The Rundown: PROLOGUE: I will say this up front, I have no idea where this scouting report will go. There is a chance that this will be shorter than my other recent write ups, simply because there is not enough tape on Leonard Miller to even talk about him with any level of detail. There is also an equal chance that this is one of my longest player reports, because the inherent speculation possible with a player like Leonard Miller combined with the speculation involved with the pure lack of game tape could lead to some rather incoherent rambles. However, regardless of the length of this essay, it cannot be forgotten that at the end of the day this is speculation, there is a level of unconfidence when evaluating Leonard that is unique to Leonard. With this note, proceed with adequate levels of caution.
One of my favorite scenes, when it comes to NBA draft applicability, is from Family Guy, when Peter Griffin offered a choice. He can either have a guaranteed boat, or a mystery box. He responds to this with the classic line, “A boat is a boat but a mystery box can be anything, it can even be a boat!” With that scene in mind, it is easy to understand both the fervor around Leonard Miller, along with some of the criticisms. The people betting on Leonard can easily be spotted saying “Ousmane Dieng is Ousmane Dieng, but Leonard Miller can be anything, he can even be Ousmane Dieng!” but they have some credibility with these bets because this particular mystery box vaguely somewhat maybe resembles the shape of a Magic Johnson/Kevin Durant/Steph Curry/Giannis Antetokounmpo hybrid. Of course, his nay sayers can point out how people are buying mystery in and of itself instead of buying actual evidence, but in this draft I’d argue that isn’t necessarily a bad thing, with the obvious and somewhat jarring lack of top end talent leaving few options that are 100% better options than the pure mystery and intrigue that Leonard Miller brings to the table. There aren’t a lot of prospects with tools or flashes better than Leonard, and betting on a combination of tools and flashes isn’t a terrible way to approach the draft.
It is necessary to understand Leonard’s age when discussing his outlook as a prospect, which is odd for me to say as age is usually one of the last things that I look at when evaluating. Leonard is in the 100th percentile for the importance of age in a prospect, with someone like Christian Koloko or Mark Williams at the 1st percentile. This distinction is primarily due to the amount of potential skills that could remain locked; for someone like Leonard, his flashes and tools combined with his relative rawness requires a young age because he requires a significant amount of time to develop. For a player like Koloko or Mark Williams, two dominant rim runners, there aren’t really any skills that they still have to develop to succeed in their role in the NBA, so time to develop (or lack thereof) is less important than for a more unknown commodity. Leonard Miller is the youngest player in this draft, which means that (a) he has more time to develop his skills and (b) his current lack of skills is more easily explained away. The next thing that greatly enhances the appeal of this mystery box are the physical traits that Miller possesses. If Ousmane Dieng is the epitome of fluidity, Leonard Miller is the epitome of flexibility. There are ways that his body moves that are almost appalling to watch, not because it’s bad but because of how objectively good it is. His flexibility is similar to that of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, someone without any exceptional burst that still generates monumental rim pressure because of the way that he can slide through different defensive coverages like sand through the hands. His moves have another level of quickness because he doesn’t need an extra movement to get where he needs to be, he doesn’t need that extra split second to regain his balance. It shows particularly strongly in his insane start and stop athleticism, but It permeates through every single facet of his game, it unlocks every one of his other skills. Even though he isn’t quite as fluid of a ball handler, which is more a combination of flexibility and skill as Ousmane Dieng at this point, his own combination of flexibility and age gives him plenty of runway to develop that fluidity. He simply makes moves that no one else can make, and if the rest of his game can be refined, it can be a truly special player. Think of it like Happy Gilmore. He was a terrible golfer, with the legendary skill to drive the ball over 400 yards. It gave him an advantage over every single player he golfed against, it gave him potential to be an all time great golfer, and with the proper training and development he reached that potential. The same can be said for Leonard Miller. His unalienable skill gives him a head start on his competition, and if developed properly can make him a truly great basketball player.
Enough with the theoretical jibber-jabber, let’s talk about what Leonard Miller can actually do on a basketball court. Maybe the most interesting of his current skills is his shooting, because of how unique the evaluation process is. No one has ever analyzed a shooter like Leonard Miller because by definition there has never been a shooter like Leonard Miller. What I mean when I say that he is by definition unique is because even Leonard Miller doesn’t shoot like Leonard Miller, every single shot he shoots has a different prep, different base, and different form. There is no “Leonard Miller shot” because he doesn’t have a shot. I won’t try to pretend that this is a positive, but I am also tired of people pretending it is an entirely negative feature of his game. The benefits of this are how it highlights his otherworldly touch. I am not sure there is a prospect 6’11 with touch like Leonard Miller since Kevin Durant, which is best exemplified through the fact that he makes 40% of his three-pointers while shooting the way that he does (according to aseaofblue.com, I couldn’t find exact stats of his time playing at Fort Erie). I think Leonard has the potential to be a legitimately incredible shooter after going through time in an NBA system that can teach him proper form and proper shot selection. Of course, a large amount of work and time in that NBA system is a necessity, because the shot prep he has now simply will not cut it at the next level. There is a good chance he’s gonna get called for offensive fouls with the ways his legs move during his shot, the sheer randomness of each shot is going to lead to his limbs hitting his defender at a pretty high rate. I have mixed feelings about the types of shots he’s been taking at Fort Erie, I like how he has such a diverse shooting portfolio, giving us a better idea of what he can and can’t do at the moment, but I can definitely see how the shot selection can give front offices some pause when considering Leonard in the first round. Personally, I almost never worry about shot selection unless it shows actual laziness because most of the time it is simply ironed out by being in a different system (Paolo in high school settling for mid-range pull-ups instead of going to the rim worried me, Johnny Davis shooting 16 shots a game does not). Fort Erie, for better and for worse, understood right away that Leonard Miller was far and away the best player on their team. That is a positive because it gave Leonard the opportunity to take chances that he wouldn’t take in a system where there was any likelihood that he could be benched, his confidence was sky high the entire year and for someone like me that lives and dies on the flashes of greatness, his tape was a heavenly experience to sort through. The negatives are centered around the new difficulty presented by trying to artificially translate his skillset to a more feasible NBA role. I hate to break it to all the Leonard Miller truthers out there, he won’t have a 50% usage or whatever it was at Fort Erie, feel free to take a break to sob if need be. The process of understanding how Leonard’s thirty-foot stepbacks after 15 seconds of isolation dribbling is complicated, to say the least, but I think I have settled on the solution of almost eliminating role from the equation. Leonard Miller can make all the 30-footers he wants in high school, the short answer is that he will never get to shoot them in the NBA. However, the fact that he makes them from time to time shows that he has the skills to scale down his shooting to a more repeatable and realistic shot diet. Of course, someone like Killian Hayes (masterful at off the dribble shots, and woeful at catch and shoots (so far)) is a disruption to my equation but for the most part, players that excel at off the dribble shots will in time excel at the catch and shoot shots, barring any drastic shot prep barriers between the two which rather miraculously have not reared their ugly head. At the end of the day, I expect Leonard to be a great shooter in the NBA with a repeatable shot, after a few years of development.
Another symptom of his touch is his exceptional finishing ability, a strength that will only be developed as his actual physical strength increases over time, but there are some rather odd nitpicks to make (odd is definitely the best word to describe Leonard Miller). The good is definitely good though, where he uses his great wingspan and great touch to have access to shots that other players can only dream of. His ambidexterity is so important in his finishing potential, where he is legitimately ambidextrous and not like someone who writes with their right hand but shoots with their left hand. Leonard is equally proficient with either hand in a variety of basketball situations, but I would argue that it gives him the greatest leg up with his finishing. He uses his long strides and great start/stop athleticism to get to his spots and then can reach and maneuver his way around rim protectors with great success. He is alright at absorbing contact, I wouldn’t call it one of his strengths but considering how his weight will naturally increase throughout his career I would expect this facet of his finishing to fill out likewise. Leonard’s level of finishing sophistication is also impressive. Many young prospects rely on their physical advantages to an extent that you can tell their finishing isn’t translatable, but Leonard has tricks and touch and tosses that are not commonly found in his similarly aged peers. This is probably going to be his primary calling card when he first gets into the league, slashing to the paint and creating advantages with his finishing. His ability to create paint touches also impacts how effective his finishing is, because proficient finishing is nothing without proficient rim attacks. I love his ability to attack off of closeouts, or use screens to get his way into the paint, all hailing back to his incredible flexibility. He doesn’t have the most traditional burst moments, but his paint touches appear to be translatable (assuming his shooting is as legitimate as I am projecting). He uses his super advanced off arm techniques to hold off his opponents, which is a perfect compliment to his start and stop athleticism. However, his finishing progression isn’t complete, which is evident when looking at the jarring number of point blank range layups that he completely whiffs. It isn’t something that impacts him on a game to game basis, but when looking at how many he misses compared to other lottery prospects in this draft (especially ones his size) it definitely takes you aback. He tends to rush himself when he is underneath the rim, not realizing that he has a lot of physical tools that could really help him when he is trapped in the paint, such as his long arms and exceptional height. His strength isn’t quite there yet, but that isn’t an excuse for how the game is obviously too fast for him at moments (which was an obvious problem in the combine scrimmages, I expect that problem to go away with age and high level reps). It is such a weird problem that I expect it to simply be flushed out with time but it is certainly something worth mentioning.
One huge source of his great potential is his playmaking abilities, both passing and handling wise. To start, his passing, another one of his skills that have flashes of exceptional refinement for his age (emphasis on flashes). One avenue that touch is not properly appreciated is, in fact, passing; far too often it is viewed as a singularly scoring trait when touch flows into every single aspect of the game that involves having the ball in your hand. Being able to both float and zip passes into corners is almost entirely dependent on touch, after the initial task of recognizing the read is complete. Dissecting the anticipated actions of the defense and rolling the ball off of your finger, leading your teammate into an open window that only you could help them reach is a beautiful fusion of innate touch and understanding of the game, and Leonard has oodles of it. Watching Fort Erie was decidedly a love/hate relationship; Leonard gave me some of my highest scouting highs… and that lumbering oaf which his team calls a center gave me some of my lowest lows. I take that back to an extent just in case that pasty, handless, white-men-can’t-jump-stereotype-reinforcer is one of my followers but the amount of beautiful passes or driving lanes that could have resulted in wonderful highlights that were slashed by the malicious man that is the Fort Erie center, HANLON’S RAZOR BE DARNED! To get back to my point, Leonard’s passing talents were somewhat wasted in his prep school setting, but that doesn’t take away from the fact that he can hit remarkable reads. I would say he is best in transition when asked to understand a situation and properly take advantage, but his half court feel shouldn’t be understated. He is able to use a combination of his handle and size (getting Ousmane flashbacks) to make pick and roll passing reads that are borderline ridiculous; I wouldn’t call him the post or skip passer that Ousmane is but with size as a qualifier there are very few players that meet his lofty standards. He is great at using his long arms to create passing windows, and even better at thinking creatively to create even crazier passing windows. Versatility is a word used a lot to describe Leonard, but I think the way it maybe applies the most is when analyzing the vast toolbox of ways he can deliver passes. Wrap arounds to behind the backs, over the heads to live dribble, every pass in the book has been shown by Leonard to some extent… but this does come with downsides. One of the reasons these are applicable when scouting Leonard is because his passing discipline is, at this point, pretty terrible, the decision making can use a lot of added precision. With his Fort Erie situation he could try lots of crazy things, and some of the time those bold decisions came back to bite him. If he saw a read he threw the pass, and even though most of the time he was adept at analyzing the second and third layers of defense, there were times that it was obvious he didn’t think it through nearly well enough. This is a symptom of a lot of high usage passing prospects so it makes sense it exists in Leonard, but it is something to be wary of when watching his progression. His handle gives less cause for concern in my mind, and it is a pivotal part of what gives him so much potential. There are close to zero 6’10 prospects with his level of handle creativity and efficiency, and combined with his flexibility, it is a joy to marvel at what his potential space creation equity could look like. Believe it or not, I don’t have a page of words to write about it, it is simply very very good, and will only get better as his strength and discipline develops naturally with time.
Defense is a divisive subject when it comes to Leonard Miller discourse, and I think I am more on team Leonard in this debate. To start though, the cons. At this moment, right now, with zero projection, he is one of the worst defenders in the class in terms of what it would look like right now on an NBA basketball team. He takes some ill advised gambles, he falls asleep at times off of the ball, and the effort can be a little inconsistent. These are all real, genuine issues that must be fixed. However, a lot of them can be attributed to the context. He was THE offensive engine, and asking him to take full advantage of his defensive potential at the same time would be close to child abuse. He could still provide some positive impact with just his physical tools, so it is easy to understand where some defensive mishaps could originate from. However, the pros of his defense are staggeringly intriguing at times. To start, his lateral quickness, which is jaw dropping for someone his size. Sometimes it is hard to tell because smaller guys get by him, but that is moreso due to his tendency to jump for fakes and shift and not due to his lateral quickness. When he stays down, he can stick with absolutely anyone. Secondly, his screen navigation, which gives a lot of credibility to claims of him playing the two guard at the next level. The way he can get skinny and get around screens is directly related to his flexibility that I have harped on again and again, but it is just beautiful to watch in action. He is very rarely tripped up by (high school) screen setters, which combined with his lateral quickness gives him a lot of versatile defense potential. There are flashes of weak side rim protection where he makes advanced reads of the offense, not quite common enough for me to call them a surefire “strength” but his high feel and athleticism combined with the (limited, but existing) instances of this defense certainly can make a general manager think that he could be a bit of a second line of protection. I would also consider rebounding one of his strengths, both offensively and defensively. He can trace the ball rather well and go up and get it at it’s high point and for some reason his motor is revved up significantly higher after the ball clanks off the rim (maybe because he salivates over rebound and run opportunities, he is absolutely elite in transition). At the end of the day, there are a lot of bad defenders in high school, but not a lot of bad defenders with the signs of greatness that Leonard has, which leads me to have faith in his ability to develop on that end of the floor.
When evaluating Leonard, think about it like selecting teams for a pickup basketball game. The odds are you haven’t played basketball with a lot of these people before, so you pick the players with the tools that are best fitted to produce an elite basketball player because you’re just lacking the other knowledge. You pick the tallest players, the strongest players. That is what you should be doing with Leonard. We don’t know everything, that is the only thing that is certain. However, we do know the things that he has that could create a good basketball player; the touch, the flexibility, the size, and those things are things that no one else in this draft has. Sure, there may be players at this pickup game that you have played with before, players you know can knock down an open three… but you know them. Leonard could be exponentially better, and in this draft that is worth a shot for a rebuilding team looking for footing. Leonard is a mystery box, and my oh my is he looking tempting.
A 6’10 freak of nature athlete (but not really in the traditional ways), he can do things that no one else can. Great touch with a developing shot, great handle and flexibility, flashes in every facet. Needs a ton of polish and reps and strength, but those are flaws that go away with time more than anything else.
Shai Gilgeous Alexander, Darius Bazely, Lamar Odom, Clay Face
EPILOGUE: it was a long one lol