The Rundown
I have received many comments asking me to explain my reasoning on my “Vince Williams top 20” take, and I have posted many comments trying to do just that. But, then I remembered something very important; why make a bunch of 3 sentence replies when I can simply write 5 pages on Vince AND never touch grass? I can’t believe it took me this long to put it all together, my bad guys, that one is on me. Presumably, I got so many comments about Vince Williams because I am not sure that everyone actually knows who he is, and a simple look at the stat sheet won’t really show you the real picture, with an even greater portion of the portrait covered than most NBA draft prospects. However, before we begin, I am going to list a couple of stats just to show how unique Vince really is in the grand scheme of things (per Chip Jones); there have been 4 players since 2009 who are (a) taller than 6’5, (b) have a steal percentage of over 3, (c ) have a block percentage of over 4, (d) a three-point percentage over 36, and (e) attempt over 8 three-point attempts per 100 possessions. These players are Danny Green, Robert Covington, Matisse Thybulle, and Vince Williams. This is not even factoring in assist percentage, because when you include an assist percentage over 19 into the equation, the list gets dwindled down to 1: Vince Williams. I will expound on what each of these stats means for his NBA projection, but throughout this write-up, keep these numbers in mind when considering if Vince is right for your team.
Let’s start with the defense of Vince, maybe his best attribute at the college level. In order to fully understand the defense though, we must understand the physicals. Vince is listed at 6’6, but opposite to Bennedict Mathurin, I wouldn’t be shocked if he was 2 inches taller. In fact, I WOULD be shocked if he doesn’t measure out closer to 6’8 than his current listed height. The most recent wingspan that I can find is 6’11.5, and he weighs in at a sturdy and undeniably strong 205, which I again would not be shocked to see bumped up into the 215-220 range at the draft combine. He uses all of these attributes marvelously to consistently make his presence felt on the defensive end, being a certified “Chaos Creator ™” with his block and steal numbers, but his most impactful gift on the defensive end of the court is certainly his mind. Vince is certainly better off the ball than on the ball, and it is due to his irrefutably great basketball IQ. He simply knows where to be to make himself a factor, but not just his feet. He knows where to put his hands, he knows where to be extending his arms, he knows when to flail his legs in the hope of a kicked ball violation. He knows how to use his sturdy build to absorb contact from drivers, he knows how to pre-help to discourage certain cuts or eliminate driving lanes. One of the hardest things to master when playing at the NBA level, and one of the things that consistently goes undervalued because it is not the sexiest skill and can only really be noticed when the player is doing terribly at it, is off-ball defense, and it simply isn’t a worry for Vince. I don’t project him to be making any all-defensive teams simply because he isn’t the most dominant athlete in the world, but in a team context, he will be a clear plus, maybe from day 1. This has just been about his shifting and weakside rim protection, but his closeouts are also very solid. Williams’s feet are not the fastest, but the technique and footwork is exceptional and disciplined, making up for any potential issues with pure athleticism. When he is a bit late on the closeout, Williams is great at that little poke from behind steal where you whip your arm at the ball. His hands constantly shine on defense, be it on his well-informed gambles where he is a threat to take it from end to end, or on his “mugging” style defense in the paint where he simply rips the ball out of the hands of the offensive player. Playing with a loose dribble against Vince is a recipe for disaster where he is more than willing to swipe at the rock. Of course, he isn’t a perfect defender. His reaction time is only mediocre, it will not be taken advantage of but it won’t be a plus. He is a bit too small to be a primary rim protector or consistently body in the paint for rebounds (although his rebounding and ball tracking is one of his strengths; he is exceptional and predicting where the ball will end up and uses his acceptable vertical, wingspan, and positional strength to get it before bringing it back down fundamentally), so he will likely to relegated to a primarily perimeter-based forward who focuses on weak side rim protection. His feet are also not the quickest, I wouldn’t call them slow but he might have trouble sticking with guards at the next level. I trust him to be very solid guarding 2.25-4 at the next level, but any more than that might be pushing it. Of course, when he does get beat his long strides and great timing make his recovery defense a huge plus. I think in time he will be capable of guarding the primary forward option on the other team and I think he will do it well, but his great help defense really gives lots of lineup flexibility when considering opposing matchups.
Offensively, the stats aren’t going to be blowing anyone away, but there is some necessary context that needs to be understood. He got A LOT better as the year went on, something that you don’t often see in a senior. Of course, he is a very very young senior and will be 21 until August I believe, so less than 2 years older than Chet Holmgren. I believe that this increase in productivity throughout the year can be chalked up to one main factor; he learned how to play as a first option. Vince was just a role player leading up to this year, and the newfound role clearly stumped him at first. I wouldn’t put too much emphasis on this, of course it helps his ultimate upside that he eventually figured out how to play as a first option but at the next level it is more than likely he will be a role player so this initial blockade of development shouldn’t worry anybody.
Perhaps the most interesting thing offensively in Vince William's repertoire is his passing game. This is sometimes hidden on the stats because his teammates were not always adept at handling his fastballs which resulted in some untimely turnovers, but at the next level with next level spacing, his expert-level skip and pocket passes will only be amplified. Vince is so talented at fitting his passes into really tight windows, but he sometimes puts a bit too much velocity on these throws, sometimes fancies up the passes a bit too much, and his teammates look almost surprised and acted very surprised. The translatability to the NBA in the passing avenue is obvious; he will be expected to quickly make the right read while roaming around a heliocentric creator, and if a team is smart he will also be tasked to run some spread pick and rolls, where his skip passing and proficiency at arcing rainbows will be displayed. His pick and roll craft is so impressive for someone his size, it almost screams “growth spurt at an older age so he transitioned from playing point guard to power forward”. He can seal his defender, trap him on the screen, patiently wait for the big to make his way to the hoop, pull up for the floater, or hit the open shooter in the weak side corner. As a primary creator sometimes his passes are a bit forced but that will be negated at the next level. When he is not running the pick and roll, it is likely that he will be running around the perimeter, where he is also quite adept. His three-point numbers, obviously good but not world-beating, are lowered by the attempts that he sometimes has to take. His volume is exceptional and he currently shoots a lot more off the dribble three-pointers than he will at the next level. The release isn’t fast but it isn’t slow, perhaps giving a bit of hoop for Vince to take advantage of a sagging defense in the pick and roll. Contests don’t cause much of an issue from the games that I have watched, and he can comfortably step behind the NBA three point line a foot or two. Most intriguing in his shooting profile definitely figures to be his movement shooting. Vince is constantly running off of screens to get open looks from behind the line, and I really haven’t seen very many players this big and strong who are so capable at this type of off-the-ball shooting wizardry. His footwork is exceptional, never wasting movement and in turn never wasting time, time which is more important for him than some other guys because of his slightly slower feet. His release is repeatable and consistent with solid touch, all important indicators for future shooting ability. Vince is great at quickly attacking off of the catch if he has a bit of momentum, taking advantage of the scurrying behavior of his defender's feet and finding any advantage he can to make up for his foot speed. He will never be a blow-by athlete, but he is great at attacking closeouts and making his way to the basket when the defender is just a little bit off-balance. His finishing numbers skyrocketed this year, as he has discovered how to use his size and length combined with his timing to find little crevices and take advantage. Vince isn’t always great at getting to the basket by himself, as his handle is, while great for his size, still not great overall. He doesn’t have much of any of a post-up game at this point, so if he isn’t operating off of a switch it is hard to see him getting to the hole consistently without a screen. His vertical, long strides, strength, touch, and wherewithal makes scoring fairly easy to score once he gets inside the paint but sometimes the first step is the hardest. Sometimes his change of pace isn’t always great with the ball in his hands (not really when the ball is elsewhere), so mid-range pull-ups are not really his forte, but it really doesn’t need to be.
At the end of the day, guys like Vince Williams simply do not fail. If you are smart, big, strong, long, and can shoot, you will be a successful NBA player. Guys like Vince Williams are also my favorite players to bet on, with a high floor and a high ceiling. He will come into the league as a 3 and D forward with some passing ala Herb Jones, but the primary initiator flashes that he has shown throughout the year give a higher upside for Vince than many of these prebuilt, 4-year senior role players. I wouldn’t be shocked if Vince ends up as a 3rd scorer on a championship-level team, I WOULD be surprised if the same happened for Jalen Slawson. Maybe it’s because of his actually insane shooting versatility for someone his size, maybe it’s because of his ability to hit passes that other 3 and D players can only dream of, maybe it’s because he’s more like a young sophomore or young junior than a senior in college. But either way, his ability to GET PLAYING TIME WHILE DEVELOPING because he can be a valuable piece to a team while actualizing his potential is a bet that any smart GM will take, and will look really smart for taking in the next 15 years. So we are 100% clear, it is not LIKELY that Vince will be a star player and he DOESN'T have that one skill like a Paolo or a chet to set him apart, but his conglomeration of abilities to positively impact winning is something that no reasonable general manager will let slide.
An excellent combination of size, shooting, passing, and defense. Loves to battle for boards and prerotate, uses his long arms to perfection on defense. Slower feet rears its ugly head early and often but he makes up for it with craftiness. Great movement shooter or off the catch, can run a pick and roll, low-risk high-reward
Herb Jones, Deni Avdija, Joe Ingles, a splash of Bjelica, and I really really do not want to say it but a sprinkle of Draymond Green