Will Levis and Anthony Richardson. What's significant about those two guys? Well, they're both quarterbacks in the upcoming 2023 NFL Draft, projected to go in the first round. They're both unproven and raw but full of potential. They both had tons of struggles in college ut have the tools that every coach would love to work with. But are they being overhyped? There are mock drafts everywhere that have Levis going number 1 and Richrdson going top 10. They seem to have very overinflated draft stock for two guys who had TONS of struggles in college thanks to something called "potential". But potential is not always reached. Let's analyze the recent first-round QB draft picks and see if they lived up to their potential.
2013:
EJ Manuel - Bust
EJ Manuel was the only QB drafted in the first round of the lackluster 2013 NFL draft. He would start just 18 games in his NFL game through 5 seasons with a 20:16 TD-INT Ratio, failing to hit 4000 career passing yards or 60% completion percentage.
2014:
Blake Bortles - Mid
Blake was a mediocre QB in his time with Jacksonville but did take them to the AFC Conference title game. However, he did throw 10+ INT in every year that he started, and he was pretty much the definition of mid.
Johnny Manziel - Bust
Manziel only lasted 2 years in the NFL, having horrible off and on-the-field issues, throwing just 7 touchdowns to 7 interceptions in a measly 8 starts. He struggled with maturity issues and didn't have enough game to back it up, leading to a very short NFL tenure.
Teddy Bridgewater - Mid
Teddy had a very promising NFL career that was unfortunately derailed by injuries. He still has had a solid NFL career, bouncing around as a journeyman and holding starting jobs in Minnesota, Carolina, and Denver, as well as stepping in as a backup in New Orleans and Miami. He will be a serviceable backup for years to come and has had a solid career, but nothing special.
2015:
Jameis Winston - Bust
If Jameis Winston had been drafted at 32, I may have given him the benefit of the doubt and labeled him as mid, but he was the number 1 pick, so he's a bust. He had some good moments with Tampa, throwing for 5000 yards and 30 TDs, but he was the definition of a hit-or-miss QB, being the only person to ever throw for 30 TD and 30 INT in the same season. He seemed to be finding something in New Orleans, throwing for 14 TD and 3 INT through his first 7 starts there, but unfortunately, injuries derailed things and he lost his starting job. He's set to hit free agency but it seems like he will settle into the career backup role.
Marcus Mariota - Bust
Mariota had some very good moments at the beginning of his career but it all fell apart after he got benched for Ryan Tannehill. He managed to regain a starting job in Atlanta but didn't last the full season, getting benched in favor of rookie Desmond Ridder. He seems like he will have a similar career to Jameis, settling for the career backup role.
2016:
Jared Goff - Mid
Goff has taken the Rams to the Super Bowl and he's a very high-end system QB at his best. He can thrive with a good defense and skill position players around him. He's a very solid QB but just not what you look for in a number 1 overall pick.
Carson Wentz - Mid
If Wentz never had that MVP-caliber season in 2017, I'd say he's a bust but he's proven he can be a good QB. He peaked pretty early due to injuries and was never able to return to that form. He's not very confident and makes brain-dead mistakes. It seems that he may never be a starting QB in the NFL again.
Paxton Lynch - Bust
Lynch started a total of 5 games in his NFL career, throwing 4 TD and 4 INT along with around 800 yards. He never got a chance and I'm still not really sure why the Broncos drafted him so high. It was just a dumb move.
2017:
Mitch Trubisky - Bust
When the Bears traded up to get their guy, a lot of people believed it was for Deshaun Watson. But nope, they took the raw Mitch Trubisky. Trubisky had some solid seasons, making a pro bowl, but he failed to resign after his rookie year and fell short of any true success. He already seems to have past his peak and will likely just be a backup from here on out.
Patrick Mahomes - Hit
Mahomes is our first true hit of the post. He's easily the best QB in the league and has won an MVP (soon to be 2), Super Bowl MVP and broken numerous NFL records. He is the future of the NFL and will be a dominant player for years to come. He was a steal for the Chiefs at 10 and there is not a single person in the Chiefs organization that regrets trading up for Mahomes.
Deshaun Watson - Mid
If it weren't for all the off-the-field issues, I'd say Deshaun's a hit but he's looked rusty since returning from his suspension and I'm not sure how he'll be in Cleveland. He seemed like the future of the Texans until the allegations came out and he sat out a year and then was suspended for over half a year before finally returning.
2018:
Baker Mayfield - Bust
If Baker wasn't the number 1 pick, I'd label him mid and say he still has time to prove himself, but as the number 1 overall pick, 1 playoff berth isn't enough. He has been extremely inconsistent, having seasons where people are ready to crown him top 10 and then others which lead to his benching. He will likely land a backup role somewhere and settle down.
Sam Darnold - Bust
Darnold was just downright horrible in New York and wasn't much better in Carolina. His contract is up and he'll likely just end up as a backup somewhere. He showed no signs and made horrible brain-dead plays. He is just flat-out not a good player.
Josh Allen - Hit
Allen had a slow start to his career, but he's started to find his groove, cementing himself as a top 5 QB in the league. He finally has good weapons and he's been unstoppable, putting up MVP-like numbers for 3 straight years. To put it simply, he is HIM in Buffalo.
Josh Rosen - Bust
Rosen is the definition of a bust. He lasted 1 season in Arizona before they trade him and drafted his replacement. He spent one year in Miami before being released. He has been for 5 teams in the past 3 years, only being promoted to the active roster for 2 of them. He had a 54% completion percentage and a 12:21 TD-INT Ratio.
Lamar Jackson - Hit
Lamar won MVP in his first full year as a starter and has been amazing when on the field with the Ravens. He dragged them to the playoffs multiple times and is easily their MVP. He does sometimes struggle with injury issues but he's arguably a top 5 QB when healthy.
2019:
Kyler Murray - Mid
It still seems to early to fairly judge Kyler Murray. He has struggled at times and has been amazing at times. His desire to play the game is questionable and his mentality isn't all there. He also struggles with injuries. He's amazingly talented if he can stay on the field and if he actually wants to play but that's a big IF.
Daniel Jones - Mid
Danny played well this year but I'm gonna need to see more from him before I can officially label him a hit. he seems like a slightly more talented Jared Goff and will likely be a high-end system QB for years to come like Goff, Cousins, or Garoppolo.
Dwayne Haskins - Mid
It's unfair to judge Haskins as he never got a truly fair chance in the NFL. He was with a dysfunctional organization in Washington and never got a chance to suit up for the Steelers. His life was tragically cut short when he finally seemed to be turning things around. RIP Dwayne Haskins.
2020:
Joe Burrow - Hit
Burrow has dominated the league since entering, in my opinion, the second-best QB in the NFL. He has turned around the Bengals franchise from horrible to Super Bowl caliber. He has already taken them to the Super Bowl and is a game away from doing it again. He's the man in Cincy.
Tua Tagovailoa - Mid
It's too early to assess Tua. He's played well at times but also struggled. He tragically suffered 3 concussions and suffers horribly with injuries. We're still not sure if he'll be able to stay on the field. He was starting to build great chemistry with Tyreek and Waddle. He has a bright future if he can stay healthy.
Justin Herbert - Hit
Herbert has broken numerous records since entering the league, winning OROY and leading the Chargers back to the playoffs. he still struggles at the biggest stage, suffering massive breakdowns in the playoffs and must-win games. He's a great player and the Chargers need to do their job to build around him.
Jordan Love - Mid
Love hasn't gotten a chance in the NFL yet, sitting behind Aaron Rodgers so it wouldn't be fair to label him as hit or bust. He has potential but we don't know if he'll live up to that just yet. It'll be interesting to see if they go with him if/when Rodgers leaves.
2021:
Trevor Lawrence - Hit
TLaw has been amazing, leading a huge playoff comeback and dominating the last 2 months. He's been one of the best QBs in the NFL as of late. He's starting to look like the generational prospect that we labeled him as coming out of high school. He finally has a competent coach and the sky's the limit for him.
Zach Wilson - Mid
Zach Wilson will have to fight for a starting job next year. He's shown flashes but has been battling with Mike White on and off for that starting job. It'll be interesting to see what the Jets do this offseason and if Wilson is part of their future, but for now, I'll say mid.
Trey Lance - Mid
Trey Lance hasn't really gotten a chance yet, sitting behind Jimmy G in his first year and getting hurt early in his second year. The emergence of Brock Purdy may mean that he loses his starting job, leading to the possibility that he gets a fresh start with a new team. It's definitely too early to judge him.
Justin Fields - Mid
Some people may argue that Fields is already a hit, but I need to see more. He is a great runner but I could easily see him becoming a Kyler or Lamar where he just can't stay on the field. I need to see him take his throwing game to the next level. It's unfair to judge him now as he has a horrible oline, defense, and weapons. If the Bears succeed in building around him, we'll see the true Justin Fields.
Mac Jones - Mid
It's too early to assess Mac as he's had his ups and downs with the Patriots. He finally has a decent OC so we'll see how much he improves. If he doesn't, Bailey Zappe is right there, ready to take the job.
2022:
Kenny Pickett - Mid
As much as I'd love to say Pickett is a hit thanks to his late-season heroics, it's way too early. I still remember the 3 INT games. He's got a ton of potential and is extremely clutch but will he be able to live up to the hype?
So finally, after assessing the last 30 FRP QBs, we see that there have been a total of
6 Hits (20%)
15 Mids (50%)
9 Busts (30%)
So is it really worth spending a top 5 pick on Will Levis or Anthony Richardson? Comment below your take