The Rundown:
Chet Holmgren is the victim of some of the laziest draft evaluations I have ever seen, coming from both sides. Many Chet believers go as deep as saying “He’s a unicorn! Find another 7 footer who can dribble, pass, and shoot like that, I DARE YOU!”. His doubters go with the route of “Chet weighs 120 pounds soaking wet, no way he can handle an 82 game NBA schedule!”. That tends to be the end of the analysis. I shall try my best to go a little bit deeper, so sorry if this scouting report is disgustingly lengthy.
To start, offense. Well actually to start, the frame. I know I know but it might be important. I don’t think he has a frame that will be able to put on a lot of weight, I think 10-15 pounds is a reasonable expectation. Alright, now actually, offense. In college he translated about as well as everyone anticipated. Against most of his competition, he is simply too long for anyone to adequately cover on a consistent basis. His handle is effective against his current competition, and his athleticism looks perfectly fine. His shot, while a little slow, is productive. However, there is plenty of reasons for concern about how that will look in the NBA. He is currently being hyped up as a unicorn level prospect, due to his guard skills at 7 feet. My worry is that those guard skills will be, for the most part, negated at the next level. His handle, while good for a player his size, would be a fair bit below average for a wing, and his athleticism isn’t enough to consistently blow by bigs. What does that mean? That means that the point of diminishing returns for a big man handle has been passed by Chet. He may be able to drive past a closing out defender, but any more than that I do not think is likely. His shot also has some concerns. Holmgren has a slow, 2 motion release that will almost definitely not result in any pull up equity. Being relegated to a catch and shoot player on offense, in part due to his inability to set a good hard screen and his tendency to get pushed off of his spot when he does try and drive leaving his handle largely irrelevant puts a serious ceiling on his potential as an offensive player. It seems likely that his passing will translate, but not in an inverse pick and roll, if people were expecting that. His processing speed is super high, and he’ll make the right decisions most of the time. This makes me think that he will never be a negative on offense, but a player who can’t roll to the hoop and be a genuine lob threat. There is still some hope for his pick and roll play even without vertical spacing because his finishing technique is just so advanced, but it's just another roadblock for a player that seems to have a lot of those. Guys like that need to be a genius level passer or generational big man shooter to make up for that an be a top 10 pick. I think it’s possible (which you could maybe tell due to my placement, maybe I don’t give you enough credit) but he is in an immediate pit.
Defense is where the lion's share of the appeal lies. If he wasn’t jammed between Evan Mobley and Victor Wembenyama in draft classes, he would be regarded as a once in a generation rim protector. His timing is superb, and he tends to swallow up players in the post with his mammoth wingspan. One of my favorite tells of a good shot blocker is someone being able to block shots with both hands, and it’s looking like Chet is sufficiently ambidextrous. He has the heart of a 90s Knicks player, never afraid of a challenge, and takes genuine pleasure in being a dominant shot blocker, but also a deterrent (the best type of rim protector. Oh hello there Rudy Gobert!). Rim protectors in this age of analytics are tremendously valuable, and Chet will be able to anchor a great defense. Sure, he won’t be able to guard Jokic or Embiid, but I am tired of that complaint. There are very very few instances where he will be an issue for his team on defense, and a big man being an expert postup defender isn’t a huge deal. An expert interior and team defender? Those are the guys that get the big bucks. His switchability is fine, his lateral quickness is nothing special but he will be more switchable than the average big. On defense, his rebound and run potential, the one time that I think his handle will be super impactful, it is obvious where the saying defense leads to offense was generated. At the end of the day, high level basketball IQ players with great discipline and freaky physicals tend to just work out on defense, which is why he is easily, far and away the best defender now, and best defensive prospect in this class, and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. I also don’t believe that he will be injured out of the league. Some bodies are just durable, and the toughness added to the lack of high flying antics equates to a player that I think will be able to handle the rigors of the NBA.
A transcendent rim protector, who should be switchable enough on defense to manage, who might be in for some troubles on offense due to his handle and jumper that perhaps won’t translate. Him not getting bigger hurts his screening and ability to bounce off defenders, but likely isn’t a huge deal.
Myles Turner with a splash of Kristaps Porzingis, a pinch of Bill Laimbeer