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Measuring passing beyond the assist (also using the image feature) (this is outdated was never publish) (but it's still worth it

Measuring passing beyond the assist --- Using Ben Taylor's Box Creation and Passer Rating for the top 50 "assisters" of the 2019-20 season

So is Box Creation accurate enough to eliminate the aforementioned Rondo Effect? in my tracking sample, seven players had more than twice as many assist as opportunities created. here's what the main culprits look like, with how much Box Creation was able to reduce the "error" in assist as a measure of creati

Players: Ast/100/OC/100/Error/Box Creation/Error/Error Reduction

Derek Fisher 6.3/1.4/3.9/1.1/191% Rajon Rondo 12.9/5.4/7.5/0.7/136% Steve Blake 6.8/2.7/4.1/-0.8/121% Jason Kidd 11.2/4.2/7/1.9/121% Eric Maynor 8.4/4.2/4.2/0.7/83% Mike Conley 9.7/4.3/5.4/2.5/69% O.J Mayo) 5.2/1.6/3.6/3.1/28%

Box Creation largely eliminates overestimation effects, it's still slightly over credits some of the players like this, but compared to the previous discrepancies between assist and creation it's an astronomical improvement. (and Rondo himself was pegged perfectly by Box Creation.)

Formula: https://i.imgur.com/nw9SJkb.png

Formula of the box Creation Ast=0.1843+(Pts+Tov)*0,0969-2.3021(3pt proficiency)+0.0582(ast(Pts+Tov)*3pt profiency)-1.1942

                                     Where

                3pt profiency = (2/(1+EXP(-3PA))-1)*3P% (All stats are per 100)

Player Discussion "This seems like a hassle... Why not just use assists/game?" Well, assists are a pretty antiquated measure of passing ability and shot creation, as they're susceptible to the "Rondo Assist", where credit is given for passing to a good isolation scorer, or hitting teammates freed by a screen...

... (Assists) under credit guys like LeBron and Kobe, who rack up hockey assists left and right because their scoring pressures the defense and leads to an open shot after multiple passes. It will over credit guys like Rondo who pound the ball a lot and pass to skilled scorers. (article)

Ben Taylor (AKA Thinking Basketball on YouTube) has some proprietary passing-related stats available on Backpicks.com (Patreon-only), including Passer Rating and Box Creation, so I decided to list the top 50 passers in the NBA this season (by Assists/Game) but also include their corresponding Passer Rating and Box Creation to provide more context for their passing ability and shot creation

Definitions:

"Box Creation", designed by Ben Taylor Box Creation = SHOT CREATION, --- "an estimate for the number of open shots created for teammates (per 100 possessions)". Box Creation attempts to correct for "Rondo Assists" --- see methodology here by Ben Taylor

Note 1: The highest Box Creation of all-time goes to Russell Westbrook's 2017 season: an insane 21.2 Box Creation (15.9 per 75); a few other historical examples --- '07 Nash: 17.7 (13.3 per 75); '95 Stockton: 16.1 (12.1 per 75); '90 Magic: 16.0 (12.0 per 75); '16 Curry: 15.8 (11.9 per 75)

Note 2: Generally, players who blend both scoring AND passing well will have great Box Creation numbers - it's the combination of both that puts the most pressure on defenses

Note 3:

... And I find this to be one of the most fundamental and fascinating components of basketball — too much scoring (low assist numbers) means a player isn’t creating for others that much, and too much passing (low scoring numbers) means a player isn’t creating for others either! Instead, he must achieve an equilibrium, in which he threatens the defense enough to score himself, but also keeps them honest with passing. I discuss this and its impact on offense in great length in Thinking Basketball if you want to dive further into the how and why.

Note 4: In the table below, I've listed Box Creation multiplied by a factor of 0.75 (since BC is a 'per100' stat), to give "per 75" values that are more directly comparable to assists/game (since most modern high-volume playmakers use around 75 possessions in a game)

"Passer Rating", designed by Ben Taylor Passer Rating = 1-10 scale of PASSING ABILITY

Formula: Incorporates i)Layup assist percentage (since 2002), ii)Offensive Load, iii)Assist-to-Load ratio (per 100), iv)Non-3 Creation-to-Load ratio, v)Height, and vi)Turnovers^2

Note 1: The only player to have a "perfect" passer rating was Magic Johnson, in the playoffs (10.0; he achieved this mark 7 times); 2006 Steve Nash was a 9.6

Note 2: Passer Rating isn't necessarily "volume-dependent"; efficient, low-turnover passers like Marc Gasol can have sky-high Passer Ratings despite low Assists/Game numbers

Note 3: Passer Rating likes layup-assists

(Note 4: Personal rule-of-thumb --- Passer rating ≥9 = rarefied air; ≥8 = ~top 20-ish passer; ≥7 = excellent; ≥6 = decent; ≥4-5 = passable-good)

Note 5: The scale is not linear: it's much much harder to go from, say, an 8 to a 9, than it is to go from a 5 to a 6

Without further ado... here are the Box Creation and Passer Rating numbers for the top-50 assists/game players during the 2019-20 NBA season! (via Basketball Reference) Player Assists/Game BOX CREATION (per 75) = How many 'true' shots created for teammates PASSER RATING = 1-10 scale of passing ability

  1. LeBron James 10.2 APG 11.3 9.5 (👑)

  2. Trae Young 9.3 APG 13.1 7.9

  3. Luka Dončić 8.8 APG 13.4 (👑) 8.3

  4. Ricky Rubio 8.8 APG 6.5 9.2

  5. Damian Lillard 8.0 APG 10.8 7.6

  6. Ben Simmons 8.0 APG 4.7 8.2

  7. Devonte' Graham 7.5 APG 7.2 8.1

  8. James Harden 7.5 APG 10.8 7.3

  9. Kyle Lowry 7.5 APG 7.4 6.0

  10. Ja Morant 7.3 APG 7.6 6.9 Player Assists/Game BOX CREATION (per 75) = How many 'true' shots created for teammates PASSER RATING = 1-10 scale of passing ability

  11. Malcolm Brogdon 7.1 APG 7.5 8.3

  12. Lonzo Ball 7.0 APG 3.5 7.8

  13. Nikola Jokić 7.0 APG 7.4 9.0

  14. Russell Westbrook 7.0 APG 7.2 5.7

  15. Spencer Dinwiddie 6.8 APG 7.7 8.7

  16. De'Aaron Fox 6.8 APG 8.3 6.5

  17. Jrue Holiday 6.7 APG 5.0 7.2

  18. Chris Paul 6.7 APG 8.0 7.0

  19. Fred VanVleet 6.6 APG 6.3 6.4

  20. Devin Booker 6.5 APG 8.9 6.2 Player Assists/Game BOX CREATION (per 75) = How many 'true' shots created for teammates PASSER RATING = 1-10 scale of passing ability

  21. Bradley Beal 6.1 APG 8.9 7.8

  22. Jimmy Butler 6.1 APG 5.6 7.5

  23. Giannis Antetokounmpo 5.6 APG 8.9 6.0

  24. DeMar DeRozan 5.6 APG 6.3 5.5

  25. Derrick Rose 5.6 APG 9.7 6.9

  26. Lou Williams 5.6 APG 7.6 7.1

  27. Eric Bledsoe 5.4 APG 6.5 6.2

  28. Tomáš Satoranský 5.4 APG 2.9 8.7

  29. Joe Ingles 5.2 APG 3.2 8.8

  30. Jeff Teague 5.2 APG 6.0 6.7 Player Assists/Game BOX CREATION (per 75) = How many 'true' shots created for teammates PASSER RATING = 1-10 scale of passing ability

  31. Bam Adebayo 5.1 APG 3.3 6.0

  32. Goran Dragić 5.1 APG 6.7 6.6

  33. Markelle Fultz 5.1 APG 4.7 6.6

  34. T.J. McConnell 5.0 APG 4.8 8.3

  35. Domantas Sabonis 5.0 APG 3.6 6.2

  36. Kawhi Leonard 4.9 APG 7.7 6.7

  37. Marcus Smart 4.9 APG 3.8 7.1

  38. Ish Smith 4.9 APG 4.3 6.2

  39. Jamal Murray 4.8 APG 5.9 5.8

  40. Kemba Walker 4.8 APG 7.3 6.1 Player Assists/Game BOX CREATION (per 75) = How many 'true' shots created for teammates PASSER RATING = 1-10 scale of passing ability

  41. Shabazz Napier 4.7 APG 4.9 6.3

  42. D.J. Augustin 4.6 APG 5.2 5.5

  43. Tyus Jones 4.4 APG 5.5 7.6

  44. CJ McCollum 4.4 APG 5.0 5.2

  45. Khris Middleton 4.3 APG 5.9 7.3

  46. Donovan Mitchell 4.3 APG 6.0 5.4

  47. Brandon Ingram 4.2 APG 4.8 5.6

  48. Zach Lavine 4.2 APG 6.1 5.2

  49. Gordon Hayward 4.1 APG 4.0 6.6

  50. Dejounte Murray 4.1 APG 3.4 5.6 Player Assists/Game BOX CREATION (per 75) = How many 'true' shots created for teammates PASSER RATING = 1-10 scale of passing ability

2017-18 Season Passer Ratings, if you're interested

Thanks for reading!

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