The 2023 offseason for the Lakers is not going to be about trades, but focused on resigning their own free agents. What I would do with Lakers free agents in 2023.
Must Keep with Bird Rights
D'Angelo Russell - We have to keep him, but the value of his contract has a wide range. I'd be comfortable with anything from $25M-$32M. [Edit: Russell really struggled in the WCF and he might've lost some money. New ranged of contract might be $20M-$25M based on his performance.] Can be traded at the deadline if the Lakers need an upgrade.
Austin Reaves - Definitely bring this fan favorite back after letting another fan favorite go for nothing (Alex Caruso). His value keeps increasing, but Lakers have bird rights and right to match (RFA). Negotiations should start at around $12M, which is around the nontaxpayer MLE.
Rui Hachimura - He has been contributing recently with more minutes. Bring him back with negotiations starting around $12M, which is around the nontaxpayer MLE. Lakers have bird rights and right to match (RFA).
Options and Non-guaranteed
Malik Beasley - Lakers have the option to keep Beasley next year for $16.5M to possibly trade for another player (e.g. Hield). He was supposed to be our 3 point threat, but he is not producing. The decision on Beasley's contract will be heavily influenced by how much Lakers are willing to spend and the newly implemented Luxury Tax Second Apron.
Mo Bamba - I believe Bamba has a unique skillset at C and can fill a role like Brook Lopez/Myles Turner to a lesser degree. Lakers have an option to bring him back at $10.3M, which can also be used as trade salary at the deadline if needed.
Shaquille Harrison - Waive.
Free Agents with no Bird Rights Lakers
Dennis Schroder - try to bring him back as 6th man; candidate for the full taxpayer MLE of about $5M (Note: the taxpayer MLE is smaller now under the new CBA).
Lonnie Walker - Lakers can offer up to $7.8M (non-bird rights with 120% raise). Will be interesting to see how his market builds up.
Wenyen Gabriel - minimum or let him walk
Troy Brown Jr - minimum or let him walk
2023 Draft
Lakers have the 17th pick and 47th pick in the 2023 draft. If the Lakers are able to resign their own free agents, I would seriously consider trading the 2023 17th pick for a future 2024 FRP because the team will have depth, won't have minutes to develop another rookie (still have to develop Christie, Pippen, Swider), and have cap savings by removing the $3.6M cap hold for the 17th pick. Also, Bronny is eligible for the 2024 draft so Lakers could potentially have two FRP in 2024 if Pelicans defer the pick Lakers owe from 2024 to 2025. Knicks would be my target to make a a draft pick trade, especially if the Mavs pick does not convey in 2023 [Mavs will keep the 10th pick this year, so this plan still works]. Knicks will have potentially 4 FRP in 2024 and they will send the Lakers the lowest FRP (top 12 protected or lottery protected) with 1 or 2 SRP to push the selection back 1 year. The additional picks can be used in a trade at the deadline or kept for the draft. Otherwise, they just pick at 17 and 47.
https://fanspo.com/nba/s/general/trades/u_EURjI2mHlCuv/knicks-trade-for-the-lakers-2023-17th-pick
If Lakers keep the 17th pick, I would target Taylor Hendricks (likely not available), Cason Wallace (likely not available), Nick Smith Jr, Kris Murray, or Leonard Miller.
Trade Targets
As I said at the beginning, the offseason will mainly be about resigning our free agents, but here are a few role player trades depending on how negotiations go.
Ricky Rubio (PG) - he's a better playmaker that can make AD better with his passing whereas Schroder is better defensively.
Kelly Olynyk (C) - If Lakers really don't see a future with Bamba, they can trade Bamba for Olynyk.
Doug McDermott (SF) - This would be to improve the 3 point shooting. He makes about $13M there's a couple ways to make contracts match, but Spurs would have to be willing to negotiate.
Nets Wing Players - Nets are loaded with wing players and have the 21st and 22nd selections in the upcoming draft. Possible trade if Lakers want to move back in the draft. I don't think Nets will value moving up 4 or 5 spots too much, but it's possible.
Buddy Hield (SG) or Myles Turner (C) - If the Lakers really don't care about costs and second apron implications, they can try to trade for Hield or Turner. Opting into Beasley's contract and trading for Hield or Turner would work contract wise. Lakers can throw in Bamba to cut costs if needed.
Kyrie Irving (PG) - Doing a S&T for Kyrie is tricky because Lakers would get hard capped, which means they have to be ready to lose some of their depth (e.g. only Reaves is brought back, Rui is gone, Beasley option declined, and DLo+Vando+Bamba traded for Kyrie). The larger discount Kyrie is willing to take, the more role players Lakers can resign while staying under the hard cap. I don't think this is a realistic scenario as rumors are Mavericks have a hand shake deal with Kyrie for the max.
3rd String Center for Specific Matchups
AD was our starting C last year, which was pretty successful for most of the year. But there are specific matchups where it might make sense to play an athletic, physical Center that can control the boards at Center and move AD to PF. This applies to the Nuggets (Jokic), Sixers (Embiid), and Bucks (Giannis/Lopez combo). Lakers should try to sign/trade for Drummond, Dwight, Whiteside, KLove, Huff, Noel to add size for these specific matchups without committing too much in salary.
Free Agents
Lakers have only the taxpayer MLE of $5M to sign ONE free agent, then other signings will be at the minimum. As said above, the Lakers should offer the TMLE to Schroder, then they can look at other players if he decides to sign elsewhere.
TMLE: Gabe Vincent, Tre Jones (RFA), Cory Joseph, Naz Reid, Seth Curry, Jalen McDaniels, Jevon Carter
Minimum: In process, but generally, sign the best players available who could not get an MLE deal. One of the roster spots should be a 3rd string Center (Robin Lopez, Willie Cauley-Stein, Nerlens Noel, Meyers Leonard, Tristan Thompson, Omer Yurtseven, Dwight Howard).