Well obviously Kentucky is consistently a pretty stacked prospect team, same thing this year. Read on for thoughts on Cason Wallace, Adou Thiero, Oscar Tshiebwe, and more!
Cason Wallace: The most examined Kentucky prospect, Cason Wallace, at the moment, also tops the list of Kentucky prospects at the moment for me as well. Cason's main boon is blatantly his perimeter defense, where he's an absolute VIP. One paramount skill for guard defense is the strength to be a solid wall up defender. If your contact absorption isn't great, then you’re likely to get pushed around all over the place and get called for blocking fouls. Cason is the epitome of a super strong, super tough guard, using his low center of gravity to guard a wide range of opponents. He's not the biggest in terms of functional height; but he plays much bigger than his size, which allowed him to get some possessions on Michigan stud Jett Howard. Reminds me of Kyle Lowry in this aspect. In other areas, Cason is a pretty great lateral mover, understands how to turn and run, and has some impressive verticality contests (don't expect too much rim rotation stuff, but he's pretty active using his length in the passing lanes/dig steal situations). I'm not sure he's necessarily a Marcus Smart or Jrue Holiday level defender because of multiple concerns: sometimes he's a bit too physical and "jumpy" defensively (which is normal for a college point guard), and his screen nav can be pretty egregious at times, I noticed he got hammered a ton in Kentucky's games. Nonetheless, Cason's still a top tier guard defender in this class, and that probably earns his NBA minutes the most. I buy his catch and shoot stuff, though he doesn't have a ton of shooting versatility. Good upper body mechanics, form definitely checks out, good arc + a quick enough release. He gets his feet set effectively and projects to have NBA range at the next level. Don't expect too much off the dribble stuff; Cason hasn't shown the level of volume or comfortability with his ball pickups for any of that; but off the ball, he should be able to shoot off a bit of movement and at a stationary spot, from all over the floor. Similarly, the playmaking is solid, as he can control the tempo of an offense and make good reads in the PNR (projects to be a good interior passer because he has to feed Oscar Tshiebwe and run a decent amount of pick and rolls). He can passwith one or two hands and is pretty accurate. His lack of burst makes me worried about his overall self creation and rim pressure; he shouldn't be asked to do that at the next level (I will say the shooting context of Kentucky isn’t great for judging rim pressure). The handle isn't great either, so I'm not really sure if I classify Cason as an actual "point guard", but rather an on/off combo type. In terms of archetypes that actually fit his mold, I think Patrick Beverley seems like a really good comp. Competes his tail off offensively, solid shooter, solid playmaker, not actually a point guard though. Mayyyyybe Marcus Smart if everything hits for him, but at the end of the day, even if he isn't a DPOY candidate, Cason is going to hit because of his awesome perimeter defense and solid ancillary skills to support that.
Adou Thiero: ADOU! ADOU! ADOU! The NBA draft sleeper of today’s generation. He's gotten limited minutes so far, so I haven't gotten a ton of opportunities to analyze his game, but there's some interesting stuff based on the bahamas tape and some of the early season flashes. Starting with the still growing argument, it's true there have been some rumors Adou could get up to 6-11 by the time he stops growing, which makes for even more intriguing upside (and also why I think he's going to be more of a multiyear guy). However, I'm operating under the assumption that he doesn't grow much, and will analyze his on court play. A cardinal rule I’ve come to learn through evaluating prospects: don't buy too much into something happening when it's not definitive that it will happen (wordy but hopefully you get the point). Now, getting to the on court product, I think Adou has some really interesting wing skills. He moves super fluidly with the rock, shows some legit comfortability out there. His form seems to check out, I don't have the percentages at the moment but I think I'm gonna buy the catch and shoot stuff. And he also seems pretty advanced for his age at reading the defense. So there's some offensive stuff there. The question is if there's more upside to be unlocked than strictly a pretty versatile dribble + pass + shoot wing. Adou's handle isn't great (not creator esque where you could rely on him running on an isolation) but that could be negated by him growing 5 inches taller and becoming the next Leonard Miller. He's far from a polished finisher from a physical and touch standpoint, but he's shown some legit rim pressure flashes. And there have been tiny spurts of shooting versatility in preseason games. The added bonus of his theoretical upside could prove a boon, though I'm not necessarily counting on it. Defensively he seems like a pretty positive team defender overall, making solid rotations and dig steals. On ball he has some pretty good lateral quickness and solid upside, though he's not much of an elite events creator (not an elite athlete). Overall, Adou is a really interesting bet if he does come out this year. If you're betting on his star upside, he's definitely a project, but as a do it all wing with potential self creation, I think Adou could be a pretty alluring bet in the early second round.
Oscar Tshiebwe: I've notoriously changed my mind on Tshiebwe for as long as he has been a legitimate prospect in NBA draft circles. The questions that usually go through the minds of Tshiebwe skeptics? How is he going to fit into an NBA floor? Ish is post up game and physicality going to translate? Is he mobile enough? Tall enough?? Athletic enough to be an NBA center? Yep, all those questions have merit when evaluating a tricky prospect in Tshiebwe, but honestly I feel like there’s a role out there for him. I won’t value him that highly on my big board this year since I think this role has little to no value when it actually matters, but I see a Harrell type outcome for Tshiebwe’s career. Think of the similarities. Tshiebwe’s main NBA skill is his rebounding and physicality under the basket, and his mismatch interior skill (combination of size + mobility (he’s shown improved athleticism) makes him borderline unguardable at times in college basketball). He’s more of a screener and rim roller than a shooter (though he has made attempts to improve in this respect) isn’t mobile enough to be featured in the aggressive pick and roll coverages (hedge + switch + show/blitz). He camps out in the paint and is more so an undersized rim protector that can get away with it against most opponents in regular games, but cans be exposed against more advanced opponents in the playoffs. Basically, I’m envisioning Tshiebwe to add a lot of punch as a backup big in the regular season, but not a whole lot of value in the postseason because of his lack of versatility. And that’s fine! I just don’t value it at a high level since a lot of other role players can offer more to the table. If his shot can legitamitely hit to where he has a semblance of spacing on the floor, then there’s an outcome where he does pose some merit for a contending team. But besides that, Tshiebwe is a really good bet to be a stat padder in the G League or a stats hub at the end of the bench, and nothing more.
Jacob Toppin: Toppin is another one of those funky, athletic forwards that show NBA level versatility, and someone all of us draftniks want to develop a three point shot. While he isn’t as athletic as his brother, Obi, he still has a ton of functional athleticism that caught my eye in the games I assessed. Super mobile roller, a lob threat, gets back in transition, has some intriguing rim rotations, great lateral footspeed, he has the full package to display his athleticism on both ends. His defensive versatility is one of the more intriguing things about him on the floor, something a ton of NBA teams could use to their advantage. Elite activity on or off the ball, switchable, and also super active in rim/help side rotations (makes up for Oscar’s less than ideal recovery time as a rim protector a lot while he’s on the floor). He should be long enough to play multiple positions (even small ball five at times if it’s needed against certain bigs) and add a ton of value in that area, from a team and man to man aspect. The only qualm I have with the defense is the foul trouble, as he gets himself ingrained in foul problems in different aspects: his verticality as a rim protector isn’t always consistent, and he can get a bit too physical on the ball. Nonetheless, I still love some of Toppin’s defensive stuff. The main question about him is whether he’s an NBA player offensively. If Toppin stepped on an NBA floor today, I’d probably classify him as a small ball 4/5 who mainly actsas a play finisher, roller, offensive rebounder, opportunistic scorer, and decent connective passer for his archetype. The shooting development is really going to be paramount for him if he wants an NBA role, or else the only way I could see him get rotational minutes in playoff situations is being a small ball five and GOATED defender with a ton of versatility. I’m not sure Toppin has that latter ability, so I’ve been keen to track his shooting development this year. One encouraging trend is that he’s shot a surprising amount of volume mid range jumpers, at the baseline, in the short roll from the top of the key, even some occasional one dribble pull ups/face up jumpers have gone in for him. That’s a good thing; it shows he has touch, the work ethic to improve his shot, and a decent form. The other side of this is that Toppin has shot 17.6 percent from three and 64 percent from the line, and is also a 22 year old without great volume (2.1 attempts) on his threes. I’m worrying he may not get the developmental time to really hone in on his mid range jumper. Regardless, Toppin is a really interesting versatile big wing type bet that I think should get looks in undrafted free agency.
Chris Livingston: Chris Livingston is a guy that probably won’t be ranked on my board for a while because of the limited Kentucky tape and also the fact I didn’t analyze much of him at Oak Hill. My impressions of him, though, have been this: not a great perimeter defender because of abhorrent screen nav and questionable footwork/technique, has some straight line driving upside but not an elite handle to boot, shows some mid range equity but it doesn’t look good enough that he’ll be “allowed” to take those shots at the next level, not a great shoote ror playmaker either. I question the NBA fit for Livingston, though I need to analyze more of him.
Antonio Reeves: Reeves has been lowkey one of my favorite players to watch on the team, he’s such a good connective piece for him. He’s probably not an NBA guy because he isn’t good enough at any one skill to be a high level role player, but I think he’s still made a quiet impact for this Kentucky team. He flares out for three point shots really well and can knock down a pretty good volume of those, he’s long and fairly active defensively, can occasionally run a pick and roll and hit short jumpers as well. Shouldn’t be relied on to do anything with the basketball at the next level, and no real differentiator NBA skill, but Reeves should still find a spot with some professional team because he’s just the classic definition of an basketball role player: he takes advantage and creates his own opportunities when you forget about him.
CJ Frederick: Frederick will probably be ranked higher on the board than Reeves just because he has a superior NBA skill (shooting). But I’m not super high on his role player potential since he can do absolutely nothing dribbling the basketball, which may make him more of a liability on the floor. He gets stripped super easily and doesn’t really generate rim pressure, even off a closeout. As a connective piece, he’s fine. His movement shooting should generate interest from professsional teams. But doing absolutely nothing with the basketball may prove to be his downfall, determining whether he sticks or not. The defensive stuff doesn’t matter too much, Frederick is the classic (white) shooter who tries defensively and earns some respect but actually can’t really guard on ball and should be hidden. Overall, there’s an outcome for Frederick to succeed, but I’m not banking on him being a super high level shooting bet in the draft this year.
Daimion Collins: Hasn’t gotten a lot of playing time and will probably never be a super highly ranked prospect until he does get playing time, but I still, at times, occasionally find myself enamored with Daimion Collins. You feel the AD comps with the elite vertical plane athleticism for play finishing. The touch into his pop jumpers. His long, lanky, spindly, athletic frame. The fact both players when to Kentucky. The switchability and insane defensive upside. The only caveat: Collins has been well known as a boom or bust, and he isn’t the sure thing everyone knew AD was heading up to that 2012 NBA draft.
Ugonna Onyenso: Just about guaranteed to be a multiyear guy, but Ugonna shows some really intriguing potential. 7 feet, 7-5 wingspan, with 195 pounds. I think we’ve come to understand the skills bigs in Ugonna’s prototype need; elite rim protection and mobility with the hope that the said center can get strong enough to handle the big bodies of the NBA. Ugonna’s rim protection is FREAKY at times; elite timing, length, and vertical plane athleticism is part of it. If he becomes this switchable, versatile defensive monster who blocks shots at an unfair rate (well that’s an upgrade from Oscar) then Kentucky might have a stud. Offensively there isn’t John Butler level touch here, but Ugonna should project to be a serviceable play finisher (shouldn’t be trusted to do much with the ball in his hands right now). With a couple years more of development, I legit think we could see Ugonna hyped up as an NBA prospect.