you know what's funny? for the last few years, NBA fans have sold themselves on a top prospect in that year's draft class who, every time, is branded as "the closest thing we have ever seen to KD." even funnier, those arguments weren't totally wrong. first it was Evan Mobley. the year after it was Chet Holmgren, and a little bit of Jabari Smith too. the year after that, in a different but still familliar way, it was Wemby. and before you freak out, people were generally correct- year for year, those guys were physically some of the closest likenesses we will ever get to the god that is Kevin Durant. this year is no different, with Rutgers' Ace Bailey.

the crazy thing about Ace is that, physically, he truly is the closest thing we've seen to KD to date. the fluidity at his size and frame is legitimately rivaled by practically no other modern prospect I have ever seen, EVER. somehow, at the same time, he's also a significantly worse prospect than those guys we listed above. so what gives?

let me make two things clear before I continue- there will never be another Kevin Durant. that much is obviously true, so don't get in my comments section about that. and two: I love Ace Bailey. this isn't a diss article. he's an incredibly exciting young man who does stuff I can't believe. I'm writing this just after his game against Indiana, where a Harper-less Rutgers tasked Ace with carrying the offensive load, and he delivered with an astonishing 39 points on 55%, with only 12 of those points coming from deep. that said, he's made it less than easy for draft scouts to call him the number one overall pick, if even the number two.

Ace appears to be a short 6'10, and much closer to 6'9 than he does 6'11, let alone 7 feet. that is one huge difference (although he could potentially grow). Mobley, Chet, Jabari, and obviously Wemby, were all really, really big dudes even at their prospect ages. but pound for pound, I'm still not sure I've seen the physical precision that Ace has by any of those guys or by anyone else. as far as super tall players go, he has a center of gravity that looks more like a guard's. his contact balance is excellent for his height and weight. he has a great second leap. he's a mystery box in triple threat, with his ability to rise up over you for the shot, or legitimately beat you off the dribble as a mega athlete. the visage of Kevin Durant in this kid is more convincing than ever. but underneath every exciting aspect of his game, concrete production begs to differ.

Ace has one of the most pronounced splits in assisted-unassisted buckets we've ever seen, and turns the ball over at an absurd rate given his usage and how short his stints with the ball are. he's struggling to convert a lot of his looks within the arc, and just so often ends up taking shots that are much more difficult than what most team offenses are trying to achieve. despite being known as an unreal shotmaker, he's gained a bit of reputation to miss wide open shots, and is shooting 62% from the free throw line, which is a metric often used for measuring a player's basic shooting ability. for someone with such effortless finesse on the court, his offense can sometimes feel just the opposite: so effortful and difficult that it's headspinning.

i didn't write this to influence his draft stock one way or another. i am just genuinely curious how an NBA scout should approach evaluating a player so polarizing. certainly, pro player comparisons won't do. we've already established the Kevin Durant thing is a massive can of worms. (although I will say, I'm a much bigger fan of Tracy McGrady as a comp... let that marinate.)

the team Ace ends up with will determine so much about his career, and i'm rooting for him heavily. but even this is complicated. on one hand, i want him to end up on a team like Brooklyn, where he'll be allowed to find himself on a blank canvas basketball team. AND YET, i would also like to see him go to a team like New Orleans, where his touches will be so heavily monitored that it'll force him to cut the fat off of his game and become a simpler, more efficient player. I'm telling you man... this kid is an absolute paradox. there's just so much to think about. this way or that way, definitely wishing for the best for him. one of the most interesting prospects i've ever evaluated.

as always, I appreciate the read. would love to hear thoughts about this, or anything at all, really. be well homies