Archetype: "Unicorn Big"

In draft scouting, we probably all need to admit we use one certain term way too much as draftniks. There are overused terms like a connector, but a lot of times we overuse the term unicorn immediately after we see a 7-foot big have guard skills and block shots. Even though the idea of a big who can do these things is enticing, recent history shows that unicorn bigs rarely actually pan out to reach their potential. First, look at Kristaps Porzingis. He was obviously talented especially offensively and had so much potential, but that progress has been slowed because of major injuries, which is always a concern for the lanky big. How about Aleksej Pokusevski? Some unicorns struggle to find their role and niche and despite showing flashes of being a great player, are probably a net negative because they don’t have an NBA skill to hang their hat on. Sure, Evan Mobley has succeeded - and a big part why is because of his insane mobility, shot blocking to hang his hat on, and some tantalizing offensive potential is there as well. But, he still has been helped by his situation in Cleveland. With Jarett Allen playing center, he hasn’t had to always bang with centers from Day 1, and he could comfortably focus on his strengths on both ends. The Cavs also have the patience to let him develop his offense. This makes scouting French big Victor Wembanyama so freaking hard. I bet you’ve heard this sentence before with a guy like Chet Holmgren or even John Butler Jr. during last year’s draft process, but we’ve never seen a prospect like Wemby (as he is affectionately called) before - ever. Poku couldn’t dream of the rim protection and mobility that Wemby has defensively. Same for Porzingis, hampered by injuries. Chet isn’t as athletic and is basically a Victor Wembanyama LITE, as Wembanyama does basically everything just a bit better than him. Evan Mobley may have similar defensive tools, but he doesn’t sniff the shooting range that Victor has on his shot. Not to mention, not even the lengthy unicorns we have seen previously match Victor’s generational length, as he may be a legit 7-5 (more on that in a second). Oh, and he’s starting to build up his self creation, handle, and post game. The tools and the flashes are obviously 100 percent tantalizing, but it gets hard to buy into those flashes because there are so few prior examples that lay the blueprint out for Victor to succeed. To answer this question, of whether Victor can be a successful unicorn, I have been heavily scrutinizing him and scouting. So enough talk, let’s get to what Wemby does on the court.

Hold on a minute. Before we actually get to the court, with Wembanyama, the measurements and physical tools may be the most tantalizing thing with him, so it feels appropriate to start there. Yes, sometimes height specifically does not play a factor in why a specific prospect is highly ranked (or lowly ranked). Sometimes, though, it does. Height can allow you to guard multiple positions. If Tari Eason was only 6-4, he never would’ve been as versatile in defensive lineups and, despite probably being a good guard defender, would be less valuable defensively. The NBA is shifting to tall guards and unicorns, AKA lengthy, skilled bigs. Yes, there are still exceptions like Steph, Dame, or Chris Paul - or more recently Darius Garland and Trae Young - that succeed despite their small stature, but the NBA is just getting taller every single day. So, looking at Wemby’s height could just elevate his stock even further. Backtrack to the FIBA U19s. We’ll discuss Wemby’s playing in that tournament later, but I want to focus on one specific photo. The All-Tournament team was announced, consisting of 2022 top picks Jaden Ivey and Chet Holmgren, 2022 first round pick Nikola Jovic, and Purdue center Zach Edey. Ivey was obviously the shortest, at 6-4. Then was Nikola Jovic, now 6-11 but probably a bit shorter at that tournament (he’s still growing). Chet was 7-1. And Zach Edey, of course, is 7-4 and the mountain of a man. And Wemby was taller than every single one of them. Listed at 7-2, this may be an old listing from 2019 when he started playing professional basketball at 15, so he probably had a growth spurt. The fact that Wemby is (or maybe, let’s just hope Purdue wasn’t lying about Edey being 7-4) 7-5 is one of the most scary things you will ever see from a prospect - unless he’s going to your own team. If there’s one thing for sure, Wemby is going to win quite a lot of jump balls throughout his NBA career. A prospect with so much skill and IQ can’t be this tall. A supposed physical downside with Wemby is his weight, which is always a question with the skinny 7-footer. Injuries are always a question. And that may be a valid concern for the “Scoot for No. 1” camp! Wemby missed the end of the season for Asvel because of a muscle injury, a bone bruise limited him, and he dealt with a stress fracture in 2020 and 2021. He MUST stay healthy to reach the coveted ceiling. However, if you’re concerned about Wemby adding weight, then you’re clearly overthinking him. Just this past year, Wemby weighed 210 pounds, which was unimpressive. The strength was probably going to be an issue. But he did add about 20 pounds of muscle without losing his elite mobility. If he’s 40 pounds bigger than Chet Holmgren and in that Kristaps Porzingis type range in terms of weight, that is a huge win. He has shown that he is more willing to withstand contact in several areas of the game, including setting screens and trying to defend in the post. Wembanyama must be careful to not add too much weight that would limit his foot speed, but I wouldn’t be totally opposed to throwing him out in the post. And there are more micro qualities that Wembanyama has that make him so unstoppable on the basketball court. Evaluating athleticism isn’t just about using NBA combine numbers. There are specific qualities that make basketball players great. It’s why Steve Nash, known as a non athlete, was so great - he was good in specific areas that made him technically athletic on the basketball court. It can be the ability to play low to the ground and sell moves by shifting weight to a specific leg, like Kyrie Irving or Kemba Walker. For Wemby, the combination of flexible hips that turn quickly, being able to get off the floor fairly quickly off the first and second jump, foot speed, ankle flexibility to recover, ground coverage with long strides, coordination (with the body and the hand and eye), insane fluidity, dexterity, good hands, catch and block radius, lateral mobility, and body control combined with a high motor make him a freak athlete ALONG with the generational length he possesses (it’s not surprising since it his dad was a long jumper and his mom played ball herself). So this 7-5, 230 pound frame combined with the priorception and micro physical qualities gives him a clear advantage over most prospects and could make him on the radar of some scouts right away, encouraging him to pursue basketball. But it’s the combination of physical tools and skill that make Victor Wembanyama so tantalizing.

I can’t believe I just wrote a page on specific physical qualities Wemby has, but I have to give every single variable so sue me. Let’s get to what he actually contributes to the court instead of the qualities that give him a head start over his competition. The first place you have to start is his impeccable, generational, incredible, awesome, fantastic defensive ability that would probably make him a lottery prospect automatically (assuming that he’s at least average offensively and not Yannick Nzosa-esque). There are a lot of prototypical big men that are dubbed rim protectors and intimidators, but if you want a clear definition of what that looks like just go watch some Victor Wembanyama film. Before we get into the scouting side of the shot blocking skill and the ability to deter shots (an ability that is quite underrated in the game of basketball; sometimes you won’t get the perfect timing on a blocked shot, but you can still significantly alter it and deter it), let’s spill some stats. Let’s go back all the way to 2019, where Wembanyama started his professional career. During the summer, he competed for France during the FIBA U16s tournament (France did well, losing to Spain and gaining silver medals) and averaged a mind boggling, obscene 5.3 blocks per game during the tournament. Imagine if he did that in an NBA game. And he averaged 3.16 blocks playing for all teams during the 2019-20 season (playing 19.8 minutes per game!), although he had a significant decrease once he played against higher competition (1.45 blocks in 19 minutes a game). If you thought those stats weren’t enough, then Wemby increased his block average and averaged 5.7 blocks during the FIBA U19s, a bonkers number. And he averaged 1.76 blocks playing for Asvel Basket this past season in only 17 minutes per game in all competition, which would translate to in between 3 or 4 blocks a game, probably 3.5. And if he did that across his entire career, he would break the block record. The stats may be enough to sway you on the shot blocking, but watching his film, it’s even more impressive. Victor is a generational rim protector and a defensive force so great that it can completely change the opposing team’s gameplan. Yeah, yeah, we’ve heard of the centers who can get 2 blocks, but Victor (as evidenced by the stats) takes it to another level. The physical qualities definitely help. He can jump off of either foot, has a nice second jump, gets off the floor quickly and doesn’t need to load too much, fantastic timing, great anticipation of when the ball handler is going to go up for the finish, blocks shots with either hand, the reaction time and hand eye coordination helps him track the ball in the air, and has awesome, awesome length (not to be redundant, but Victor’s length is so great that I need to keep saying that it’s generational or awesome). He contests EVERYTHING. You’re going to have to be absurdly crafty with a high arcing floater with the off foot or an inside hand finish to get it over Victor, and he’ll still probably block you. Even if the rotations are a tad too late or a tad too over eager, he can still easily block the shot. That’s how lengthy he is. His best contribution (as with a lot of rim protectors) is using his amazing ground coverage to come from nowhere and block shots as the low man on the weak side. He plays the cat and mouse game pretty well in the pick and roll; he uses his length to prevent a clear passing lane for a lob, while forcing the guard to pull up for the mid range jumper. Then, he can box out and get the rebound. Little things like that make Victor an awesome rim protector. He’s not going to be perfect by any means as he is prone to biting for fakes and moves (such as a jump hook in the post, while Victor is pretty quick off the ground he’s not THAT quick to block the shot) and he does get called for goaltending sometimes + some foul trouble issues are there, but Wemby usually does a good job of jumping vertically on his contests and not fouling and is great at blocking shots. Not to mention, he’s learning the legendary Bill Russell tactic and paying attention to the detail: blocking a shot but keeping the ball in play and batting it to a nearby teammate to start a fastbreak. He turns defense into offense more often than not in these situations. Plus, Victor is an absolute intimidator. He can go on what I like to call block streaks, where on multiple possessions he blocks shots over and over and over, just deflating the other team and making sure they’re put to bed. Guards always have to be cognizant of where Victor is on the floor - if they don’t want to be blocked. I’ve seen ball handlers driving to the rim and looking like they’re about to finish - until Victor steps in and they’re like, “Nope, I’m not trying to embarrass myself playing the game I love, I’m going to kick it out.” Once Wemby inevitably joins a team that is tanking like OKC, San Antonio, Houston, etc., once they come to town to play the Heat I will be so afraid of Wemby, very afraid indeed.

I am of the belief that interior defense is the most valuable part of playing defense. It can never hurt to have a defensive anchor that can make up for the mistakes of God awful perimeter defenders (ask Jazz fans, or soon to be Timberwolves fans). The only way you truly change an offensive game plan is when you take away an entire tool, an entire area, which is the paint for most bigs. Victor is masterful at that. So is fellow Frenchman Rudy Gobert. However, while interior defense is supposed to be your forte defensively as a big, it doesn’t hurt at all to have a little more versatility defensively. It’s why so many teams are crazing for unicorns these days. They’re quick, they’re agile, and they add a completely different element to a team’s defense by being versatile, scalable, or switchable in defensive lineups. Victor is exactly that. One issue I had with Chet Holmgren during last year’s pre-draft process, for example, was that I didn’t trust his athleticism much at all. Chet was the best defender in the class last year because he was the best rim protector, with ridiculous length. But I didn’t trust his switchability as much as, say, Evan Mobley, who was super fluid and quick in all of his movements. Victor has that Mobley-esque switchability - and he’s a few inches taller and a bit bigger. In terms of the defensive stance, Victor relies on his back a bit more than his knees to bend down lowly, but please, name a 7-5 player who had elite lower body flexibility at this age. That’s what I thought. He’s awesome at flipping his hips and changing his direction to transition from a slide to a sprint, key microskills for defending along the perimeter. He moves so well and the fluidity and coordination is there. He’s not quick enough laterally to necessarily cut off guys, but the recovery tools in terms of the speed and length more than make up for it. The ankle flexibility allows him to decelerate going towards one direction, then recover back to the other direction. Victor can contain a drive and then block a shot once the ball handler gets into the paint, which fudges up the block numbers even more. The defensive footwork and intensity is definitely there (not surprising since he actually played soccer). Not to mention, Victor’s combination of length and athleticism is so nutty that he can block shots from the perimeter, which really ticks opposing guards off. It’s like when they think that they just beat him with a well sold crossover into a stepback, they have to deal with Victor’s insane recovery abilities and subsequently get blocked. It feels very weird to say this for someone who’s 7-feet tall, but Victor can make smart dig steal attempts (?) and reads the passing lanes very well using his basketball IQ and defensive awareness to his advantage. He’s not just a block guy defensively, he can legitimately get multiple steals in games. I will say one thing negative about Victor’s perimeter defense: I didn’t like his closeouts, especially during the FIBA competitions. Victor made some pretty lazy ones during both tournaments, and I wonder if this was the product of how France played basketball or just some meh effort from Victor on his part. Maybe he didn’t want to give up ideal defensive positioning and allow for an open driving lane, or maybe France’s scheme was set on Victor mostly just staying in the paint and protecting that entire area. Whatever the case, I still want to see Wemby making better closeouts in the NBA, especially if he plays power forward ala KAT next to Gobert. Overall, Wemby’s impact on smaller players shouldn’t be underestimated. His length will make it hard to shoot from inside or out; he won’t be perfect by any means, but guards won’t relish the opportunity to take Wembanyama off the dribble as much as they would with other bigs.

At this point, it’s pretty obvious what draftniks opposed to betting on unicorns will say to back up their opinion: “They’re too lanky. They won’t be able to handle the rigors of the NBA. They are going to be a liability when the Jokics and Embiids come into town.” I am simply tired of this criticism and am about to debunk it. First, who can handle Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid from scoring points. Sure, a center might be built 250 pounds, but they may not be skilled enough defensively to stop the brute force of Embiid and the ridiculously versatile offensive package of Jokic. Second, just because someone isn’t an awesome post defender doesn’t mean they aren’t great defenders. The NBA is evolving, and post play isn’t the staple of the game as it was during previous eras. There are new requirements for being a great defender, such as being able to help on the weak side as a low man, having the mobility and IQ to switch onto guards, etc. It isn’t just about chasing to stop a star post big anymore. Bigs have to be much more versatile than that, and I say that makes the game better rather than worse. And if you say Wemby is just a tad too small to handle the physicality of the NBA, I just don’t know what to say with you. As we just discussed, he actually has a pretty good frame at 230 pounds, although in post defense the strength concerns are still evident. He extends his arms to kind of offset the backing down that the post player does, and that won’t fly in the NBA; this may lead to Wemby getting in foul trouble, which can leave a major hole in a team. Still, while he isn’t Chet Holmgren tough, he doesn’t completely shy away from contact. He’s going to battle and fight and that’s all you want if you’re a head coach. To end the defensive section, let’s discuss Wemby’s rebounding skill. I tend to not notice rebounding too much in my evaluation of prospects, and I hope to improve this during this cycle. What I did notice about Wemby’s rebounding is that it was actually pretty good, no matter what you say about the weight. He boxes out his man fairly well, even if he has to struggle through it at times, and his length allows him to just get it over hopeless, smaller centers who are jealous of Wemby’s unbelievable physical tools. Even if he doesn’t get the best position for rebounds, he still will probably get a lot of tip rebounds. Overall, while Wemby may not ever lead the league in rebounding, I still think it’s very reasonable to expect Wemby to average a double double throughout his career. The length is too good to deny. So, because of the versatility defensively and generational rim protection, Wemby should be the best defender in the class. His rebounding also should be projectable to at least an average level. But the offensive flashes make him even more intriguing.

The most glamorous side of the ball isn’t where Victor shines quite yet, but he has the potential to be a freak on this end. The most translatable skill offensively for him is the play finishing. It’s such a simple skill that all big men must be at least passable to stick, but it can be so valuable. When you’re a guard facing a double in the pick and roll, it can feel like a luxury to just throw up a lob and have the guarantee of two points. And Victor can sure as heck finish at the rim, especially on dunk plays. It’s a breeze for him to get up and throw down a dunk thanks to his bonkers standing reach and vertical pop. He should be a fun lob threat next to a really good guard. He gets off the floor quick and has a crazy lob radius, getting to balls that most centers wouldn’t even think of. I really like the cutting, too. If Victor has to play on the perimeter, he understands when to cut when rotations are being made to get easy opportunities in the dunker’s spot.

Note: I am running out of characters for this report as I write so I'm going to post Part 2. So as a group let's transition to Part 2 for Wemby's report. Go!