Paolo Banchero: 6'10" 245 lbs Paolo Banchero has the highest potential to become an offensive superstar in the draft and should be serviceable on D. Banchero couples elite size and ability with a basketball to be a serious threat from the mid-post and in and should he develop into a slightly above league average 3 point shooter, I think we are looking at an offensive star. Banchero should immediately be able to score in the NBA, which is not a given for top picks whatsoever. Banchero should be a very good passer as he displayed ability to pass out of doubles in college games, and at the NBA level, with the more spacing he should have more ability to get into the teeth of the defense from isolations and drive and kick at a very high level. I buy Banchero's ability to defend switches in the NBA and be a possible star on offense. To me, that's a guy worthy of the top pick.

Strengths:

• Versatile offensive weapon that fits modern day NBA game beautifully

• Physically impressive. Great frame.

• Skilled and savvy ball handler with offensive creativity above average regardless of position but especially for his position.

• Should become an excellent passer in a few years and is already good.

• Good shooter but can improve with consistent mechanics. Concerns:

• Not super twitchy as an athlete. Below the rim finisher for most part.

• Gets in trouble on offense taking the ball too deep without shooting or passing.

• Powerful more so than quick on attacks from faceup isolation.

Swing skills: He will be a star if his shot becomes a weapon and his passing is as good as the flashes he demonstrated vs doubles is consistent in the NBA. Banchero projects as a 23-25 ppg scorer whose star levels depend on the efficiency with which he gets those points and how well he can defend. A Lamarcus Aldridge and Julius Randle-esque player with more upside than Randle and a different means to scoring than Aldridge. Should thrive if given keys to be a star early on in his career.

The Rundown:

While it does feel odd to have a Paolo Banchero around the top of a draft, seeing as Cade, Evan, Jalen, and Suggs would each be a tier or two ahead, this is the way the cookie crumbles, and Paolo does deserve respect in his own right. At 6’10 and 250 pounds, the first impression is that of a bruiser, Carlos Boozer-esque. And he does have that capability in spades! No player is safe when Paolo sets his mind to getting inside the paint, his superior touch and size is an instant mismatch creator. However, that is not what makes him a #1 prospect, instead it is the perimeter playmaking that gives him this particular title. A player that size shouldn’t be able to take the ball out and have such an advanced face up game at this age. His rebound and run equity is equally progressed in its quality. One of his plays against Gonzaga, a pull up 3 pointer that looked quite smooth, particularly caught my attention. I fully expect that to be a consistent weapon in his arsenal, astounding because it is a shot that is frankly unguardable.

However, there are some reasons to be wary. In particular, his tendency to settle on offense. A player of his size and talents should have a predetermined destination before the ball reaches his hands, the rim. That is not always the case, where he insteads takes the easy way out of a contested mid range jumper. Albeit he makes that shot at an efficient enough clip, but its not hard to understand that scoring in the paint is better than the midrange. Of course the lazy label is harsh, and it’s a non zero chance that Coach K is asking him to shoot these shots to improve his draft stock, but it is something to look out for. His passing is solid, not quite at the level I expected based on his high school tape but he is able to hit the open man in transition and can see the openings he manufactures with his gravity and the odds are that is all that is really necessary. I thought there was some point forward potential but I think I was incorrect in that idea.

His defense isn’t quite what I expected coming into the year but he’s not a liability. Sometimes he floats through plays, content with being average, but average is probably good enough. My main problem with him is how his role translates to the next level. He doesn’t provide much off of the ball, on offense or defense. He needs the ball in his hands to be as effective as possible, but the question is, is he capable enough for that role to be feasible and beneficial? Primarily mid range shot creators are falling out of fashion; the efficiency you need to be good enough at the mid range to be productive as a first option is absurd. Combine that with his tendency to settle, lack of great passing, and only ok three point shot, it seems possible that Banchero could be relegated to a first option that isn’t good enough to lead a team to a title, but is too stiff in his role to be a good second or third option

Synopsis:

A burly shot creator, dominant in the post but does most of his operating on the perimeter, ok at distribution and defense. The role is the biggest question for Paolo.

Shades of: 

Splash of Pistons Blake, a cup of Chris Webber, and a pinch of Carmelo Anthony

For a long time, Paolo was looking like THE guy. He hasn’t done anything wrong, but others have clearly overtaken him. After more scouting, he has given me a few minor concerns. I still love his game as is told by his placing on this big board. He doesn't have the type of defense that I would want as my main guy. This doesn't mean that he can't dominate on offense and be a #1 option, it just means that he needs the right team around him. Banchero is a big offensive minded power forward. He has a super smooth midrange jumper that he utilizes often. He can pretty much do anything he wants with his jumper. He can go right, left, spin, fadeaway, or just straight fake it. Right now, he isn’t an elite 3 point shooter, but he is posting solid numbers. With time, he will definitely expand his range farther. His big frame and muscle allow him to bully defenders around the rim. He has solid athleticism for his size, and uses his jump to get above the rim. He loves to post up, and then use his size to finish with a floater or layup. He has soft hands and can easily slice and dice around the basket. He is a solid passer and has excellent court vision. Paolo spaces the floor well and can shoot from anywhere on the court. Playing for a loaded Duke team, he probably hasn’t gotten quite the same opportunities as some other top prospects. On the rebuilding team that he ends of on, his creativity will really shine.

Comparison: Jayson Tatum

Projected Draft Range: 3

Best Team Fits: Portland, Detroit, OKC

Height 6’10

Weight 250 lbs

Wingspan 7’2

DOB 11/12/02 (Draft Age: 19)

Pre-Draft Team Duke Blue Devils

Offense

• Combination of size and speed could be deadly.

• An absolute handful near the rim and getting downhill to the cup especially in transition.

• Working on a being a balanced shot taker - Attacking & Jumpers.

• Great potential as a playmaker out of the post and elbow.

• Ability to grab and go as a rebounder.

• Impressive handle, growing bag of combo moves off dribble to pull up.

• Enjoys passing and wants to be great at this skill. Great vision and upside playmaking for others while operating inside 15.

• Excellent short and mid-range game with the body to consistently dominate here.

• Room to improve as a perimeter shooter. In a very workable place, great shooting base.

• Still improving sense of when and when not to be aggressive.

Defense

• Potential versatility to guard 1-5, huge upside.

• Effort is a question. Needs to prove commitment and engagement on this side of the ball.

• Should be a menace on both sides of the ball.

• Defensive awareness and inability to play the ball instead of man were areas that need to be cleaned up to be a championship catalyst.

Swing Factors

• Defensive ability/effort - Paolo is one of the true potential franchise centerpieces in this draft. Championship catalysts are two-way players with very few exceptions. In order to fit the bill Paolo will need to quiet any concerns of defensive effort and awareness in his first few years.

• Perimeter Shooting - Like most prospects who are looking to fully unlock their potential Paolo needs to be a respected perimeter shooter. If he does this he will be a truly special three-level scorer. Pair this with his playmaking upside and he becomes virtually impossible to gameplan for.

Role

• A large multi-skilled offensive talent who can draw tons of attention and be anchor of an offensive game plan.

• LOW:

• A starting forward who is a weapon scoring around the bucket and in the mid-range, but leaves more to be desired as a shooter and defender.

• HIGH:

• A catalyst of great NBA teams Paolo becomes an All-NBA type player as a three level scorer, a transition menace and versatile defender.

I love Paolo’s potential. I see someone who can score from all 3 levels, and defend 3-5. Especially with his insane size/athleticism combo. He reminds me of like a bigger Pascal Siakam almost.

Ranking Scale:

Athleticism: 7/8

3pt shot: 6/10

Finishing: 9/10

Handle: 9/10

Playmaking: 5/8

Defensive Versatility: 7/10

Defensive Positioning: 6/8

Rebounding: 5/6

NBA Fit: 7/10

Total Score: 61/80

Tier 1

Floor: Secondary scoring/playmaking starter

Bullseye: fringe all-star, high volume and usage scorer/offensive initiator

Ceiling: multiple time All star, perennial top 15 scorer in NBA

OFFENSE

Pass - Grade: 87

Notes: Banchero is an elite passer for his position, and a great passer in general. Banchero is a great outlet passer, and a phenomenal passer off the bounce. He has tremendous feel as a passer. Panchero runs the break and throws lobs in transition, hits open shooters off the drive and out of the post, and hits guys in positions to score. His passing versatility was limited at Duke, and there are way more situations where his passing can be utilized than we've such as on the short in PnR, out of DHOs, and as a PnR ball handler himself. Banchero's ability to hit cutters and shooters once he has already began his drive or even left his feet is very impressive. Paolo is a good passer out doubles and stunts, and welcomes the help because of this. Paolo can fire off passes with either hand. Paolo is not a very good passer within the flow of an offense. When there are open players with a scoring opportunity Paolo finds them with grace, but his passing does typically does not benefit the fluidity of an offense directly. Banchero struggles to pass within the flow of an offense, but this stems from ball stopping and movement issues more so than Banchero's ability as a passer. Banchero also was turnover prone, often trying to force passes through tight windows or throwing an errant pass after being forced into picking up his dribble.

Dribble - Grade: 88

Notes: Banchero's an elite ball handler for his size. He is incredibly fluid, and has real shiftiness and shake. Handle is under control, and he is poised even when going full speed in transition. Has legitimate guard skills, and has a deep bag of open court moves highlighted by hesitations, tweens, crosses, and behind the backs. His handle is incredibly smooth, and it's paired with elite footwork. His body movement, handle, and footwork are perfectly aligned resulted in beautiful displays of open floor ball-handling and perfectly coordinated drives. Loves to dribble into post-ups. He's going to thrive bringing the ball up in the NBA, and will be able to get to the rim or post with ease. Thrives as a transition ball-handler. While his handle is very fluid, it doesn't create much space for him. His handle functions more so to get him to his spot to shoot over a defender, rather than his handle actually creating the space. Loves to show off his handle with unnecessarily long size-ups, often resulting in his teammates to ball watch. Has a really good functional handle, allowing him to get to his spots. His handle thrives in the open floor and in 1 on 1 situations, but struggles when a second defender is shown.

3pt shooting - Grade: 74

Notes: 33.8% on just 3.3 attempts per game. Volume needs to increase at next level, along with consistency. Mechanics and fluidity waiver too much. There are times where his shot is one fluid motion, and others where there is a small hitch and it's a 2 step shot. Confidence level clearly waived too. Shot it best from the corners, but did so on low volume. Banchero shot it just 73% the line this season too. Banchero has good touch, but it's not enough to confidently project him as a shooter. It's likely Banchero's shooting follows the same pattern as it has throughout his career - inconsistency across the board. Banchero should be at a place where he takes all the open he catch and shoot looks he gets, and he showed a willingness to take pull-up threes as well. Banchero is consistently square to the basket on his attempts, and his form is not broken even though it is inconsistent. Banchero has proven there is a legitimate possibility he becomes a solid 3 point shooter in the NBA, but not enough so to project it.

Mid-range shooting - Grade: 85

Notes: Banchero is a good mid-range shooter, and takes mid-range attempts at a high volume. Banchero shot 45% on long twos this season, many of which were off the dribble. This provides more hope that Banchero may be able to extend his range. Banchero shoots mid-range out of isolations, and when facing up out of the post. Also has a really nice post-fade. Banchero took mid-range shots at a high clip from all areas of the floor, it is a big and solidified part of his offensive portfolio. Often settles for the mid-range when the defense makes it difficult to get a paint touch. Banchero has a habbit of unnecessarily picking up his dribble in the mid-range area, and will often force up a bad shot when this occurs. Banchero is a good mid-range shooter, but often has poor shot selection from this area of the floor. Banchero should be taking mid-range shots, but needs to cut the low-percentage contested fade out.

Finishing - Grade: 88

Notes: Banchero shot 64% at the rim this season. Banchero is a great post player, having a blend of high level strength and touch paired with elite footwork. Banchero has a great blend of finesse and strength on finishes. Is able to finish off one or two, and is always poised in his gather and explosion to the rim. His gathers are very impressive, as he methodically avoids or creates contact depending on the matchup/situation. He is great at decelerating on downhill finishes, something that will be very valuable in the NBA. Can't really finish with his left, will force a right hand finish if needed.

Off-ball playmaking - Grade: 68

Notes: Banchero's off ball presence is poor. Banchero is often ball watching if he's not directly involved in an action. Is inconsistent in his screen setting. His inconsistent shot prohibits him from being a true spacer. He's an opportunistic cutter and flasher, but doesn't cut just to cut. Can stagnate the offense when the ball is not in his hands. Banchero is ineffective without the ball in his hands for the most part.

Offensive rebounding - Grade: 82

Notes: Banchero is a solid offensive rebounder, and looks like a great offensive rebounder at times. His coordination and positioning are good, but his motor waivers preventing him from being a consistently good offensive rebounder. Is great at put-backs when he does get the board.

Offensive Summary: 90

Banchero's offensive arsenal combined with his size is incredibly rare, and is tailer-made for today's NBA. As a scorer he has shown an ability to dropstep, spin right and left, flashed step back/pull up/C&S 3s, post fade on either block in both directions, floater, euro step, finish lobs, and attack closeouts. With that being said, what Banchero did best and the most at Duke will not at be what is asked of him in the NBA. Banchero lived in the mid-range and the post, which has to change. Those areas can still be staples of his game, but he his primary form of attack needs to be from the perimeter. He needs to get all the way to the rim more, and he needs to shoot more threes and at a respectable clip. As a passer and playmaker he has shown he can run the break, throw lobs, drive and kick, dump off to the big in dunkers spot, and hit cutters. His offensive ceiling is crazy high and being such a versatile scorer and playmaker at his age, size, and frame is unprecedented. I do have legitimate concerns about Banchero on the offensive end of the floor, aside from his inconsistent jumper and poor shot selection. Maximizing Banchero is not as easy of a task at it may seem. Banchero's tendency to be a 0 on offense when he is not involved in an action and his tendency to stop the ball will be detrimental to his teams' offense natural flow. Banchero has a very long way to go as a team offensive player. Banchero will likely get less post touches in the NBA than in college, and there is a good chance he is stuck in the corner if he's not screening or handling the ball. Banchero has no role player habits on the offensive end, which needs to change if he is going to contribute to winning. Even if Banchero is given the keys to the offense, has a crazy high usage rate, and is the primary initiator of a team his inability to play within a team offense will show in close and competitive games. These issues that young Rudy Gay, Carmelo, Jeff Green, Julius Randle and other high post ball dominant players have struggled with are the exact issues that will handicap Banchero. Banchero has great vision but that does not mean he has a great IQ. His shot selection combined with his time-per-touch may result in his teammates ball watching sooner rather than later. Banchero not being a good C&S three point shooter yet and not moving without the ball are serious issues. The talent and unteachable traits are there, and with his advanced handle and passing ability there is more enough to value Banchero as an elite prospect who can change a franchise overnight. While he may change a franchise overnight, I believe there will be a longer transition to winning basketball with Banchero than other similar prospects of his stature. Look for Banchero to be 15 & 7 & 3 year 1 at worst.

Defense

Engagement - Grade: 63

Notes: Banchero's key issue on defense is engagement. His engagement was very poor for the large majority of the season. It did a full 180 in close and big games, showing he is capable of being fully locked in on that end of the floor. Banchero's conditioning and sweat condition may be contributing factors to this, but Banchero's motor has never been consistently good either. Banchero's defensive engagement is a major issue and there is no reason to believe this will magically turn around in the NBA. However, with a good structure/system/coaching this is definitely fixable over time.

Containment - Grade: 83

Notes: Banchero is a very capable 1 on 1 defender on the perimeter and in the post. Banchero has respectable lateral movement, great core strength, and a good center of gravity. He is good at contesting jump shots on the perimeter in isolation situations. Good at cutting off guards on drives to the rim at the last second. Has a knack for showing and taking away driving lanes. Good at forcing guys into help or to their weak hand. Doesn't bite on hesitations and dribble moves often. Does struggle to stay with the super quick and shifty guards, but is still solid at making them settle for jumpers even when he gets beat. Much, much better at defender on switches than closeouts. Good north-south defender, struggles more defending east- west. Should be able to be a plus in a switchable scheme.

Team Defense - Grade: 74

Notes: Grading Banchero in this area is somewhat difficult since he has shown the ability to be a really good team defender, but ultimately was far too inconsistent to give him the benefit of the doubt. Definitely is not a 50/50 ball, sacrifice your body guy in a normal regular season. With the monotony that the NBA regular season can present, I have major concerns about Banchero's ability to hold his own as a team defender in the NBA. There were many times where Banchero just wouldn't rotate from the weak side, and would half-ass contests and closeouts on rotations to the perimeter. Lost track of his man on a regular basis. May struggle as a communicator on defense too.

Rim Protection - Grade: 76

Notes: When Banchero actually rotated to contest shots at the rim, he was actually very effective. He does a great job at staying vertical, and has really good timing on his contests. He showed the ability to swallow up drives completely as the rotating rim protector. This was something that did not happen on a regular basis because of his engagement issues, but he definitely showed the ability to be a really good help rim protector at times. Almost averaged a block a game, usually getting at least from isolation or rotating as the help. He is really good at staying on top of the defender in the paint. When engaged, his rim protection ability is very similar to Jabari Smith - vertical, absorbs contact, swallows players, forces uncomfortable angles, and is very physical. The fact that he has proven the ability to do this is very encouraging.

Playmaking - Grade: 85

Notes: Banchero averaged 2 stocks a game. Banchero has great timing on his reaches, and is a pretty good gambler in the passing lanes. Has good timing on his contests often resulting in blocks. If Banchero was able to be active and engaged more, he could really be a stocks machine.

Versatility - Grade: 77

Notes: Banchero can't play the 5 and is a poor PnR defender as of now, so that limits his defensive versatility. He should start by guarding 4s exclusively since he has such a big learning curve for team defense, but I expect him to hold his own on switches at a solid rate.

Defensive Rebounding - Grade: 83

Notes: If Banchero had a consistent motor, he would be a monster rebounder. His coordination and strength are elite, and he is able to gain solid positioning on a very high percentage of his boxouts. He crashes at a solid rate, even though the substance of his crashes waivers. Banchero doesn't struggle to keep guys behind him, and is a overall a very solid rebounder.

Defensive Summary: 76

Notes: Banchero is not by any means a broken defender. He has proven he has the ability to hold his own on switches, be a good help defender and rotating rim protector, has shown he has off-ball awareness, has displayed coordinated physicality, and that he can pile up stocks. While he can do all of these things on defense, he often doesn't. The reasons for that may be conditioning, his sweat syndrome, offensive load, in-game load management, inconsistent attentiveness and activity, and lack of a consistent motor. His game to game defense is almost certainly going to waiver, but it is likely that he shows a solid amount of flashes early on as well. The fact that Banchero has already proven he has the capabilities to potentially be a plus on defense is very important and provides a substantial amount of hope for what he will be able to do on the defensive end in the NBA. It is going to be a huge uphill battle to get him near a consistent level, and it is something that is going to require constant attention and reinforcement from his coaching staff along with significant strides in his stamina and conditioning. Banchero played 33 mpg at Duke, in a slow paced offense and in a defense that required him to move and be active much less than an NBA defense will. In an 82 game season with a quick pace and more movement required from him on defense, it is likely he will have a very rough first year on defense. His usage rate will most likely be lower than it was at Duke, but he is assured to be a significant part of his team's offense regardless. It is difficult to imagine Banchero being able to handle a large offensive load and being a consistent defender throughout a NBA playoff series. Banchero will also only be just 19 at the start of his rookie year, and there is a pretty solid chance he gets to where he needs to be even if it takes him 5+ years (where he will only be 24). Banchero's defense has real, legitimate concerns but the fact he's proven to be more than capable on that side of the ball provides hope when projecting his defensive ceiling. Banchero's ceiling/floor on defense is a very wide range, and his role/system/team/staff will play an enormous factor in his defensive production. Wiggins was a much better defender in college than Banchero, but the defensive 180 Wiggins made from Minny to GSW is one that could be telling of Banchero's defensive future. Wiggins always had the physical and mental capabilities of being a good defender, but was in the wrong system/culture and had too large of an offensive load. In GSW, Wiggins role and system were perfect for him to thrive as a defender along with having a great staff/team around him. Banchero's in a very similar boat that Wiggins was in, and the team that selects him needs to plan around that accordingly.

Measurables: 93

No official combine measurements.

Height: 6'10

Weight: 250

Wingspan: 7'0.5

Great frame

Functional Athleticism: 86

Great mobility for size

Great open court speed

Solid lateral movement

Solid explosiveness

Ok vertical burst

1st a bit by default. Of the players at the top of the class he's probably the only one with legit 1st scoring option potential. Add his playmaking skills to it and you get the most worthy player of the top spot. Some concerns about his 3pt shooting, him becoming a mid range chucker and his defense tho.

Best fits: Orlando, Houston

Paolo Banchero is a difficult player to judge. He has an NBA ready body at 6’10 113kg and is probably the most polished offensive player in the draft while being solid defensively. He’s shown leadership qualities with this Duke team as he’s led them (admittedly with a great roster and possibly the best coach in college ball) to the final four and as of now I’d pick that Duke team to win it all.

As I said, Paolo is undoubtedly the best offensive prospect in this class. He is an elite scorer at all three levels. He possesses a smooth jumper and great inside finishing skills. He takes a few too many contested midranges and needs to work on his overall shot selection but even with some of those bad shots he is still pretty efficient with 48-33-73 splits. He has sneakily good playmaking instincts and dishes out 3.2 assists a game for Duke, though like most young players, he needs to limit the turnovers.

He’s solid defensively and has uses his big frame to stop most big men inside, which I think will translate well into the NBA. Despite his size and weight, he has the speed to guard 2.5-5 at a good level. He has the physical tools to become a great defender, now it’s a matter of wether he has the mental tools puts the effort in on that end.

OVERVIEW: I think Banchero will come in and average at least 15 a game straight away, that’s a given. Scoring is his forte. His success in the league depends on wether or not the other parts of his game improve to a high level. A big question mark with Paolo was wether or not his game would translate to winning basketball games. At this point, with the way Duke is going in the tournament, I think it will and he will have a great career.

COMPARISON: Melo, Jayson Tatum

Age: 19

Paolo Banchero has been great this year for the Duke Blue Devils, leading Coach K’s squad to the #2 seed in March Madness where they lost to Texas Tech in the Sweet 16 (👀). He is very good in the paint with great touch. He actually does have pretty good playmaking int he perimeter and is a nice post player. His shot is quite smooth, but he has a humble percentage (30%). His mid-range is nice but he settles on offense too much. He is also extremely ball dominant, completely ineffective when off-ball. He also has to be the number one option to succeed, I don’t see him being a number 2 option at the nezt level. However, it’s not his offense that’s holding him back; it’s his defense. His frame is big and burly, with pretty good quickness, so he has the physical tools to succeed. However, he zones out occasionally and is kinda average. His off-ball defense is also bad. I’m not sure what his role will be, if he can improve decision making he could be a number one option on a bad team. However, a borderline number one option with average defense isn’t a great ceiling which is why he ain’t very high on this big board.