Physical gifts are a lot, but not everything

Every time we hear about an uber-athletic 6'5" shooting guard with a near-7' wingspan, our imagination ignites. The comparison runs through our heads to some of the greatest players to ever play this game: Michael, Kobe, and lately SGA, three of the most gifted scorers and exciting players the game has ever seen. When you add a 47" vertical jump and crazy dunk highlights, our hearts and minds fall into sync. This is the player we’ve all been waiting for.

Setting aside the jumping ability for a moment, Shae is hardly the only player who fits these measurements. Some examples include greats like Jalen Brown and Jalen Williams, but also Moses Moody, our very own Matisse Thybulle, and even Ryan Rupert, who is impressively a 6'7" shooting guard with a 7'3" wingspan. And while Sharpe’s bounce is undeniably special, we can all remember the promise of Jericho Sims, a 6'10", 7'3" forward with a 47" vertical, who is now barely a rotation player on an unimpressive Bucks team.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Clearly, Sharpe is closer to the two Jalens than to the second group. He has a lightning-quick first step, finishes well at the rim, and draws fouls on drives at a rate comparable to Deni Avdija (per drive), with a 10.5% foul rate. He currently ranks 7th in the league in AND-1s, behind five All-NBA players and Deni. His ball handling has also improved significantly and is now legitimately good, especially for his age.

If you ask most fans about Sharpe’s biggest weakness, they’ll probably point to his shooting. Statistically, that’s true. He’s below league average from any distance outside three feet. But I’d argue that shooting is neither his biggest weakness nor a major concern long-term. Shooting is one of the most improvable skills in the NBA, and Sharpe’s struggles stem largely from shot selection. He ranks 4th in the league in attempts taken while “very tightly” guarded (0–2 feet) and is also a top-20 player in pull-up attempts. Both factors significantly depress efficiency.

The second most common answer would be defense. Again, this is technically correct but incomplete. Sharpe is not a good defender despite possessing two of the four most important defensive traits at a high level: athleticism and length. The third, hustle, can be improved. But the fourth, and most limiting, is decision-making. That is the skill holding him back from true greatness.

Call it basketball IQ or processing speed. Knowing when to shoot, when to pass, when to attack, and when to slow the game down. Even smaller decisions, when to foul or when to gamble for a steal, may seem insignificant in isolation, but when aggregated, they often decide games.

One clear manifestation of this is Sharpe’s shot selection. He routinely takes difficult shots without a clear advantage. For comparison, Avdija draws roughly 50% more defensive attention according to the NBA’s Gravity metric, yet consistently takes better shots. Shot quality, however, isn’t even the biggest outlier. Among all NBA guards playing at least 15 minutes in 15 games, Sharpe ranks dead last in assist-to-turnover ratio. This also shows up in the on/off numbers. Among Portland’s starters, Sharpe is last at +1.2, while Avdija sits at +11.

So What Is His Ceiling?

Unfortunately, basketball IQ, like athleticism, is closer to a God-given trait than a fully learnable skill. That said, it’s also difficult to measure, and it’s possible Sharpe has more of it than he’s shown so far. With the right coaching, veterans, and experience, he can become a better decision-maker, even if never an elite one.

There is, however, room for optimism. Sharpe entered the league extremely young, without a full college season, and has been asked to shoulder real offensive responsibility early. Players in that situation often fail loudly before the game slows down for them. His improved handle, ability to draw contact, and occasional off-ball reads suggest he may still be developing the mental side of the game. Even marginal gains in decision-making, especially within a more structured environment, could significantly raise his impact.

The best example of a great player limited by decision-making is Russell Westbrook, one of the most explosive athletes in NBA history. The 2017 MVP was also an elite ball handler, passer, and slasher. Yet he was never the best player on a true contender, and not by coincidence. Teams need chaos at times, but in crunch time they need reliability.

That’s where Sharpe likely tops out. He probably won’t be the best player on a contender. But if he puts in the work and sharpens his decision-making, shooting, and defense, he could become an elite second option, someone in the mold of Bradley Beal or Zach LaVine. And if everything breaks right, maybe even Brandon Roy.