With the NBA Draft being tonight, I figured there was no better time to post my annual my guys list. This is a list of guys who I am higher on and/or am more confident in than consensus. Be sure an let me know your thoughts and opinions as I’d love to talk some draft with you all!
———————————————————————————
Egor Demin
———————————————————————————
6’9 199 lbs
10.2 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 5.5 APG, and 1.2 SPG
41.2/27.3/69.5 shooting splits
67.4% at the rim and 35.1% on non rim 2’s
1.9 ast/to
Egor Demin has been one of my favorite players in this class from the first time I watched him play. At a legit 6’9, he has fantastic size for a PG. This size also gives him a greater margin for error as even if he doesn’t make it as a PG, he still has the size to be a wing or even a small ball forward. Unlike some guys his size, he also has excellent mobility.
His best skill is his playmaking. Not only can he make the simple reads, but he also routinely makes difficult reads that create easy looks for his teammates. This skill is one that I think is extremely valuable as there are very few guys who truly can pass people open. His ability to attack and finish at the rim forces the defense to have to guard him which is what opens up his ability as a playmaker.
Many people are scared off of Demin due to his three point percentage. While I’ll agree that it is far from being good enough, I also don’t think his percentage tells the whole story. I would argue that Demin is not a bad three point shooter, but that he is just a streaky one right now. He attempted just under 5 threes per game. That is almost exactly half of his total shot attempts. He also made more than one three in 10 of their 33 games. BYU was a good team last season so ask yourself, would they let him shoot that many threes if they didn’t think he’d make them? I believe that his form changing at times could be largely at fault for this. When his form looks good, his shot is money. When little things get out of whack, he starts to miss. To me, that is something that can easily be fixed with more reps.
To conclude, Demin is one of the most high upside players in this entire class. I’d even argue that he has a deceptively high floor. There are some concerns with his game, but I think many of them are easy fixes. I believe the perfect landing spot for him would be to the Jazz with the 5th pick. They would be able to force feed him touches and give him plenty of time to develop.
———————————————————————————
Adou Thiero
———————————————————————————
6’8 218 lbs
15.1 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.9 APG, and 2.3 STOCKs
54.5/25.6/68.6
68% at the rim and 48.8% on non rim 2’s
1.1 ast/to
If you have been on Fanspo for any amount of time, then you have probably heard me talk about Adou Thiero at nauseam. He has been one of my favorite players in all of college basketball since before the start of his Freshman season.
For those of you who are not familiar with him, Adou Thiero was a late bloomer. Going into his Senior year of high school, Adou was being recruited as a PG. Kentucky was in on him due to his upside and the fact that his dad played for Coach Cal at Memphis. After his Freshman season, Adou was 6’6. He continued to grow and now he’s closer to 6’8.
The best trait that Adou has is his defense. Not only does he force tons of turnovers, but he also has the ability to shut down another teams best player. This is importantly because there are lots of good defenders, but very few great ones. Adou is a great one. In addition to being a good defender, Adou can also finish possessions for his team as he’s a good rebounder for his position.
Offensively, Adou’s best trait is his ability to attack and finish at the rim. He uses his size and athleticism well to finish in a variety of ways. His background as a PG shows through as he has much more wiggle and craft at the rim then you see from most forwards. Adou’s ability to attack the basket forces the defense to have to pay him lots of attention. This allows him to show off his passing skills. While he wasn’t a great passer as a PG, that still makes him an above average passer as a forward.
The biggest concern with Adou is his three point shot. This is 100% a valid concern. I do like that his form has improved and became more fluid over the last three seasons. While he isn’t lights out as a FT shooter, I think the fact that he is more than serviceable from there is a good sign in terms of his outlook as a shooter. His impressive 48.8% on non rim 2’s is another good indicator toward him becoming a good shooter.
To conclude, Adou Thiero is one of the best defenders and rim finishers in the class. While he’s not currently a good three point shooter, he has shown many positive shooting inductors. Due to the importance of elite defenders, I’d be more than comfortable taking him in the late lottery or just outside of it. My favorite fit for him is to the Bulls or Hawks if all of the top three bigs are gone.
———————————————————————————
Ryan Kalkbrenner
———————————————————————————
7’2 257 lbs
19.2 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 1.5 APG, and 2.7 BPG
65.3/34.4/68.1 shooting splits
79.5% at the rim and 38.2% on non rim 2’s
1.1 ast/to
Ryan Kalkbrenner has picked up some steam in draft circles as of late, but I’d still contend that he’s valued too low. The reason for that I believe is that people hear a player has a lower ceiling and immediately assumes that means they aren’t good. That couldn’t be farther from the truth. Especially with Kalkbrenner.
Let me start by saying that Kalkbrenner isn’t for every team, but if he lands in the right spot then he could really pop. He is kind of a mix of a throwback and modern day big man. Kalk is a tremendous shot blocker. That is easily his best skill. The problem is that he lacks the foot speed to be on the perimeter which makes him strictly a drop coverage big. That’s not a major issue, but it does require him to go to a team that is okay with defending ball screens that way.
Offensively, the best thing Kalk did at the college level was score in the post. He of course won’t get a ton of post touches in the NBA because that’s not how the game is played at that level. I do think his tremendous rim finishing and feel around the basket will help him be a threat in the P&R as well as on the offensive glass. Unlike many college drop coverage bigs, Kalk can also step out to the three point line and knock down shots if left alone.
To conclude, Ryan Kalkbrenner is one of the most underrated bigs in this class. He isn’t a good fit for every team due to him being strictly a drop coverage big. For teams who are comfortable playing that way though, you would be hard pressed to find many guys better at it. Due to his feel around the basket, shot blocking, rebounding, and ability to stretch the floor I could see him becoming a Brook Lopez esque player. I’d be comfortable drafting Kalk anywhere from the late teens - early twenties on. With Kristaps being traded, the Celtics are on of my favorite fits for him. They will probably have to move up to get him though as I’d be shocked if he made it them at 28.
———————————————————————————
Kam Jones
———————————————————————————
6’4 202 lbs
19.2 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 5.9 APG, and 1.4 SPG
48.3/31.1/64.8 shooting splits
64.1% at the rim and 45% on non rim 2’s
3.2 ast/to
Kam Jones was one of the most popular sleepers last draft cycle, yet somehow a year later he might be even more underrated. Part of this is due to the drop in efficiency he saw this season after having to shoulder a heavier offensive load. Some may find this concerning, but I’m not worried about it in the slightest bit. Jones is projected to be a late first - early second round pick. How many guys picked in that range are asked to shoulder a heavy offensive load? The answer is almost none. I firmly believe that as his role is simplified, his efficiency will go back to where it was previously.
Jones hurt his draft stock slightly by measuring in a little smaller than what many believed him to be. I still believe he can play both guard spots, but even I have to admit that he’ll be slightly undersized at SG.
The sell on Kam Jones is almost entirely based off of his skill and efficiency on the offensive end. There is an argument to be made that he’s the most proven and complete offensive player in this class. He checks every box. Everytime starts with his ability to attack and finish at the rim… this is shown by his excellent 64.1% shooting percentage at the rim. If you can take that away, he can still beat you from the mid range. This is shown by his respectable 45% shooting percentage on non rim 2’s. If you can take that away, he’s probably already passed to an open teammate for a high quality shot. He also rarely turns the ball over. This is shown by his extremely impressive 3.2 ast/to.
The one real knock against Kam Jones this year was his poor shooting from the three point line. This has many concerned that his previous seasons where he shot better from three could be a fluke. This doesn’t concern me in the slightest. Here are his three point percentages for all 4 of his seasons at market… 39.2, 36, 40.6, and 31.1. Which of those do you think is the outlier? To me, it’s clearly this past season.
To conclude, Kam Jones is one of if not the most proven and efficient offensive players in the class. The pace and poise he plays with reminds me a ton of guys like Payton Prichard or Jalen Brunson when they came out of college. In the right spot, I could see Kam Jones being a sneaky rookie of the year candidate due to his experience. I’d be more than comfortable taking Jones anywhere from the mid twenties on. My favorite fit for him would be to a team like the Suns or Clippers who need youth and guard help immediately.
———————————————————————————
Amari Williams
———————————————————————————
7’0 262 lbs
10.9 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 3.2 APG, and 1.2 BPG
56.1/25/62.3 shooting splits
69.3% at the rim and 35.9% on non rim 2’s
1.4 ast/to
There are certain skills that players at each position can have that make them almost impossible to pass up on. One of those skills for big men is playmaking. Coincidentally, that is arguably Amari Williams biggest strength.
Unlike most playmaking big men, Amari Williams is also an excellent defender. Before coming to Kentucky, he was a 3x conference DPOY at Drexel. In the SEC, he was still an impact defender. He has the size and length to hold his own down low and to make an impact as a helpside defender. He also has enough quickness on the perimeter to hold his own against more perimeter oriented bigs.
In addition to being a great defender, Amari Williams is also a tremendous rebounder. This is actually what opens up things offensively for him. Williams has the ability to pull down rebounds and take off in transition. If there are any lapses in your transition defense, either him or a teammate will get an easy look.
Williams is also a tricky cover in the halfcourt. The fact that he is left handed along with his herky jerky style of play allow him to drive past defenders and get to the basket. The one downside is that he is not a threat at all as a shooter. Teams have to pressure him on the perimeter though due to his ability as a playmaker. The way he drives to the basket with almost reckless abandon forces the defense to overreact which once again opens things up for his playmaking. Williams is also constantly a threat on the offensive glass.
To conclude, Amari Williams is one of the most unique prospects in all of the class. His ability to create looks for others and attack from the perimeter despite not being a shooter is extremely rare. If he lands in the right spot, he could be an instant impact player. I’m comfortable taking him anywhere in the second round. My favorite landing spot for him is the Warriors with the 41st pick.