money. That seemed to be the tipping point and it doesn’t seem likely that he’ll be back in a Broncos uniform. No team is likely to commit to him long term at this point but he could be a bridge option on a few teams.

Potential Landing Spots: Steelers, Falcons, Raiders


Final Predictions

Now that I’ve shown the guys who will be on the market, it’s time for predictions (Bold = New). I went 23/32 last year, not that good lol.

Bills - Josh Allen

Dolphins - Tua Tagovailoa

Patriots - Jayden Daniels

Jets - Aaron Rodgers

Ravens - Lamar Jackson

Bengals - Joe Burrow

Browns - Deshaun Watson

Steelers - Justin Fields

Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence

Texans - CJ Stroud

Colts - Anthony Richardson

Titans - Will Levis

Chiefs - Patrick Mahomes

Chargers - Justin Herbert

Broncos - Bo Nix

Raiders - JJ McCarthy

Eagles - Jalen Hurts

Cowboys - Dak Prescott

Giants - Daniel Jones

Commanders - Drake Maye

Packers - Jordan Love

Vikings - Kirk Cousins

Lions - Jared Goff

Bears - Caleb Williams

Buccaneers - Baker Mayfield

Panthers - Bryce Young

Falcons - Russell Wilson

Saints - Derek Carr

49ers - Brock Purdy

Seahawks - Geno Smith

Cardinals - Kyler Murray

Rams - Matt Stafford

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