Only six players 7' 1" or taller have ever entered the NBA draft after scoring at least 750 points in a college season or averaging over 38 PPG in a foreign league:
7' 3" 299-lb. Zach Edey with 983 points (to be selected in the 2024 draft)
7' 6" 310-lb. Yao Ming 38.9 PPG in Chinese league (#1 in the 2002 draft)
7' 1" 325-lb. Shaquille O'Neal with 774 points (#1 in the 1992 draft)
7' 1" 235-lb. David Robinson with 903 points (#1 in the 1987 draft)
7' 2" 225-lb. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar with 870 points (#1 in the 1969 draft)
7' 1" 275-lb. Wilt Chamberlain with 800 points (#1 in the 1959 draft)
Note: weights shown are draft weights; Robinson won his titles at 250 lbs. and Wilt won his title in LA at 310-325 lbs.
Yet we keep hearing from all the wise-guys like Gilbert Arenas how Edey would have been a #1 pick even just 15 years ago, but not today because:
"the game has changed"
nobody posts up anymore
bigger centers like Rudy and Brook without elite close-out speed get "hunted" by opposing offenses and exploited in the PnR
What if the only reason the game appears to have changed is because it's been more than 10 years now since we've had anyone like this in the league, after a relatively long unbroken streak from Wilt to Kareem to Robinson to Shaq to Yao?
What if such a player will actually dominate more in today's league because they will be going up against a league of mostly undersized big men who are all optimized for guarding the perimeter?
I think everyone has just plain forgotten how dominant such a player can actually be, and is simply drunk on the meta-game kool aid that says your big man has to shoot 3s to even be relevant in the offense. Because the problem with these kinds of players is that you either let them score or you have to foul them, in which case they probably score anyway and get a +1. They get your whole team in foul trouble, especially the bigs.
Meanwhile the problem with the Rudy Goberts of the world is that they do not offer sufficient scoring to offset their exploitable defense in a deep playoff run. We all saw the reaction of Minnesota's bench when Rudy actually hits a shot in the playoffs against Dallas: they know if he even makes a few buckets, their chance of winning just skyrocketed.
But what if Rudy Gobert was reliably putting up 25-30 PPG in the playoffs instead of 12-15? What if he was hitting 10-15% more of his free throws? All while being 2-3" taller and 40 lbs. heavier?
Zach Edey obviously does not fall on the faster side of the bell curve of big man speed or agility, but he is clearly also not at the far other end like the Bobans and Tacko Falls of the world, at least not at this point in his career if his recent performances and combine stats are any indication. While no one who doubts Edey's potential will be convinced by combine numbers that he's not a snail, on the other hand, who is prepared to say that he'll be the first player in the 7' 1" and taller dominant scorer mold NOT to be a Hall of Famer?
People will say Edey's scoring in college won't translate to the league because he'll be going up against NBA centers, but again, he'd be the first player close to his size in history where it didn't translate. Does anyone think that college players today are overall worse defenders than the college players faced by Shaq, Robinson, Kareem, or Wilt — let alone, the Chinese-league players Yao faced? Is that a hill you'll die on?
We could also look at win shares where Edey posted 10.5 win shares in his last season while outscoring the best seasons from other players with 9.9 win shares such as Stephen Curry and Tim Duncan. There've been some analyses posted on Reddit in this vein, discussing Edey's ability to impact winning basketball, but again all anyone can say is how it won't translate to the league, he'll just be a role-player, etc.
But will anyone now tell us that the games of Wilt, Shaq, Robinson, Kareem, and Yao also wouldn't translate to today's league? I'm sure at least one person will, but is that a person you'd want making decisions for an NBA franchise in the draft?