Okay, I look around Spurs spaces lately and I see people doing either one of two things: either they are dooming and glooming regarding the team's losses, or, they are simply giving into resignation. "This team is ahead of their timeline" is the common refrain. It maybe true, but its simply an aphorism. It tells us nothing we don't already know, and it gives us no real direction. Its a surrender, and an excuse to just accept what we are getting now. Truth is, we aren't ahead of schedule; we are where we are because we've got the actual talent on this team to compete here.
The truth is, the team has glaring problems and issues. Some will only be fixed with time, like team chemistry and lack of experience. But others, can only be fixed with marked intervention by the front office and coaching staff. For example, our three point shooting. We knew that was a problem before the season even started. This team just doesn't have three point shooters, and none of our players who don't shoot well from three will fix that this season. Guys like Harper may get there, with time, if they work on it. But that will take years. But what will it take to fix the problem now? Look, people like to say this team is young, but lets be realistic. Wemby wants to win now, and its fair for him to want that, given his talent and this team's collective talent. And, to be frank, we have to consider his future career. Players, with Wemby's physical build, don't tend to have long careers. That's not to say that Wemby will have these issues, but this is something that nobody can overlook. The man is freak of a physical specimen, but he's not unheard of in the NBA. But other players like him in the past have tended to be injury prone and tended to not have long careers. He wants to maximize his career, and San Antonio owes it to him to not waste his career at this juncture. I say this from experience because the Spurs are not the only team I root for.
I am also a New Orleans Pelicans fan, and what has happened to that team breaks my heart. Zion Williamson has never lived up to what we wanted from him. And I'm now convinced he never will. And that front office may be one of the most incompetent bunch of clowns in the league. But, they present an opportunity. They've got two good players that right now are wasted on a mess of a team that isn't going anywhere, and really needs to think rebuild. Those players are Herb Jones and Trey Murphy III. They are the players I'm here to talk about. They are wasted on NOP, but they maybe what the Spurs need right now. Both of them are excellent rotation plus guys. What are "rotation plus", you may ask? Players who would still be "role players" and not stars, but are good enough to swing a team's fortunes on their own. Not enough to be the stars, but enough to be a difference maker on a competing team. Herb is the type of 3-and-D wing that the Spurs need, while Trey is just a great player all around. Both are on longer contracts that fit Wemby's timeline, meaning they will be integral pieces on this team throughout his prime years. Either one would be a great target in free agency. And the Spurs have the assets to swing for either. But, what if the Spurs wanted more? What if they wanted BOTH.
Is it possible? Yes. It is. Is New Orleans willing to trade? Open question, but at this point, I believe they will have no choice, because they are not competitive and they need to think rebuild. But would the Spurs be willing to do it? I think they will, but it will require them to think smartly. So lets consider it.
First off, cap space. What will it actually take to get both on this team? Of course, we want to build around Wemby. The Spurs have made it clear that Castle and Harper are off limits. Fox, too, is probably off limits. They probably want to keep Vassel and Johnson, and Kornet has found a good spot on the rotation. So where does that leave us? Do we still have room here. In fact we do. But who do we trade?
First person: Sochan. I know Sochan is well loved by this fanbase. But the fact is, he ain't playing right now, and it looks like he won't play in the future. He has no place in this rotation. And he's coming up on a contract renewal. Dude has every right to get paid, but right now he's riding the bench instead of working towards that payday. He's probably gone after this year regardless and it makes no sense to just keep him on the bench then let him walk for nothing. NOP will want him because he is a former top pick and his defensive skillset is second to none, even if he isn't the best shooter. He works on their timeline with their other younger guys like Derick Queen, who they are probably going to try to build around. If we aren't going to play him, we should at least turn him into an asset and send him to a team that will appreciate him long term. He also makes more sense than someone like Julian because he's simply a much more valuable asset to move, limiting what NOP could ask for in return (we'll come back to this in a minute). But he alone doesn't get us over the hump financially, so who does?
We need to trade some combination of Kelly Olynyk and Harrison Barnes. I vote we trade both. It makes the most sense financially, as those two alone move enough salary to allow us to bring in both Murphy and Herb. Sending those two salaries doesn't put NOP over financially either, so it works out for them two. We are basically sending like money for like, and meets the NBA's trade rules. So that's salaries matched. Olynynk isn't an important part of this rotation, and Barnes, while a good rotational piece generally, has seen his three point shooting fall off massively recently, and that was the one thing he was better at than most of the roster. Both Herb and Trey are straight upgrades here. But would NOP want them? They don't really match the timeline, even if they would be solid rotational pieces and are on easy one year contracts. But they could still work in this trade. We'll come back to this.
In any trade, what NOP will want is draft picks. They have been downright stupid with their own, so they don't really control any top picks. They need to rebuild, but lack the assets to do so. So they will want picks for Herb and Trey, who are their best assets to trade. The Spurs have the assets to give, but they won't want to gut draft capital. So what will they give? I believe they will have to give two firsts, at least. Anything thing more than that is super star trade territory. We aren't trading for Giannis here; even both Herb and Trey ain't worth that, some would say. But NOP would probably push for more. We might get away with two picks since we are including Sochan, even more so if we don't protect the top pick, but SAS would probably not want to do that.
This comes back to the personnel issue as well. The Pelicans may not value Barnes and Olynyk, so may demand more. However, Barnes and Olynyk are on one year deals. No long term issues for the Pelicans if they don't work out. The Pelicans can extend them, trade them, or let them walk as they need. Less risk for them long term. I figure, in this scenario, however, NOP will ask for three firsts, or, since they are getting Sochan, SAS will negotiate them down to maybe two firsts, plus a pick swap.
What about a three team trade? Bringing in a third team would make this infinitely more complicated. Theoretically, you could structure it so that the third team would be the ones to get Barnes and Olynyk. NOP would get Sochan. They would also get one or two draft picks from SAS: the 2027 Atlanta Hawks first round pick (top-3 protected) and, if necessary, the 2029 SAS first round pick (top-8 protected). If either pick doesn't convey, they become a few seconds instead. Ideally, we only give up the Hawks pick. The third team will either trade a late 1st round pick, if the Spurs were sending two picks, or, if the Spurs only wanted to send the Hawks pick, the third team would have to send a better late-lottery adjacent pick, or a young rotation player that NOP would actually want. This sounds like a more doable, realistic trade that limits the losses of Spurs and the third team, but ensures that NOP gets something back and doesn't feel fleeced. Its a fair trade.
But this all hinges on the key question: who would be the third team? It would have be a competitive team. A team looking to make a playoff run who wants good veteran help. Olynyk and Barnes are fine veteran rotational pieces who could help the right team become a little more competitive. A team willing to part with a younger player who doesn't fit their rotation or higher draft pick they won't be able to develop anyway. Who fits that? Not many teams. The Warriors and the Heat are the best bets. Maybe Kings or Cavaliers. At first I brainstormed the idea and used the Warriors as an example. So, lets run with that.
The Warriors have a team based around Curry and Butler, with Green as their number three. They are in win now mode, due to Curry's timeline. But they aren't optimal. For example, they lack any kind of size. They basically got Draymond playing center and guarding centers. He clearly hates it because he can't bang around with real NBA centers, but he's stuck doing it because they got nobody else. They lack size. They also lack shooting outside Curry, as all their other sharpshooters (Klay, Iquadala, etc.) are gone. Olynyk gives them a real center and Barnes can somewhat help with their shooting issues. The Warriors are an intriguing trade partner because they own all of their own first round picks past 2025: 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, and 2031. Adding Olynyk and Barnes is cheap veteran depth without adding anyone who would block Curry or clog up their own minutes.
The problem is that the Warriors can't take both players without being over the second apron. The Warriors could send Kuminga back to NOP and still get Olynyk. Kuminga doesn't want to be there, the Warriors don't want him there, and NOP can absorb his salary. Sochan would still go to NOP. But this leaves Barnes. The Warriors can't absorb both Olynyk and Barnes, even if they trade Kuminga. So, now what? The Spurs can't keep Barnes as they would be over the first apron. Now, you are left considering a four team trade. A fourth team takes Barnes. The Warriors trade Kuminga, but keep their picks. The fourth team trades a rotational piece or late first to NOP in exchange for taking Barnes. SAS still get Herb and Trey. Works on paper, but the four obvious choices for a veteran like Barnes - Miami, Knicks, Atlanta, and Phoenix - couldn't make the deal work. Miami and the Knicks straight up lack the cap space, while Atlanta and Phoenix would have to send so much salary back to NOP that it would put them over the first apron or even the second. Trying to find a fourth team to make this work would be a pain. However, i found one deal that could make this work financially, and its a four team deal involving the Spurs, Pelicans, Golden State, and the Utah Jazz, which is the deal you see now:
Spurs get: Herb and Trey, plus Matkovic
Pelicans get: Sochan, Kuminga, Georges Niang and Kevin Love (Both from the Jazz)
Warriors get: Olynyk
Jazz get: Barnes, plus one small contract from the Pelicans, so I chose the smallest contact I could
In this deal, the Pelicans get two young players they can make work in a rebuild (Kuminga and Sochan), and two older players on team friendly one year deals, who they can extend or get rid of as necessary. Jazz get a decent shooter in Barnes who can play alongside Markannen and is a good rotational piece, while cutting some salary. Warriors get their center in Olynyk. I had the Pelicans send out two more players as well, because otherwise, they would have to wave two players to stay within roster limits. The two additional players I send out are basically being send out because their contracts are small, and the Spurs and Jazz can absorb the salary hit with no issues, but those two additional trades aren't necessary to make this work. You don't se it here, but in this deal, the Pelicans still get two protected firsts from the Spurs, the 2027 and 2029 firsts, basically to ensure that they have something to build on. It works, on paper.
So to summarize: a two team deal is easiest. It works with just SAS and NOP trading players, but NOP may demand more from the Spurs to make it work. A three team deal is probably hard to manage, since there is a disconcerting lack of contenders who could swing for both Barnes and Olynyk (just for fun, I managed to make three team deal involving Atlanta that sent Trae Young to the Pelicans, you know, for the shiggles). A four team deal does work, but requires some finagling to make it happen. But its doable salary wise, and it would limit the amount of draft capital the Spurs would have to give up to make a trade happen, and that's the trade you see now. What do you think?