Dream Fits: Nets, 76ers, Cavaliers

Overall Grade: 62.36

Projected Position: SF/PF

Strengths:

• Unique ability to make highly contested shots using his length & elevation

• Good arm usage to create space & get in position to recieve post-up looks

• Good screen navigation positioning himself well to change speeds defending drives

• Good burst off flare screens & a quick shot motion along with good elevation, highly translatable

• Low & comfortable handle

• Good hustle for loose balls

• Tries to be physical in the paint with general success though still gets overpowered by bigger players

• Good vision & pass accuracy

• Good ball security on step throughs & traffic splits

• Good midrange game & use of baseline fadeaway

• Good timing & length usage on rebounds & tips

• Uses his length well to deny passes on traps

• Uses his arms well to generate turnovers when pressing up

• Good hustle in transition d using his length to get chasedown blocks

• Stays composed when trapped & waits until open dribble or pass is available

• Shows flashes of athletic finishing

• Comfortable movement shooter

Weaknesses:

• Unable to create space with his handle with regularity

• Poor ball security when gathering dribble on drives

• One-dimensional drives with limited ability to adjust to defenders & often forcing into traffic

• Poor strength on screens

• Drops too far defensively & makes a lot of unnesseccary help decisions in the paint

• Takes a lot of low quality contested looks that are off-platform missing by wide margins

• Gets pushed out of bounds on baseline drives trying to force a move

Last Ranking: 3

Projected NBA rookie role: Immediate shot-creating wing with 2-way abilities

Projected NBA position: Wing

Projected Rookie Statline (Pts, Reb, Ast, Blk/Stl): 17, 4, 1.5, 1.5 (Stl)

Strengths: Insane shot taking/making ability for his age and level, Great Athlete, Potential guard abilities, Long Arms on defensive side

Weakness: Slim frame, Raw/inconcistent defender, Questionable shot diet

Shades of/comp: Brandon Miller, Brandon Boston, Rudy Gay

Best outcome: 1st Option on Finals team with Great Shotmaking ability, Fills out body, Athleticsm and frame makes him a high level defender, Starts passing.

mid outcome: One way-ish offensive player with defensive liabilites and tunnell vision

worst outcome: Shot making doesnt translate to NBA level, negative defensive asset, stil doesnt pass

Ace Bailey seems like a really solid all-star potential foward that can fit into any team.

His scoring ability to find space is astonishing for any team to give them their offensive stability. His passing does let him down. Only 0.6 Assists per game for a SF is very low. He does make up for it with his scoring. He is currently averaging 18 7 and 1 this season. If any teams is in needing of a prolific scorer who can run the court and get boards and points is the right choice to go

Current Ranking: 3

Rating: B+

Pros:

• Moving Jumper

  • This man does not miss any pull up, spin move, moving middy, take it from three if you want, fading away. Buddy does not miss and that just raw ability which is what makes top 5 picks in a draft. if you show raw shot making ability, it will probably translate well. it may be a little more inconsistent at an NBA level, but if you watch how he gets to his moves, his size is what allows him to make those shots. and size translates look at how KD gets his shots. Im very confident in this translating to the NBA level. Hopefully though we can get him to a point where he doesn't have to rely on finding that moving jumper to provide on ball offence and we can get him better looks at the basket or find more separation.

• Off ball movement

  • good footwork, gets to his spot, makes catch and shoot opportunities. These are the things you see from top wings in the NBA. Being able to play off ball is something extremely valuable when building a roster around a guy. That's how he should primarily be used at the NBA level, off ball, you don't want to make him stress to much about taking tons of tough shots, you want to try supply him the easy ones.

• Footwork

  • Uses his long legs to slide around on defence and follow his man, moves well to find his spots. Really fluid doesn't do anything extra but gets to his spots on offence and stays with his man on defence. With those base skill sets and his size he can expand very easily on is off ball offence and his on ball defence. And I think that's something we have been seeing from Ace this year, and that's using his feet to find open shots off Dylan Harpers play and passing. Getting reps in with a creative, ball dominant guard is really useful to me since I like to see him in a similar role to how I would play him if I was an NBA coach.

Cons:

• Game IQ

  • Definitely a raw prospect, got the physical and shot making attributes but he doesn't seem to be able to mentally make it all work, wether that's just his on ball decisions or how his hands are moving on defence, he has some very worrying problems. He needs to be smarter with his handle, if he should pass earlier or take on the guy pressing up on him, he has gave up quite a few turnovers from these decision. His timing on his close out have costed multiple 3 point fouls on defence and fouling the jump shooter. something he has to brush up on. And finally the most worrying thing is his shot decisions and diet. Being able to make tough shots is great and it will translate but we want to see him get to the basket and drive harder. it should be easier for a guy with his size to get to the cup but he doesn't seem to be aggressive enough and that has shown. A lot of this stuff just feels mental though and something that can be easily worked on with the level of training staff in the NBA and with vets and experienced players. But he seems so far to be a somewhat project player.

• Stats - Ace Bailey stats indicate him being a bust as of the moment. Most guys with similar advanced metrics don't end up being as good as ace Bailey is advertised to be. Although the stats don't look great, the eye test is much different, he definitely looks more impactful, but as the season continues it would be nice to see these stats improve and we can get a better idea of what he may actually be at the NBA level. Just like Harper, using advanced metrics are really useful to try find a comparison of the impact someone will have in the NBA in comparison to their college stats. recently Ace's stats have started to trend upwards, he's been having more consistent big nights for Rutgers and been very valuable as we enter a bit of a cold stretch from Dylan Harper, its good he shows reliance so that he can take up some pressure from Harper when stuff isn't going and he just needs a bit of aid on the offensive side to help Rutgers be competitive. That going to be valuable and interesting at the NBA level, to see if he can continue to have similar effects on his team.

Interesting factor:

• Size

  • He has all the tools, long arms and legs and he uses it well. Getting his shots off over his opponents, making contests basically negligible. gets blocks on defence as well. uses his body stop guys driving on him. he seems to understand the benefits and how to use his body to his advantage. and guys like this seem to perform well at the NBA level. people who understand how to use their length to their advantage. if he can further improve the use of his body, he has all the tools to be a Top player in the league. Again size and athleticism is what's going to get an NBA team to buy into you and your potential, and even more if you see someone use it to the level Ace uses it, Similarly to how KD did it at Texas.

Conclusion:

Prospect Ceiling: All NBA 2nd - 1st team ceiling

Pick Range: 2-6

NBA Comp: Tracy Mcgrady but can't pass, Brandon Miller??

Best Fits:

• Utah

• New Orleans

• Washington

A long, athletic wing who is the best pure scorer in this class, Ace Bailey also has a crap-ton of things to improve upon. Solid 3-point shooter. He must use his physical tools better in the paint and on defense. He doesn't playmake off the dribble well and takes really bad shots. Needs to be more aggressive inside 12 feet and handle must get tighter. The ceiling is there, but the floor is low.

NBA Comps: Tracy McGrady

Name: Airious “Ace” Bailey

Projected Draft Range: Top 3 pick

Projected NBA Role: Dynamic scoring forward with defensive versatility

Projected NBA Position: Small Forward / Power Forward

Projected Rookie Statline: 10 PPG | 5 RPG | 1 APG |   

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Strengths: • Scoring Versatility: Bailey is an adept scorer at at the mid range and three point level. His 6’10” frame allows him to shoot over defenders, and he possesses a smooth shooting stroke, particularly from mid-range.  • Athleticism: Demonstrates exceptional fluidity and explosiveness, enabling effective transition play and above-the-rim finishes. His agility allows him to navigate defenses adeptly.  • Defensive Potential: With his length and lateral quickness, Bailey can guard multiple positions. He has shown promise as both an on-ball defender and a help-side shot-blocker.  • Rebounding: Averages 7.2 rebounds per game, utilizing his size and athleticism to secure boards on both ends of the floor. 

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Weaknesses: • Consistency: While capable of high-scoring games, Bailey’s shooting efficiency can fluctuate, particularly from three-point range. He also has stretches in games where he looks disinterested in playing. • Playmaking: Averaging 1.3 assists per game, he has room to improve in creating opportunities for teammates and enhancing his court vision.  • Physicality: At 200 lbs, adding muscle mass could help him withstand the physicality of the NBA and improve his effectiveness in the paint. • Finishing: There is so serious concerns regarding Ace’s ability to finish at the rim at the next level. He often doesn’t use his body when he gets downhill, and when he does shoot an layup he twists and turns for a layup. He also just doesn’t like even attempting finishes at the rim. Most of the time he tries and settles for a bad mid range instead of wanting the contact all the way to the rim. • Mentality: There is also some concerns regarding whether he has what it takes mentally to check out when things get tough in the NBA. For lots of the Rutgers season Ace seems disinterested in playing.

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Shades of / Comparison: • Paul George: Bailey’s scoring ability and athleticism.  • Brandon Ingram: His frame and offensive skill set resemble Ingram’s. ⸻

Games Watched:

1.    vs. St.Peters Peacocks (November 11, 2024)
2.    vs.  Notre Dame Irish (November 26, 2024)
3.    vs. Alabama (November 27, 2024)
    4.     vs. Texas A&M (November 30th, 2024) 
    5.     vs. Michigan St( January 25th, 2025) 
    6.     vs. Maryland(February 9th 2025) 
    7.     vs. Oregon( February 16th, 2025) 
    8.     vs. Michigan(February 27th,2025) 
    9.     vs. Minnesota (March 9th, 2025) 
    10.    vs. USC (March 12th, 2025)
    

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Projected draft range:

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Projected Rookie Statline:

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Shades of/comp: