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State of the Heat III


I figured this was a good time to do a breakdown of the Heat since my morale is way up. We're 8-2 over our last 10 games, 2-0 since the All Star Break.

The New Guys

Our acquisitions over the trade deadline and buyout period have led to us making a deep roster. No matter what the injuries or suspensions are, we can always say we have enough. Part of that is having one of the best coaches in the NBA. Part of that is also having these players who buy into the culture. And another reason is having one of the best front offices in the league. During the buyout and trade period, we essentially turned Kyle Lowry and a 2027 protected first round pick into Terry Rozier and Delon Wright, meaning we have two skilled point guards who complement each other, can run offense, and fit within the defensive scheme.

My thoughts on Delon's first game were very positive. Last night he had 13 points, knocked down multiple threes, distributed the ball, and yes, was extremely active defensively. Delon fits in so well with this team. He clearly wants to be here, and it's a match made in heaven. He has the length to stifle some of the East's best guards in the playoffs on ball (Darius Garland/Donovan Mitchell, Jalen Brunson, Damian Lillard, Tyrese Maxey, Trae Young) and the activity and pure want to be a defensive playmaker off ball. And he's definitely not an offensive liability. He's not afraid to shoot, he's not afraid to drive and kick, and he has some craft working out of pick and rolls. Getting him on a minimum contract was an absolute bargain. Thank you Washington for freeing him.

Terry is still a TBD. The knee injury was crushing for him and leaves us with about 25 games left in the season to gain chemistry. The games we had with him were about disastrous (we couldn't get a win if I remember correctly) and he wasn't completely in the flow of the offense, not super efficient either. Still, I believe. With extra depth and great momentum around the team, I think Spo will figure out unlocking Terry's speed, shot creation, and defensive peskiness.

Updates

As for the rest of the roster, everybody is playing well at the moment. Duncan had a bad shooting night against the Kings, but once again displayed his feel for using his shooting gravity to the detriment of opposing defenses, picking them apart in pick and roll actions, playing sound team defense, and being a constant threat on the floor. Jimmy's taking the young guys under his wing and I can feel him starting to generate momentum coming off the suspension and the fact the playoffs are getting closer. Niko has really stepped up. His minutes have been sporadic, but he's improved from where he was at the start of the season and has shown signs of what we wanted when we drafted him, a tall, skilled, high IQ playmaker. And Bam's been Bam.

On the bench, a backcourt of Delon and Haywood will give opposing defenses nightmares trying to protect the ball, and both have been willing to shoot as of late. Jaime seems to have broke through his rookie wall and is back to playing high feel basketball, using the experience he's had at UCLA to dominate defenses. Jaime's success makes teams wonder which career arc they want from prospects in the NBA draft. Would you rather have a guy who comes in right away and gives you instant production and still has potential to continue improving? Or do you go through an entire development process with a player in the hopes that his tools will lead to higher upside?

Caleb has been a constant energy guy for us, gives us extra creation and an ability to impact the game in multiple ways. At times he can be a bit inefficient as always, but you can always use a guy like that off the bench when your main creators aren't producing much. And K Love continues to assauge my longing for Kelly Olynyk to come back, as he's been constantly mismatch hunting, showing past signs of his self, spacing along the perimeter, and adding good defensive team value. He's a great locker room guy all the young guys can respect.

Injured

Right now we have 5 contributors out and yet we can still put together a good 10 man rotation. That says a lot about the depth we've accumalated and what that means for the playoffs. I can't wait until Tyler comes back because he and Rozier desperately need to build some chemistry before the playoffs start. Josh is yet another 3&D spark plug you can put in when you need a guy to impact the game. He's out over the next few weeks with a shoulder injury, but when he comes back and shakes off the rust that's more depth. Both TB and ORob likely aren't playable in the postseason but I'm glad they've still embraced the culture (TB getting suspended backing up his teammates and Orlando taking strides in his development).

TW

The two ways each have their potential, though it might be hard for them to get many minutes as the roster gets healthier. I've been impressed by Alondes. Made the Rising Stars and is another potential two-way guard in the system.

Conclusion

Overall, if the Heat close out today against Portland there's not a whole lot of bad things to say about this roster. it's deep, it's tough, it's balanced, and I think it can make a playoff run. Granted, I watch more Heat than any other NBA teams, and the East is going to be tough to get through. But a lesson from previous years is to never count out the Heat, and if we can duck the play-in we can hopefully get more rest and be inclined to beat some of the Eastern Conference heavyweights.

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