The Rundown:
If there is one thing I know about basketball, it is that talent will always shine through in the end, and that talent cannot be discounted by its surroundings. Sure, a flower may look more appealing when it is in a field of dirt, but a flower is still a flower, no matter its location. If there are any Cal State Baptist fans in my audience, I profusely apologize for calling your school a field of dirt, but if this analogy helps people understand the brilliance of Taran Armstrong, it is a necessary, if not a bit derogatory, sacrifice. Far too often Armstrong's prodigious testament on basketball is discredited because of the ones that are receiving his message, but I hope that eventually, people will understand that no amount of dirt can extinguish the fire that Taran has set in the mind of everyone that truly desires to watch his game.
It would be criminal malpractice to start a discussion of Armstrong on a topic that is not his passing and overall playmaking. In a word? Stupifying. It is impossible to watch a game of California Baptist without having to dust off your jaw after the fact. He possesses a level of basketball omniscience that is not only impossible to teach, but it is also impossible to find! The game that Taran is playing simply isn’t the same game his teammates are playing, which naturally makes his strategy fall apart at times. One of the things that I am constantly looking for when evaluating playmaking, and to a greater extent pure passing, is the players ability to occupy the minds of help defenders. This can happen in a variety of ways, with the most commonly acknowledged being rim pressure. As the rim is pressured by the hall handler, the defending team has to collapse because of the threat. However, another way to obtain real estate in the brain of the defense is your ability to constantly make your teammates become open. When Taran has the ball, every single player on the court is a threat to score, every single player on the court is open, all due to his extraordinary ability to hit passing windows and small pockets. This ability to almost neutralize defenders, who now have to guard their man off the ball in a way distinctly dissimilar to any other game, opens up the entire court for action. This may have overly complicated his playmaking, but its the best way to describe it that I currently have. This all stems from his passing, which is the best in this class by a rather wide margin, and on the same level as the Giddeys and Sharifes of classes past. His accuracy is astounding, with a bizarre ability to hit players in their shooting pocket without actually ever seeing them on the play. His intellect to understand and anticipate the flow of the game is honestly bizarre and even more honestly unheard of. His body control on these passes is generational, oftentimes stretching his arms, jumping a step, or stopping on a dime to hit the angle that only he anticipates. Armstrongs ability to read the play and subsequently the angle that his pass needs if he wants it to hit the intended target (who, to be clear, is definitely not open at this point) before working to a spot on the court that gives him the angle necessary blows the mind. His skip passing is easily the best in the class, constantly using the correct slope on the balls path where it soars right over the outstretched arms of the defender before landing in a spot that only his own particular teammate can reach in time. Taran can hit these passes with either hand, on the move, or on the catch, opening up so many opportunities that other floor generals can only dream of obtaining. Armstrong is almost the definition of passing players open, throwing the ball into open space instead of to a player.
This is still only referencing his more improvisational passes, without even speaking of his set plays and pick-and-roll hits. With it being impossible to say which area is his primary area of expertise, I will simply say that distribution is his strong suit. When operating in the pick and roll, his scoring gravity (or more specifically the lack thereof) doesn’t really hurt his proficiency at this level, there are some causes for concerns at the next one, but at this stage he is, simply put, a maestro. He curls off the screen smoothly and then waits till the perfect moment to make his decisive strike. Manipulation is his expertise, creating a path with his eyes which leads the defense to hone in on one man, while he patiently waits for his first target to open up. His teammates, while generally untalented, have gotten pretty good at understanding that Taran sometimes has ulterior motives when he starts to look them open, ulterior motives that Taran and only Taran can comprehend. Of course, this playmaking won’t translate perfectly to the NBA; teams will be less prone to jump on his pump fakes, and more physically imposing defenders will be placed on him night in and night out. However, that combination of translatable feel, positional height, and accuracy cannot be found anywhere else in this draft, so even if it takes a minute or two for Taran to completely adjust to the next level, it would be a crime to bet against him discovering new tricks, ESPECIALLY when considering his best talent is dependant on other people. When the talent of those other people increase, the value that he provides increases at the same rate.
Of course, the rest of Tarans game isn’t on the same level as that of his passing, but there are still some encouraging flashes. Armstrong isn’t a great scorer; even I, his biggest fan, would feel disingenuous trying to preach that he has nasty high usage scoring just hidden in the field of dirt that is Cal Baptist. The encouraging flashes though, are rather… encouraging! His floater game is excellent, extending out further than the floater of most of his peers. He doesn’t get much elevation on this shot, but there is a quick release on top of his 6’5 frame, paired with some solid if unspectacular touch. It really does open up his pick and roll game because the big can’t drop all the way to the paint, because Tarans in between game is a real threat, extending even to beyond the free throw line. His finishing isn’t great, and is where his spindly frame rears its ugly head. I wouldn’t call him weak by any means, but for a player that loves to use the pick and roll to get to the paint, strength should be a major focus point for any team that plans on developing him. It appears he has a solid wingspan, but he shies away from contact, evidenced in his low free throw numbers. It doesn’t feel that Taran lacks confidence on the court, so I expect this to fix itself in time, but it is something to worry about at the moment. Armstrongs body control still shines in these scenarios, with acrobatic finishes, but acrobatic finishes aren’t really a great way to gain easy points in the NBA.
His shooting is perhaps the most uncertain part of his game, with a variety of different indicators. Taran really isn’t hitting his free throws or threes, albeit on low volume for each, but his actual form is fine on both (a bit of a finicky base on his three point shot, not at all consistent but I think this can be solved relatively easily with some advanced coaching) and has great touch, as stated before. My official projection for his shooting is solidly passable; able to hit open threes off the catch, and will use his quickish release to sometimes take advantage of teams that go under the screen. It takes a little bit for him to set his feet, so projecting any great mid range game seems unfair but at the end of the day, the question is how much does that really matter? For a player that will mainly be tasked at getting others open, a skill like isolation mid range creation, something reserved for high level scorers, feels like it would be excessive gravy if anything.
Sticking on offense, Taran has an above average handle for someone his size and age. It feels very versatile, with his ability to keep it low or bring it high on hesitation moves. He isn’t going to be breaking down his man with the dribble, but by keeping it close to his body Tarans handle is decidedly functional. On a similar topic, his footwork is also fairly impressive for a guard. Each step he makes seems like it has a real purpose, and when he has a ginormous mismatch in the paint, he is able to leverage his height and the aforementioned footwork to consistently get pretty good looks. I don’t think that Taran Armstrong post ups will be a regular commodity in the NBA, but an undervalued idea when evaluating prospects is just ability in a wide range of areas. If he has so many different paths to succeed, or likewise so many skills that count as passable, if his one bankable skill hits on the level I am projecting the rest need to be just that, passable. Off ball offense is a little less pretty for Taran, which does hurt his projection to the next level when considering role. He makes pretty smart cuts, and with his feet set he can hit a three pointer, but it is obvious that most of his value comes on the ball. He tends to wander a little bit without the rock, which me and my rose tinted glasses will try and pass off as more role based at this level. Because so much of the offense is dependant on his ability to create open looks for his teammates, he just isn’t aware of really what to do when he isn’t actively dribbling. Of course, his best roll at the next level will be a ball dominant pick and roll player, but he will need to continue to stay locked in when that isn’t his responsibility. However, at the end of the day, I tend to bet on his ability to just make it work off of the ball. Betting against high feel players, which Taran is, when it comes to figuring out concepts and role is, to put it nicely, risky and it put it correctly, dumb. The best players are those that have to scale down from their college role, and they are able to do this because their proficiency in college came from their exceptional feel compared to their peers. This is what I project to happen with Mr. Armstrong; a quick lesson in what he will be asked to do, before excelling.
To think that we haven’t even talked about one whole side of the court yet, don’t worry defense I’m here now. Using his solid height, build, feel, and motor, Taran is a passable on ball defender on both guard positions. He isn’t dominant laterally, but he isn’t slow either. That tends to be the best explanation of his athleticism, he certainly isn’t a bad athlete, but classifying him as a positive would be facetious as well. He likes to use his size to smother smaller ball handlers, and for what it’s worth seems to take pride in his successes on defense. Screens are a bit of a hiccup for him, tending to get caught and almost “die” on them, but purely as a point of attack isolation defender, I don’t think Taran will be attacked on this end. I circle back to feel when it comes to his off ball defense; at times in his current role he can fall asleep but players this smart tend to make it work when it comes to rotations and help defense. He seems courageous when it comes to taking charges, and doesn’t back down from any challenge that he is given, one of my favorite things about him. Anticipating him to be a stopper is unfair, but anticipating “PASS”ability (very proud of myself, not sure if anyone is actually gonna read this far to see my funny joke, comment if you actually did) on defense seems fair.
Passability is the name of the game when it comes to Taran, in two different ways. His shooting, finishing, defense, lateral quickness, burst, vertical, strength? All passable, he won’t get picked on by opposing game plans, and when it comes to someone with his level of passing (pass-ability), asking for average seems fair enough. If a player can hold up well enough in other areas that his dominant talents can shine through, that is a player worth taking. This does put a lot of pressure on his passing ability as well as subtle improvements in each of the areas I listed above, which is why I don’t have him higher on my big board (as well as his ball dominant nature, him playing next to another ball dominant player is definitely the trickiest thing to evaluate with Taran), but projecting someone to be just good enough in other areas for his passing to be as marvelous as I know it can be seems like a good bet to me. Great positional size, greater positional feel, and best passing ability? A combination that deserves to go in the first round.
Passing maestro, easily the best in the class in my eyes, with the ability to hit every single look in the book. Interesting shooting projection, definitely his swing skill, as well as just being passable in other areas hinders him, but never bet against that feel and passing and size.
Ricky Rubio, Shorter Giddey, taller Rondo? Jason Williams? Doc Rivers?