Note: Orlando Magic symbol indicates RJ Hampton, who's on a two way, and Jamal Cain, who's also on a two way.
The Heat come in with soured expectations following the disheartening conclusion of the Damian Lillard trade saga, but hope is still alive in Miami, as we keep optimism in undrafted players eventually leading us to the promised land. This year will be an interesting one, as this season could take plenty of directions. We could tap into the buy out market again, get a veteran big name trade acquisition , run it back and have a disappointing season, run it back and have success, the list goes on.
The Rundown:
My biggest point of optimism going into this season is the development of Tyler Herro. One key aspect of any discussion with the Heat is that they made it to the Finals without him. Herro may have hurt us in some aspects, such as defense, but still, it's impressive when your No. 2 scorer is out and you still make it. Now, things are different with Gabe Vincent and Max Strus out of town, but I still hold faith in a Tyler breakout. He's looked super smooth in the preseason, taking good shots and getting to his spots fluidly, showing development in the off-season. He's taken what happened last season and the off-season personally (but did not cause a ruckus in training camp ála James Harden), and has improved as he does year to year. This is the year where he's going to have to average 25 to keep the Heat afloat during the regular season, especially considering Jimmy's tendency to coast during the regular season. He needs to bring some vigor to this offense from Game 1 to 82.
While I've given up on the notion Bam Adebayo will ever shoot threes, his mid range game has looked excellent during this preseason. Of course, Bam had that skill in his arsenal before, but this year, it really looks like he's relying on it. I feel mixed feelings on this; sometimes I want Bam to just use his size and pummel opponents at the basket. But, if he is more of a finesse player at heart, why not add some shooting touch. He'll be a DPOY candidate and potentially add some scoring to the lineup if the creation carries over to the regular season.
Jimmy Butler is going to do his thing, at least this season. I have little concerns about that. Great defense, great creation, a respectable shot, and playoff clutchness is a top 10 player in the league IMO. The depth will be a point of emphasis. Kyle Lowry has come into training camp in shape, which is a good sign, but the Heat have no point guard besides him and at 38 he needs to be load managed significantly. He's still a league average defender, can get up and down the floor and push the pace, and make clutch shots when it matters, but his lack of scoring output is very worrisome. He and his $29.6 million EXPIRING salary (which means cap room next summer),along with his leadership, may be a valuable asset for a rival team to gain if we make a trade this pre-season.
And at the 4, Kevin Love starts most nights for size purposes, as he can still shoot, still can play defense on most 4s, and still is an amazing outlet passer who can kickstart our transition opportunities as well. I'm glad we at least retained him and got another role player. His shooting is also very valuable to the overall spacing. Old, but still good in our system.
At backup point guard I feel like we retained Dru Smith and signed him to a standard contract solely for the purpose of having a point guard contingency plan, but I expect Josh Richardson to command the second unit, or Herro to play in that role in spurts. J Rich was a good addition for our team, and it's good to see him back in Miami as a depth 3&D piece with some pop. While Duncan Robinson is maligned for his dreadful contract, he'll still shoot and has quietly become better in every aspect of his game: finishing, connective passing, and even some good defensive possessions in spurts. He's a good basketball player, his contract is not.
Caleb Martin is going to be expected to lead this second unit (along with Herro scoring) and I expect him to be better following a disappointing Finals. Caleb, while we may also lose him this season, is a + role player. Can sort of self create, while also providing the necessary skills to be a good 3&d player. And I have the rook Jaime Jaquez Jr. being backup four at least to start the season, as Haywood Highsmith is out for two weeks. I just love his demeanor and he looks so ready for this level. Look for him to provide some creation for this team with his pivots, some pick and roll ball handling, and play finishing, while also being decent in every other facet of this game. With each passing day I love that draft pick for the Heat.
And possibly the biggest acquisition of the entire off-season was Thomas Bryant, who'll finally bring some life to the backup center position. After watching Cody Zeller and Dewayne Dedmon be unplayable in the playoffs at center, I feel like we're going to have a solution to give Bam rest with TB, who's played hard this preseason, has touch, and has shown some rim protecting chops. He looks reinvigorated now in Miami even though you can't switch him like Bam.
As for reserves, while I didn't list him in the second unit, I feel Haywood Highsmith is going to have a role in this year's rotation. While he still faces a lack of elite ball skills, he's shown flashes of shooting , going 9 for 15 in the preseason. If he can do that, along with be the elite switchable defender he is, we're looking at a very good basketball player who could maybe even start this season.
The end of the bench guy are less interesting. Dru Smith was likely picked up for the sole purpose of having another point guard, and he likely won't give us great minutes based on what we saw in preseason. RJ Hampton may be signed into a standard contract instead of him, or he becomes Gabe Vincent 2.0 and takes leaps and bounds. I like Nikola Jovic, but he might be usurped early by Jaime who's more NBA ready. Orlando Robinson is another big body who I liked pre-draft who also serves as a just in case center.
The two ways though, could get legit minutes this season. Cole Swider can flat out shoot, Jamal Cain played some excellent minutes in preseason, and RJ Hampton showed some flashes and still possesses interesting talent. I expect at least 2 of them to get some run in the preseason.
Overall, this roster isn't as good as it could have been with Dame or Jrue, but I feel like it's still actually good, especially if Herro takes a leap. We've got some pretty good depth all things considered, we can field a respectable starting lineup, and we're in the weaker conference of the league this year. This won't be in the top tier of contenders until maybe a trade or unless they prove it, but I feel like we'll slide into the 4-7 range fighting with the Sixers, Cavs, Knicks, Pacers, and Nets for those spots. I'm encouraged that we'll at least get to the playoffs and post a decent record provided good health.
Trades
Trades we'd consider are obviously Malcolm Brogdon to begin, who'd be a good acquisition. Solid defender, can play both guard positions, good scorer, adds additional pop to the starting lineup. For Lowry and a first I'd surely do it.
Reccomend checking Atto's example as well, leaves us with a balanced lineup:
Brogdon - Herro - Butler - Love - Bam
Lowry - Josh Richardson - Caleb - Haywood/Jaime - Bryant
If the James Harden situation isn't resolved we could jump in and trade for him, however Herro, Bam, and Jimmy are untouchable. Lowry and a first could do the trick if the Clippers remain stubborn, but I wouldn't be surprised if we would have to give a young guy or Dunc as well, or extra picks if Morey is greedy. If that happens, I think Pat should back off and stick with his offer considering Harden could be a 1 year rental, may not fit in with the culture, and a bigger whale could become available later in the season.
if Zach LaVine becomes available 100% we should chase for him. whether we'd trade herro or not depends on his season up until the trade deadline.
DeMar Derozan is less convincing to me as his mid range centric game does not fit with Jimmy.
If things implode in Dallas and Kyrie Irving becomes available (with his value being presumably down) I'd be like yes, because we maybe wouldn't even have to give up Herro while adding a slightly underrated defender, a wiz creator, and a guy who could shoot. I know there are some concerns about he fits in this culture, but I feel more confident about him then James Harden.
If Toronto decides to tear everything down I doubt we get Pascal Siakam, not because of his caliber of player but because he just doesn't fit well with the team.
And if a buyout guy becomes available the Heat are always an attractive destination.
That about concludes my Heat preview. Now let's go beat the Pistons.