TL;DR

• Hawks commit to a rebuild and get their 2025 and 2026 firsts back to get young talent next to Trae, Jalen Johnson, and Risacher

• Nuggets unite Serbian stars Bogdanović and Jokić and get more roster flexibility and depth

• Magic get MPJ and have a more modern 5-out offense w/o sacrificing their elite defense

• Spurs give Hawks their ‘25/‘26 firsts back for more picks in return

The Magic Perspective

Let me begin the explanation with the Magic cause I think it might be the most unexpected and confounding aspect of the trade.

Here’s how I see it. With this trade, the Magic could start

1. Jalen Suggs

2. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

3. Michael Porter Jr.

4. Franz Wagner

5. Paolo Banchero

It’s a little unorthodox, with MPJ, Franz, and Paolo all playing similar positions, but I don’t see any reason to stick firmly to rigid traditional roles. This is increasingly becoming the era of position-less basketball. This trade would give the Magic a front court with three 6’10” guys who can handle and, in all likelihood, shoot. I expect (and I imagine the Magic are operating under the assumption) that Franz and Paolo’s 3 point shooting numbers will stabilize somewhere north of 35-36% on a significant number of shots, which is mediocre for a 3/4 but very respectable for 4/5. Add MPJ to that equation and the front court shooting would be elite. Just imagine how much space Paolo or Franz would have driving into the lane passing out to MPJ, KCP, or Suggs on the perimeter. Traditional centers wouldn’t be able to guard them. Teams talk about “going small” so that they can have a lineup of players who can all dribble/pass/shoot; with this trade, the Magic could achieve that with an oversized lineup. On the defensive end, Paolo has the size and strength to defend most centers in the league and putting him on a center saves his energy for the offensive end. The Magic would still have solid traditional centers off the bench when the time calls for that (for guarding players like Jokic/Embiid/etc.). Outside of that, everyone else in the starting lineup is at least a really good defender, if not elite, plus they’d be fairly switch-able. MPJ has proven to be a quality rebounder (and that’s playing next to Jokić and AG), so between him, Paolo, and Franz, I don’t think rebounding will be an area of concern. The Magic would easily be a top 5 defensive team in the league with this trade which is primarily focused on improving the offense.

Now, for concerns about MPJ’s contract- yes, it is bad. However, he is a really good player for the price the Magic are paying for him- 1 (likely low) first, 3 seconds, a lottery pick from last year, and a couple bench players, plus none of the picks are their own. In addition, if a superstar becomes available on the trade market, the Magic can use MPJ’s contract and all the picks they still have to go get them. Most competing teams wouldn’t be willing to part with a player of MPJ’s caliber for a trade. I grant that money may get tight the next couple years as Franz, Suggs, and Paolo get paid, but the cap is expected to rise 10% per year, so I don’t really foresee that being as big of a concern as one might expect, especially with Jonathan Isaac’s heavily front-loaded contract and non-guarantees after the first two years.

They would need to sign some guards for this season, but they have plenty of cap space to work with.

The Nuggets Perspective

MPJ is a great player and fits what the Nuggets need very well, however his contract makes it almost impossible for them to fill holes in their roster which has become more and more of a problem. Sending out his big contract for two smaller ones as well as 3 second rounders provides more depth and flexibility for constructing their roster, now and in the future. In addition, Bogdanovic and Hunter do a reasonable job replacing the shooting lost by MPJ and KCP. Hunter is basically MPJ-lite and I think you’ll get the most out of Bogdanovic playing him next to Jokić as we saw in the Olympics this year. The Nuggets would also have even more shooters on the bench lineup to put around Russell Westbrook opening the paint for him to drive and pass out to quality shooters.

The starting lineup would look like

1. Jamal Murray

2. Christian Braun

3. Probably De'Andre Hunter to start the season, but could cycle in Peyton Watson/Julian Strawther depending on matchups and their individual growth

4. Aaron Gordon

5. Nikola Jokić

With Russell Westbrook, Bogdan Bogdanović, Julian Strawther, Peyton Watson, Dario Šarić, Cody Zeller, DeAndre Jordan, Cory Joseph, Vlatko Čančar, and Hunter Tyson to fill out the bench.

The Spurs Perspective

As it stands, the Hawks next two firsts are likely to fall somewhere around 10-12, not high enough for the Spurs to get one of the big names in next year’s or 2026’s draft, and that's assuming the Hawks don't make any trades to bolster their roster for this year. However, the Spurs could flip those picks for more picks similar to how Houston traded the Nets a couple of their firsts back for even more draft capital than the Rockets sent out. I wouldn't be surprised if the Lakers' and Kings' firsts end up right around where a win-now Hawks pick would land next year.

The Hawks Perspective

The Hawks have been mediocre for years. They have had a recent influx of good young talent with Jalen Johnson and Zaccharie Risacher (and I would include Onyeka Okongwu who hasn’t gotten the playing time he should due to Capela still being on the roster). They also recently acquired Dyson Daniels. Along with Trae Young who is still only 25, this is a solid young core to build around if they finally commit to moving on from the veterans. They could add a really high quality player to that core in next year’s draft if they get their 2025 first back from the Spurs and tank this year. They could also erase the swap in ‘26. In exchange for a couple solid veterans and other teams’ picks, they can focus on their young core, get control over their future, and get several young players with potential. Jett Howard is a big wing, 2023 lottery pick, who showed great shooting ability last year in the G League and in Summer League and has defensive upside. Cole Anthony is a solid young backup point guard. Goga Bitadze is a solid young-ish backup center (to fill in for Capela when he is inevitably traded). Zeke Nnaji has been underwhelming given his contract, but his first two years when Murray and MPJ were injured- before the Nuggets were truly contenders- Nnaji shot over 40% from 3 on nearly 5 attempts/36. That shows real promise for a young big on a front-loaded contract. Perhaps being back on a team without as much pressure and more consistent playing time, he could get his career back on track. And, honestly, you can probably forget about Pickett.

This trade allows the Hawks to build a big 3 and D focused lineup around Trae Young to cover up for his defensive liabilities. However, if Trae doesn't want to stick around for a short rebuild, trade talks have already begun on that front so they go ahead and pull the trigger and get more young players and draft assets for a slightly longer rebuild. I imagine putting the ball in Jalen Johnson's hands more can only be beneficial for his development. Who needs to draft Cooper Flagg when you can just develop him? Though they could always draft him too- imagine that pairing...

Please let me know what y'all think. Comments on earlier renditions of this trade helped me refine it.