Written by: Amdaymond, Jryte, and the Raptor
The NBL, which plays in the tiniest continent in this world, has come a long way as a basketball league. It does not feature the mighty EuroLeague behemoths like Real Madrid or Barcelona, and is still far off from being in the top tier of great leagues, but its talent pool is vastly developing, with former NBA players coming in to play all over Australia and numerous teams vying for a title each year. The Next Star Program has brought great attention to the league as well from a scouting perspective, opening up lanes for other players to shine and get into the league while catapulting LaMelo Ball, Josh Giddey, RJ Hampton, Ousmane Dieng, Rayan Rupert, and others onto NBA rosters. This year, the league has several prospects, including one top 5 projected pick. For all draft junkies, the league isn't necessarily a pool like college basketball where you can watch five lottery picks on any given Saturday. But they're playing good basketball over there, and it's definitely worth watching and following from just a fan perspective. With that, me, Spurs, and Raptor have agreed to team up on a project covering the NBL, not only its prospects, but the league in general. Enjoy! We'll start off with the man who's been headlining boards, Alexandre Sarr!
Alex Sarr
7-1
7-5 wingspan
Draft Age 19.2
217 pounds
Each of us wrote three detailed scouting reports on Sarr. We might as well begin with the man who has Alex Sarr is Goat on his display name.
TheRaptor:
Offense
Alex Sarr is one of the most unique seven footers you will ever come across offensively. He plays almost like Giannis when he has a full head of steam, driving to the hoop and getting himself baskets like he is playing against middle schoolers, not professional basketball players. His mobility and length give him an edge over almost every player who tries to stop him on these drives, which gives him an advantage most of the time. This is absolutely his best skill on this side of the ball right now, and perhaps the one that has the most potential to be elite in the NBA. The rest of his offense is not as in your face, but he shows flashes in so many areas right now. I actually kind of buy into his passing ability right now. He can draw a lot of attention because of how he plays the game, which gives him opportunities to make good passes that he can actually connect on sometimes. Now there are times where he can make bad decisions as a passer, but the flashes really intrigue me. The same kind of goes for his shot. He is not super consistent as a shooter right now, but has a fluid form that has the potential to be deadly in the NBA. The key for this is to be consistent, which is easier said than done. However, based on how Sarr has performed this year, I have hope that it can happen.
Defense
Defense is where the upside of Alex Sarr truly illuminates itself. Before we talk about that though, you gotta know the weak points of his defense. Sarr is not the greatest decision maker right now as a defender. There are times where I would want to yell at my computer screen for him to play more help defense or stop just standing around waiting for the game to come to him. However, when Sarr is on, he is ON. He might be one of the most mobile 7 footers I have seen in my entire life, and he can use that to his advantage on the defensive end. This helps him display both skills away and close to the basket, but I really like what he can do close to the basket. Sarr has so much blocking upside due to his combo of height and mobility. There are times where he looks like a master shot blocker, not letting anyone get anything in the paint. Unfortunately there are other times where he doesn’t look good on that end, making some poor decisions that lead to the opposing team scoring.
Conclusion
Alex Sarr might have a higher ceiling than any other prospect in this draft. If he reaches his ceiling, Sarr could be one of the best defensive players in the NBA and a dominant scorer on the other end with (maybe) some passing chops. However, Sarr doesn’t have a very high floor. If he doesn’t hit, Sarr could really struggle to find a role on an NBA team. So as a GM with a top pick in this draft, you will have to ask yourself: is it worth the risk to draft a guy who could potentially be the best player out of this draft class? For me, I would say yes. Sarr’s potential makes it worth the risk. I would consider taking him in the 3-5 range in the draft as an NBA GM right now.
Spurs:
Alex Sarr is, I think, is actually one of the toughest evals in this class. For a variety of reasons I am a bit scared to write on him, but I’ll give it my best shot. I’m a bit scared because of the sheer duality of his game. A real scenario is that I could go on record saying he is a legendary defender and then he goes on to have an awful defensive season. With Sarr, it is going to be important to weigh contrasting values, and be careful of over or under evaluation. Starting on the defensive end of the court, his potential is not from this world. He gives off very trancendenty Giannisy vibes. The thing is, however, he gets scored on far too often. His mobile, fluid frame is both a blessing and a curse. He tends to roam, like A LOT. And the thing is that he isn’t actually quite quick enough to go out and defend guards on the perimeter. His recovery speed isn’t good enough to do that sort of thing, and it leaves the rim open for interior penetration. Now I’m not trying to say that he isn’t an incredibly mobile big man. His fluidity and mobility is phenomenal. However, he tries to play too much out of his ideal role. I don’t want to knock this against him too much since a lot of this comes down to coaching. But also, he is trying to show what he can do on the perimeter. I respect the heck out of that.
It isn’t his ideal role at the moment, but maybe that shouldn’t be held against him. If he does get the half a step quicker that he needs, he really can become a weapon. What worries me is that none of his defense is really too great. It isn’t just on the perimeter that he gets burned. Bigger, smarter offensive players like to play with him and get him jumpy. This leads to wide open shots at the rim and unfortunate stuff like that. Lowkey, Sarr is very liable to giving up open shots when he would be able to contest. I don’t think that he is always intentionally lazy however. There are many times where he assumes someone else is going to pick up a certain man, but it is his responsibility to help. This ends up making him look very bad. Even on ball, the amount of times I’ve seen him contest a shot and still get scored on due to lack of vertically is frightening. Nonetheless, he is young and is early in the season of a professional league so I’m really trying not to overreact to anything. On a more positive note, he is VERY mobile at his size. Even after everything I said, his mobility truly is a strength. I just don’t think he can defend guards. If he plays into his rim protection and weak side shot blocking abilities more, he’ll be far better off and actually be able to use his tools. The shot block timing is off but he still will collect more than his fair share blocks by swallowing up shots with his length. So all in all, I am definitely concerned with some of his defensive awareness concerns and such. However, his defensive upside still has me feeling sparky.
The offensive side of the ball also seems to bring some unanswered questions. I do, however, probably like Sarr’s offensive floor a lot better than his defensive floor. He brings the size and speed to make transition and semi-transition plays look like it’s nothing. That really is his biggest offensive attribute. His ability to use his momentum to force the ball towards the hoop is quite something. When he has some speed going and some open space to operate, that is when his craft starts to kick in. His ball skills aren’t perfect but they are serviceable in space. Sarr can really use his height and length to create impressive finishes. I think it’s time to chase down the shot and tackle it like 1982 Anthony Munoz. Alexandre’s jumpshot is a work in progress that I’m really hopeful about. While the form maybe isn’t the most consistent and his misses can be ugly, it looks REALLY smooth for a seven footer. His touch on both his shot and his passes as well is actually not terrible. He certainly isn’t afraid of being put on a highlight reel.
All things considered, I’m fantastically bullish on the future player that Alex Sarr can and will become. Like every prospect he has his wrinkly spots. Also like every prospect he has his ridiculous flashes. Combining what he can do in the future and what he already does at a certain level, the upside is enough to warrant top three consideration.
Amdaymond
In writing this scouting report for Alex Sarr, I knew it would be a lengthy undertaking, as the brother of Olivier is blatantly an enigma in this draft class. Just like Evan Mobley, just like Chet Holmgren, and just like Victor Wembanyama, we're seeing another iteration in the proliferation of 7 foot guys who can shoot, can move, and have ball skills. It's an exciting archetype, but one I think we'll value less and less as time goes on and the populace for these players eventually increases. But for now, while it's still relatively fresh and new, I just marvel at what this man can do and what his ceiling is.
The first thing, before we discuss any of the technical stuff in the skillset of Sarr's game, we must confront why he's being projected as a top 5 pick currently: his frame, his movement skills, and athleticism. When you put on some tape of Sarr, you notice the way he moves: so smooth, gliding on the floor and fluidly executing his movements as if he were at dance class. This is a key central part that unlocks some of his game, including the transition scoring and recovery speed on D. Like the previous 7 footers, Sarr is lanky, but not as lanky as someone like Chet, as he has some legitimate muscle. 217 pounds isn't super strong, but it's not terrible either, and Sarr has shown some flashes of making contact in numerous facets of the game. Most importantly, what stands out is his length, which allows him to take longer strides and do so many things on the court.
Let's start with the defense. When looking at Sarr, you just know he has the upside to be an elite rim protector. Length, quick springiness on the floor, the ground coverage to get in help defense, and just a bunch of twitchy movements that help with hip flexibility. It isn't perfect at times, as the reflexes and anticipation can be off, his high center of gravity makes it easier for him to get bullied by the NBL's bigs and scored on a hook shot, and he has learn to walk the line of when to help, and when to not help, a key skill for bigs. Here's the good news, though: he's not playing against some inefficient guards in the SEC. He's playing NBL point guards who can legit score. Heck, he's playing Bryce Cotton, probably the best small guard NBL scorer, in practice everyday! This'll prepare him and help him get acclimated to the tendencies and the tricks guards and wings and use at the rim to get him jumpy and off balance: floaters, off timing layups, inside hand, contact creation, etc. Hence, I think as the season goes on we see him more consistent as a rim protector. He already has the intimidation factor of being a 7-1 guy with a 7-5 wingspan and a great second jump.
Now let's get to the perimeter defense. I have no doubt he can defend, and even smother bigs on the perimeter, thanks to his IQ using his hands and his ability to slide his feet. It gets trickier when facing more crafty bigs and quick guards however. Even with the athleticism and the want to to play defense, a few things slow down Sarr. His footwork is far from perfect, frequently crossing his feet which can get him burned on stepbacks. He has a tendency to be lulled to sleep and he's not the quickest accelerator. And bigger players can just bump him, completely making it impossible for him to jump high. All of those are valid concerns and things he's going to need to tighten up on. However, the flashes of elite perimeter defense captivating. He slowed down Ron Holland, had an amazing block on Milton Doyle, an elite scorer in the NBL. He's shown flashes of sliding his feet and being strong enough to absorb contact and wall up on opponents. If he continues to work on the footwork and get stronger, I really think his lateral mobility, mixed with the recovery ground coverage and length when he does get beat, could make him an unstoppable defender. In terms of PNR defense Perth plays a hard hedge scheme with two mobile bigs in Keanu Pinder and Sarr, which Sarr did pretty well in. I'm curious to see him play in more drop and how he plays the cat and mouse game, but I think teams should be comfortable switching him at the NBA level. If you've gotten this far (chances are 0.05 percent) say duck and I'll like your next five posts.
The offense is very similar to the defense. A whole lot of flashes, a whole lot of ugly mistakes. Let's get the cynicism, the Oscar the Grouch spirit out of my body before I venerate Sarr's elite flashes. His footwork, like the defense, needs work. He travels a TON on closeouts, something you'll see in abundance in the GLI games, and that can really hurt him. His handle's impressive, but still not elite in tight space. The touch can be there one second, and then vanish in an instant. However, the flashes are really interesting. I don't envision Sarr necessarily breaking down guys at the top of the key with a bunch of dribble moves, but rather using his length and stride length for more simple stuff. This includes a ton of face up opportunities. He's shown a hook shot, smooth as silk fadeaway jumpers, jab moves, and a decent ability to get to the rim, especially with a head of steam. In transition, he's capable of executing grab and gos and getting to the rim, and shows a bag, with some Giannis like euro steps. If he can continue expanding his repertoire, he could be one of the top 3 options on a really good team. And he's shown some really impressive passing flashes as a processor at the top of the key, making bounce passes to open cutters and just knowing when to give the ball up. His passes can sometimes be extremely inaccurate and sometimes he can flat out miss a read, but the flashes in that regard give me some real hope.
In terms of how he'll fit off ball, I feel like he'll be fine if he can shoot. And he's shown some flashes getting into smooth pick and pops and C&S jumpers. He has to learn how to shoot the same shot every single time, generate power from his legs to get some real arc, and just make the touch more consistent. He'll be a good roller if he can learn to make consistent contact on his screens, as he has an amazing lob radius. And I trust he'll be active enough to get into the dunker's spot and make plays in transition.
Overall, Sarr has a ton of potential, and just like Wembanyama and Chet and Mobley I'm not sure where to place his ceiling. We're going to have to wait a considerable amount of time to see how guys' careers, like Chet, JJJ, Evan, and Wemby's play out to have an idea of what a player's career in this archetype looks like. But I have a feeling that the distinctiveness of his game could make him a real star. There's a low chance he ever becomes a No. 1 option, but a potential DPOY candidate and top 3 option on a contending team, as well as a potential passing hub sounds good to me. I'm completely comfortable taking a bet on Alex Sarr, even if he never polishes, because the ceiling is through the roof.
Thanks for reading Part 1. Next parts will be up in the coming days.