This may be an unpopular opinion at this stage in the draft process, but I believe Nikola Topic has one of the highest ceilings out of any prospect in this draft class. It is rare to find a player with his level of craftiness, IQ, and passing ability. Depending on where he lands, he could be a teams best passer the minute he steps onto the court. He excels at making skip passes and running the offense through the pick and roll. He also is such a crafty ball handler and finisher around the rim. He has an advanced understanding of how to fool defenses with quick dribble moves and shiftiness, and he is one of the best under the rim finishers in the draft. There are genuine concerns with his shooting and on-ball defense, but his offensive ceiling is high enough to give teams a reason to still draft him with a high pick in the draft.

Shades of — Manu Ginobili, Goran Dragic, bigger TJ McConnell

Best team fits — Washington, San Antonio

Topic is a great offensive player. He’s an incredible passer and transition ball handler, and this is where he thrives most. He’s a great ball handler in the half court as well, and I’ve seen him have some nasty crossovers to get to the rim. He has an incredibly quick first step, and that gets him to the rim at will, but his finishing is something to watch, because he hasn’t finished well when I’ve been watching. However, his incredible passing gives him a ceiling as an offensive quarterback and a floor as a connector? His shooting isn’t good, he’s about 30% on the season and his form is shaky, but that can improve with time. I could see him being a point guard or a wing in the nba, he’s a good enough passer to be a PG but might thrive as a slasher and connective passer. His floor is low, and he could struggle to get minutes without a jumper, finishing ability, or defense. His defense is fine, he’s a great athlete who’s in great shape, but he struggles with balance and body positioning and he picks up fouls because of that. They have him full court pressing the opposing teams PG though so that’s a good sign. Topic is an elite passer and has an elite first step and he can turn that skill set into a productive nba player, even without a jumper or great defense

Comp: Tyrese Halliburton without a jumper

Likes:

• Has a good frame for a PG being 6'6 and 200 pounds (looks a little bigger than that honestly).

• Still really young, only 18. Doesn't turn 19 until August.

• Has a great FG percentage of 49%.

• He also has a great FT percentage of 87%.

• For the most part, Topic's passing ability is subpar. I like it more than I don't, but it's really average. He can have some nice looks, but for the most part everything he does is basic and not very memorable. It's not rare for him to have nights where he doesn't do much in terms of passing either (might just be the film I watched though). I remember him getting some of his passes deflected or them just being poorly executed throws (bit on the minor side). So, why is this a Like and not a Worry? Well, his stats really sold me. He has an excellent assist/turnover ratio (2.3) while getting a lot of assists (5.5). When reviewing my original thoughts on his playmaking ability, I realized most of my gripes were fairly minor and shouldn't be overshadowed by the production he's shown on the stat sheet. Still a little on the fence on how much I like his passing ability, but currently I'm leaning towards liking it more than disliking it.

  +

  Worries:

• Injuries have been worrying for Topic. Suffered an injury to his knee recently while performing in the playoffs for his team, and I'm aware he previously suffered another injury mid-season (I don't know what he hurt though). Not sure how much of an effect these injuries have had or will have to his game, which is why it's a worry right now and not an issue, but health concerns are starting to rise with him.

• Topic has shown he has some speed to him, just not sure how much I buy into that speed. Offensively, it's uncommon for him to demonstrate his quickness, not really using it too much to get to the rim (he did his previous year), but defensively, you can tell much more how high his motor is. He moves around the perimeter with his opponent fairly well, keeping up with who he's guarding only because of his speed, not because of his lateral movement. The issue is, he still gets blown by a lot (I'll touch on this later on). It feels like I can't buy into his speed defensively because it kind of just seems like a facade. Again, bringing up his injury concern, will that knee injury create even more questions towards his agility... will he be slower defensively and offensively?

• Doesn't do much in terms of scoring, especially since he moved from Mega Mis to his new team. When he played for his previous team / league, he put up a lot of points. I remember two 40+ performances from him. But recently, I think the most I've seen him score has been 6 points. While you could make the argument that he's gone into a harder league hence why he doesn't score as much anymore, I don't think that applies here. He should still show flashes he can score if that was the case, but he doesn't. I think he hasn't been able to step up against tougher competition, a huge worry. It's hard to grasp how good of a scorer he is considering his stats differentiate from his film heavily... he averaged 14 PPG this season, but it definitely does not seem like that. His change between teams' mid-season + the change of production he's had since, and his injuries created so many questions as to how good of a scorer he really is.

• His finishing around the rim is questionable. Giving a more specific example as to what I mentioned above, ever since he moved up to his new team, he doesn't drive to the rim anywhere near as often, and the few times he does get himself to the basket, he gets his shot blocked 90% of the time. He's shown he can get to the rim and score, but all of those good finishing highlights which support that claim came from last year, and none have popped up recently. You could buy into what he's previously shown, but I'm not going to.

• I really think his shot is ok and not as bad as people say it is, but it has a bit too many questions to be in the Likes section. Topic's form is tough to watch, but his splits aren't too bad and on film it seemed like he was hitting more shots than he was missing. He's 30% from three, which is an issue as it's significantly below the average for a PG, but him being 87% from the line, and that 30% not being as bad as it could be, gives me hope his shot will come around and improve, becoming more consistent. Wish he shot the ball more and that he was a little more efficient, but it could be a lot worse.

• Topic's ball handling never seemed bad, but it wasn't good either. For the most part, whenever he dribbled the ball, it wasn't anything outstanding. A couple of times I saw him lose the ball and create turnovers from his ball handling, which is the main reason as to why I can't buy into his ball handling ability. I think my second main distaste of his ball handling is how ugly it is, but to be fair, his mechanics work well enough, and he has some nice moves in his bag, he just needs to show them more (another issue of his, he doesn't actually do much which the ball even though I'm 70% sure he's the primary PG for his team). Overall, I just can't be sold with what he offers, but there's something there, I guess.

• Needs to lower his turnovers (2.3) but considering his assist/turnover ratio is still great even with him averaging a good number of turnovers, I can kind of let this slide.

  +

  Dislikes:

• Don't like his defense, but it's not completely awful. Fouls way too much (3.0), gets blown by a lot, won't be able to do anything if taken to the post, he can be a little out of control, jumping or biting on moves, and he can be a bit lazy at times. I do think he can apply pressure well and keep up with his opponents, but for like 2 seconds before he gets blown by. There is some potential there, I just don't know how much I buy into it (a common theme with Topic's game). He can read passes at times, but not often enough for me to buy into that being a highlight of his. It also feels like he gambles a lot defensively, and it's really 50/50 whether it pays off or not. Averaged 0.9 steals per game and 0.1 blocks per game, around the averages for a PG.

• Not a good rebounder. I actually did see him get a couple of boards consistently throughout multiple games, but the reason I say he's not a good rebounder is because he didn't fight for any of those boards. They all fell right to him, and it's more often he didn't get a rebound than he did. Considering his height and length + his lack of effort, he probably won't become a solid rebounder anytime soon. Averaged 3.2 rebounds per game, around the average for a PG.

• Talking about effort, Topic doesn't give any effort if he's not "supposed to". He's genuinely one of the few guys that just stands there every game and waits to see what happens when the ball isn't in his hands... it's honestly a little infuriating. If he doesn't have to be active defensively (guard on-ball) or get a rebound because his teammates are already boxing out and crashing the rim, he's not going to do anything at all. Don't expect him to cut to the basket or move around offensively either, do expect him to glance from the wing or top of the key though and see his teammates be active off the ball.

• Mentioned it before but he has a bad 3PT percentage for a PG, 30%.

  +

  I don't like Topic. People had him going 1 or 2 not that long ago, and I never saw the hype. I don't think he's that good, but what he could be is a little appealing. Way too many questions with him on both sides of his game, I can't rank him highly because of that. I would recommend watching your on film on him and seeing what you think of his performances.

Tier 1.5 Nikola Topic - Crvena Zvezda / Serbia (PG - HT: 6’6” - WING: 7’0” - WT: )

- Big PG with elite speed with the ball in his hands
- 7’ wingspan as a PG is just too insane to pass up on. Measurables and turnover rate put him ahead of Collier.
- Gets to the rim at will and makes every pass
- Efficient scorer despite a lack of a 3pt game
- Not a good shooter or defender yet, but his positional size and length off-ball can’t be a bad thing
- Shades of Josh Giddey, Tyrese Haliburton without the shooting
- Best fit: Washington, Chicago, Utah, San Antonio
- Worst fit: Detroit, Charlotte, Portland, Toronto

Range: 1-7

Poste(s) : PG

Âge : 18 ans

Taille : 2m00

Stats : 18.6pts, 3.6reb, 6.9ast, 0.9stl, 0.2blk

Adresse : 52%fg, 29%3pt, 85%tf

Capable de marquer en pénétration "comme dans du gruyère", Topic a le profil faux-lent qui rappelle un Doncic et les angles inhabituels avec lesquels il trompe ses adversaires, idem pour sa vision du jeu. L'interrogation concerne son tir, tout comme sa raideur balle en main. Bémols également concernant son (inexistant) mid-range, ses 3pts les pieds bien dans le ciment ou encore sa faible carrure en défense. Le risque ? Plus Giddey que Doncic... "High risk, high reward" typique venu d'Europe.

Nikola Topic

[img]http://i.imgur.com/yIf0LHY.png[/img][/url]]()

https://youtu.be/kxXdCEV8EoA?si=5l7RYDFPEPk1qCeF

This is my second choice should Spurs get a top 3 pick in the draft. I am not as high on Topic as other Spurs fans. Because I do not know if he will develop a three, improve escaping traps or improving defensively. But if he can, he is the best PG in the top 3.

Overview: Nikola Topic is a 6'6", 190-pound Serbian point guard/combo guard who's currently lighting up the EuroLeague with KK Crvena zvezda. He's considered a top-five prospect for the 2024 NBA Draft, drawing comparisons to Luka Doncic due to his playmaking ability, size, and scoring prowess. His recent mid-season transfer from KK Mega Basket to Crvena zvezda puts him on a bigger stage against tougher competition, raising his draft stock even further. Strengths:

• Elite playmaking: Topic has a wizard-like handle and court vision, able to effortlessly dissect defenses and find open teammates. He can thread pinpoint passes off the dribble or from the post, making him a nightmare to contain.

• Unconventional scoring: While not a pure scorer, Topic can put up points in creative ways. He uses his strong frame to finish through contact, shoots a decent mid-range jumper, and even shows flashes of a developing three-point shot.

• Size and strength: At 6'6", Topic has good size for a guard, allowing him to see over the defense and rebound over smaller players. He's also deceptively strong, able to absorb contact and finish through bigger defenders.

• Basketball IQ and leadership: Topic plays with a high basketball IQ and understands the game at a high level. He makes quick decisions, rarely turns the ball over, and often makes the right play before it develops. He can also lead by example on the court, bringing energy and focus to his teammates. Weaknesses:

• Athleticism: While not slow, Topic doesn't possess the elite athleticism of some top prospects. He might struggle to blow by quicker point guards in the NBA and could rely more on his craftiness and skill to create offense.

• Three-point consistency: As mentioned, Topic's three-point shot is still a work in progress. He can hit them in stretches, but needs to improve his range and shot selection to become a consistent threat from deep.

• Experience: Though playing in the EuroLeague now, Topic is still only 18 years old and has limited experience against NBA-caliber talent. He'll need time to adjust to the physicality and pace of the league. Overall: Nikola Topic is a special talent with the potential to be a star in the NBA. He has all the tools to be a successful point guard: playmaking, scoring, size, and leadership. While he needs to work on his athleticism and three-point shooting, his overall skillset and basketball IQ are already impressive. The team that drafts him will be getting a future floor general who can elevate their offense and lead them to success. Additional Notes:

• Topic was recently called back to Crvena zvezda, the team he grew up supporting, from KK Mega Basket. This move puts him in a higher-pressure environment with more national attention, potentially impacting his draft stock positively.

• Some scouts consider Topic a better fit as a combo guard than a pure point guard due to his size and scoring ability. He could play alongside another lead guard or utilize his scoring skills off the ball. Overall, Nikola Topic is a must-watch player for the 2024 NBA Draft. He has the talent and potential to be a game-changer at the next level.

Tier 1 - Ceiling:

All-Star

Nationality

Serbian

Draft Day Age

18.86

Wingspan

7'0

Avg ranking (top 6 NBA draft sites) 3.3

++I'm not saying Topic will become any of these players - BUT I do see certain aspects that have shades of these players game++

Josh Giddey player's ability to create advantages; A star point guard has to be able to single-handedly crack fissures in a set defense. He's a smart, savvy playmaker. Quick decision-maker as a playmaker. He often receives the ball then instantly makes a pass to an open man, or in pick-and-rolls he’ll toss overhanded hook dimes using either hand to cutters. He's methodical, he particularly is very deliberate in using his ability to stop on a dime and then accelerate immediately after to throw off defenders and it can sometimes look like he's playing in slow motion. But if you watch him in transition with the ball in his hands, he's absolutely dynamic from a speed perspective, at his size, with the ball.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander comfort shifting gears all align with SGA on an archetypal level. SGA leads the NBA in drives per game. If Topic gets the minutes and touches, he will fall near the top of that leaderboard, too. Slippery driver who uses subtle pace changes, head fakes, and clean footwork to get into the teeth of the defense. If he needs to put his shoulder into bigger opponents to draw contact, he can do that too.

Manu Ginobili endlessly crafty; absolute handful driving the lane. He can accelerate at the drop of a hat, lessed with a dynamic first step and a preternatural sense of when to press the turbo button. He can just as easily force defenders off-balance with jittery handles, working patiently to find the right angle to the rim. The basketball I.Q. is there

Weaknesses & Reasons Why I'm not worried long-term Topic has to earn respect from 3-point range. Topic also doesn't get vertical. He is going to rely on touch and craft around the basket

he lacks the strength to handle more physical scorers at 6-foot-6. He is going to be stuck between positions on defense at the next level. He needs to add muscle and work on fighting over screens.

Stiff jump shooter. Defenders often sag off him to give him space to launch when he’s spotting up or isolating. He’s reluctant to shoot unless he is open, in part due to his low release. A solid bet to figure it out as a shooter considering his soft touch near the rim and his elite free throw percentage.

He is an extremely intelligent player with a uncanny ability to get to the rim. His understanding of how to manipulate defenses, use little subtle head fakes, acceleration as well as decelerate Just throw off defenders so well....He's not currently a good defender but again he has positional size and enough ethnicism were there still hope on that end and he's a really good free throw shooter which also gives hope for his three-pointer in time.. But one way or another the kid finds a way to play impactful, winning basketball, and that can't be discounted.

• Encouraging defensive effort, anticipation, and hustle, averaging 1.5 to 2.0 steals per game

• Shows potential as a sneaky good defender in the NBA

Vecenie Interesting facts about Topic His father, Milenko Topic, is a former professional basketball player, head coach and gold medalist with the Yugoslavian National Team.

Parents are Milenko and Gordana. Milenko was a high-level professional basketball player in Yugoslavia (and later Serbia) in the 1990s and 2000s and was a member of the Yugoslavian national team that won the silver medal at the 1996 Olympics. He went into coaching after his playing career ended, topping out as the interim head coach for Crvena Zvezda (also known as Red Star) in his native Serbia in 2018

Topić ended up with Beograd, where he was effective in the Serbian league in 19 games, averaging 17.8 points and shooting 55 percent from the field. After the 2022-23 season, he signed his first non-developmental professional contract with Red Star and was loaned out to Serbian developmental powerhouse Mega for the 2023-24 season. There, Topić shone. Topić won MVP of the U18 European Championships over the summer, averaging 15 points and five assists while leading Serbia to a gold medal. He looked like one of the best players in the Adriatic League at Mega, averaging nearly 19 points and seven assists in 13 Adriatic League games. Red Star called him back from his loan agreement, and he quickly entered the team’s rotation. However, Topić suffered a sprained left knee in January and missed three months of action as the team rehabbed him cautiously. He returned in late April and played four games, then went down with what was originally thought to be a sprained knee. It was later revealed to be a partially torn ACL.

His size allows him to see over the defense. While he’s not fast, he plays with great flexibility, which allows him to maximize his acceleration to gain leverage on defenders. He flips his hips well and covers ground quickly with his stride extension and length. He's stronger than he appears, too, with great contact balance to maintain his touch through bumps.

Topić can separate from his man. He’s sharp with his footwork and changes speeds to get into the paint. He loves to use a hang dribble to access his bend and acceleration. He uses inside-out dribbles with regularity and can string together multiple crossovers in a row to get defenders off-balance. He is creative and will use unorthodox behind-the-back moves in space. Whether in isolation or off a ball screen, Topić has a great sense of his defender’s balance, attacking his front foot while properly setting up to exploit opponents who get too hoppy. He is best in ball screens, where his footwork and balance enable him to attack open space simply, but also to change pace within his attacks once he gets into the middle of the court. He’s great at cutting off recovery angles by snaking in front of his defender and keeping them in jail on his hip. For a teenager, he’s excellent at coordinating re-screens with his bigs. He hammered switch scenarios in the Adriatic League.

His highest upside skill is his passing. He’s not quite on the playmaking level of the best guards yet, but a lot of his mistakes are the result of of youth and exploration. He has a keen understanding of how to read second- and third-level defenders to find out where the help is coming from and attacking it. He averaged 6.9 assists per game in the Adriatic this year for Mega when he got to run the show as a starter, and the passes he executes are impressive. He can throw them off a live dribble from a variety of different angles with either hand. He can toss off-hand overhead passes at full speed or gather and throw short scoop passes to cutters toward the rim. He consistently keeps his dribble alive on his left-handed drives around the rim to try to force help, then patiently finds his teammates. He has great touch hitting rim runners on lobs and knows how to time pocket passes to short-rollers. He has most of the passes a top playmaker needs in his repertoire

As a scorer, Topić was a great finisher around the rim this season. He made 68.1 percent of his shots at the basket in Adriatic League play for Mega, a great mark considering almost all of those were self-created. He consistently drives into rim protectors, bumping them to create a bit of separation before either using touch or extending and using his length. He finishes well with his inside hand, and he can spin off his defender to toss in finger rolls. He accelerates effectively with his last step as well, allowing him to get closer to the cup after engaging the rim protector. He averaged almost five free-throw attempts per game, too, a strong number for his age. Topić clearly has shooting touch. If he gets into a jumper off the hop, his rhythm and release look clean. He made 13 of his 39 pull-up 3s for Mega, per Synergy. If given time to set his feet in the way he wants, the ball looks good coming out of his hand and the shots often go in. A lot of Topić’s pull-up makes seemed to be from 30-or-longer range when his defender wasn’t up on him, allowing him to set his feet and fire. He always has converted his free throws at a great clip, giving scouts confidence that he’ll continue improving as a long-range shooter.

As a scorer, Topić was a great finisher around the rim this season. He made 68.1 percent of his shots at the basket in Adriatic League play for Mega, a great mark considering almost all of those were self-created. He consistently drives into rim protectors, bumping them to create a bit of separation before either using touch or extending and using his length. He finishes well with his inside hand, and he can spin off his defender to toss in finger rolls. He accelerates effectively with his last step as well, allowing him to get closer to the cup after engaging the rim protector. He averaged almost five free-throw attempts per game, too, a strong number for his age. Topić clearly has shooting touch. If he gets into a jumper off the hop, his rhythm and release look clean. He made 13 of his 39 pull-up 3s for Mega, per Synergy. If given time to set his feet in the way he wants, the ball looks good coming out of his hand and the shots often go in. A lot of Topić’s pull-up makes seemed to be from 30-or-longer range when his defender wasn’t up on him, allowing him to set his feet and fire. He always has converted his free throws at a great clip, giving scouts confidence that he’ll continue improving as a long-range shooter.

Topić feasted on switches with overmatched, slow-footed bigs in space. He won’t get as many of those opportunities in the NBA. Will he be able to consistently succeed without a distinct speed advantage? Scouts have mixed opinions. Topić’s swing skill is his shooting. Though his touch is good, his mechanics are inconsistent, leading to a lot of variances in his results. He shot just 30.6 percent from 3 this season in all competitions this season. His footwork getting into his shot is inconsistent, which throws off his balance and center of gravity as he’s transferring his weight. I don’t like the way his shot looks when he’s getting into it off a one-two step, which is his preferred method when going to his left.

SUMMARY: Topic has a lot of upside, especially if you really believe in the work he did on the ball in his 13 games to start the year for Mega. But using a top-five pick on a 13-game sample, especially when his games with Red Star were much more pedestrian, is a huge bet for any lead decision-maker in a front office. That person would need to trust that what they saw was reality and not the construct of a Mega offense that also allowed Nikola Djurišić to get loose as a scorer following Topić’s transfer back to Red Star. If his ability to separate against NBA-level athletes doesn’t come through and his jumper off the catch doesn’t get there, what is he then? Is he even a starter? As an enormous ballhandler with serious touch and incredible vision as a passer, Topić is clearly an NBA player, even if it doesn’t all translate. But his floor is lower than all the other top guys in this class because his sample of strong play is so small — even if that resume includes him winning MVP of the Under18 European championships last summer. In a class with precious little upside to find, I would understand having Topic in the top five, even. But between the small sample of great play and the knee injury he suffered late in the year, I ended up with a late-lottery grade.