Pro Comparisons: Tracy McGrady, Michael Porter Jr
Ace Bailey is, without any question in my mind, one of the most polarizing prospects I’ve seen in quite some time. There are people who will tell you that he should be in the conversation for being the best prospect in the draft period, but there are also people who have him towards the back end of the top ten in their rankings and view him as someone who could fall even lower on their boards. I can see myself agreeing with either camp, and I don’t really know what to do about that. Ace is a weird prospect who can be equally exciting and frustrating. The one thing that should not ever be under discussed is the obvious potential that he has though, which is largely what keeps him a contender for a top five-ish spot on my board. There are very very few players at his size in NBA history who are as good of a shot maker and difficult shot maker as Ace is. He has special touch as a shooter, and contests don’t seem to bother him one bit. He takes some of the most wild, difficult shots you could possibly imagine happening in a regular offensive possession (which says something else about him, but more on that later), and somehow he manages to make those shots pretty consistently. I have not come across very many prospects at his age who are capable of making shots that have the degree of difficulty that Ace takes. That is something that is very worth noting in any discussion, no matter where your opinion falls on that scale I previously mentioned. While there is obvious appeal with his ability to make toughs shots, it also speaks to his poor decision making and his poor advantage creation. Ace takes a lot of those shots because he simply is not capable of creation space for himself consistently. His handle isn’t terrible, but it has no creativity. He relies on his athleticism (which has its own issues) to get to his spots, but he isn’t using it to create advantages for himself enough. He is perfectly fine with taking a low percentage shot, such as contested mid-range jumper, because he knows he can make those shots. However, I think his ability to due this will be reduced in the NBA where he isn’t always one of the biggest or most athletic players on the floor. He’ll need to develop a more creative handle and improve his decision making in order to reach the lofty expectations that have been set for him and to become a true star in the league. A lot of people that I have talked to seem to have little faith in him being able to do this, but I have optimism. I think a lot of his decision making woes are rooted in bad habits that he developed in high school. Shots that aren’t high percentage shots for him now were high percentage shots for him in high school. He was usually bigger, more athletic, and more talented than any player he played against, so those shots came to him easily. He was damn near unguardable because of the clear talent and athleticism gap between him and most of his opponents. I believe this put him in the habit of taking those kind of shots, and it’s what he knows how to do best so of course that habit would continue at the college level. I believe in his character and drive enough to believe that he can and will break out of some of those habits, at least to an extent, under good NBA coaching. He also will have to improve some of the actual skills in order to improve his creation ability, but he is young and has a lot of time to work on that. So while his shot selection and decision making is concerning, I believe that he can improve that in the NBA and break out of those bad habits. However, I also won’t say that there is zero possibility of him never improving in those areas. Bad habits and deficiencies can be very difficult to break, even with strong mental fortitude and determination. Ace will need to work very hard to improve his decision making and advantage creation in order to maximize his potential, and there is always the possibility of that not happening. One thing must remain clear though. Even if everything else fails (the shot selection and advantage creation doesn’t improve, inconsistency as a defender and unwillingness as a passer never improve), he will always have that difficult shot making to land on. I believe that he will be able to have a role in the NBA simply because he can make shots that not very many people can make, and his dynamic shooting as a big wing can give teams lineup versatility. His projectable floor certainly is low in my eyes, but I don’t see many scenarios where he completely fails to find a role in the league.
I want to talk a little bit more about his passing ability. Earlier, I eluded to his unwillingness as a passer. Notice how I didn’t say he was a bad passer. It’s really odd to find a scenario like this, but I actually think he has solid ability as a passer. He doesn’t make advanced reads or has spot on accuracy, but he has shown that he can make solid passes that you expect/hope a connective piece would make. The problem is that he would much rather take a shot than pass the ball. I wouldn’t necessarily define him as a “the possession ends with me” player, but it does feel that way a lot of the time. He averages less than assist per game, and far more often than not opts for taking a shot rather than passing the ball. This is something that really concerns me. There is not much room in the NBA for players who are pure bucket getters anymore. Teams expect their players to have more versatility and ability in multiple areas offensively. This is especially true with the focus on 3-point shooting in the NBA. A player like Ace Bailey, who would much rather shoot the ball than pass it, is rare in the NBA these days. This has the potential to become a very big issue for him. You have to be a top tier, elite scorer if you want to survive in the NBA with severe unwillingness as a passer. Ace has the tough shot making ability, but as I previously stated his advantage creation and shot selection are not good enough for me to truly buy into him being that caliber of scorer in the NBA, at least not right away. With his unwillingness as a passer, he is going to have a tough time surviving as a top 2-ish scoring option longterm unless he improves it. I can see a world where he ends up being played more exclusive as a movement shooter rather than an on-ball creator if his passing willingness doesn’t improve. Like his decision making and shot selection, I have hope for this improving, especially since I buy into his actual ability as a passer being pretty solid. It’s something very worth noting though, and this may be what could possibly limit his potential the most.
more analysis will be added soon
